Determined.

I'm sorry to say it is Swish that has the 50% strike rate in handicaps not me. I have a 46% s/r at average SP of 13/2. A long way off the 80%+ that Guest uses as a guide for vdw. So I am starting to have a look at non handicaps now. I do agree with Guest that temperament is all important, don't go looking for a bet. Wait, and often they will scream AT you. Wishing you the best of luck with your dream!!

Guest.

I have noticed most of the times you have a different class/form to me. It becomes a no bet situation. When we do agree it wins, still think it may be worth getting our heads together. I still can't work out why when Beacon Light had flaws, the race didn't become a no bet. Instead you carried on until you found another horse. Wonder what you would have come up with after you weren't happy with Cropland and a few others?

Swish.

Thanks for the information on the M Pipe book, must admit it is one of the few I haven't read. Re your hypothetical race. you didn't say in what class races the speed figures where achieved. If this is a £50,000 race and the 90 was achieved in that class I would be giving it a hard look. Especially if the 110 figures came from a lower class.

Statajack

Golden Goal, don't see that much had to be taken on trust. Trainer can read the form book, and knows the horse. Golden Goal won the Sandown Race like a speed horse, sat in behind, moved up took the lead at the last. Idled in front and gave the second a chance to get back in the race. Kempton, an easier track better suit to speed, which horse did that favour?

This is turning into the best thread on the net, long may it continue.

Regards, to everyone that is contributing to it

MTOTO,

- 46% strike rate in hcaps with average SP of 13/2 is something to be proud of. That said, I like you am now seriously looking at non hcaps also.

- I have been looking at a couple of the winners you put up namely Alberich and Riddlesdon. Alberich was carrying alot of weight however the performance he put up in his previous race against 2 in form h`cappers ( giving them wgt also ) was far superior to the opposition he was facing this day.
Riddlesdon is a challenge ( at face value ). I`ll have to dig a little deeper.

GUEST

Not for the 1st time and most definately not the last I am a little confused.Why in some instances namely Copeland ( Kingwell ) the class/form is no bet and in other races certain class/form horses are ruled out and others in the race are a bet?
*** I don`t want it on a plate. Perhaps the answer is to evaluate the many races/horses you have named on thread so far, ie - Armaturk, Bacchanel, Manx Magic, Wetherby card, Newcastle card, etc.

SWISH/MTOTO

Have I understood correctly? A 90 speed figure at Ascot is of more value then a 100 at Redcar ?

BEST THREAD ON THE NET ? - WITHOUT DOUBT.

Regards,

Barney,
The proportion of Farmer Jacks to Gunther McBrides depends on the individual. Look back at your records of bets made and you will see them easily enough. Weve all got them. The trick is to remember them before repeating the felony.

Mtoto,
While I agree that the style of a win is important, so is form. Form says Silence Reigns had a chance to reverse placings with Golden Goal on the revised terms. Whether one believes it could do it or not why take a risk? We are trying to avoid risk taking and there will always be another race coming along. This brings us to temperament, what if Silence Reigns had won- as it had a right to do? One then starts to wonder why did I ignore the form book, it was so obvious, how could I be so silly? etc etc. doubts start to creep in when looking at future races and it could all have been avoided by being patient.

Regards

Hi All,

Since my initial postings on the VDW thread I haven’t felt the need to contribute too much. The reason being is that whether you agree with him or not ‘guest’ has certainly got things sewn up, for which he has my total respect. I notice that he has mentioned that he has received some help in the past, as I did; however he has gone much further than I in his quest to seek the answers. That said I do know the important factors that go towards balancing class and form when it comes to VDW.

The problem with answering questions as to why Armaturk, or Bacchanel were worthy of support is that the answer will always appear to be somewhat vague. This is not that the person answering the question is doing so from within a cloud of mystery or secrecy, it is because to answer the question in full would give the game away, which is something that will never happen.

Guest has managed to do a wonderful job of answering questions that have been posed in a way that he has given, as far as possible, a full and straight answer. Better than I could have done, which is again a demonstration of his far superior understanding of the subject in comparison to mine.

To the likes of Determined and others it is worth noting that things aren’t that difficult (when you know how), easy for me to say I know, but it is something that should be remembered when studying VDW’s examples in order keep things logical and simple, because that really is how it is. When VDW stated that hard work was required in order to operate his methods he wasn’t hinting at just the odd hour a day to compile the numerical pictures for each race. No one thing is of use on its own, be it speed figures, of form ratings, or whatever, but there is in my mind one part of the jigsaw that is an essential part of the method. It has been mentioned by VDW, and it will form part of the ‘hard work’ element of the equation.

One thing that I think Guest has mentioned which is well worthy of a second thought is that the conventional methods of form analysis need to be put to bed before you’ll have any chance of understanding what VDW was trying to put across. Which is why if you are new to the game you’ll have a better chance of grasping his intentions far quicker than the likes of those that use such things as collateral form in order to pick winners, or losers!

Mtoto - Part of my answer to your question re class/form has already been addressed by Lee. He is right in that there comes a point during discussion of VDWs methods that prevents one from explaining too much. Not because the other considerations are the holy grail, but because they are so simple and logical that it would almost certainly give the game away to everyone. You have mentioned before about discussing VDWs ideas in private so if you want to email me then here is the following email address guestmail00@yahoo.co.uk

Determined - Again part of the answer to your question is involved in the above and Lees last post. Identifying the higher rated ability horses is easy but we are really only interested in them if they are in form. Form is the big stumbling block as VDW suggested. The majority thought Beacon Light was in form, but VDW took a different view. When you understand why and how he formed that view, things will be much clearer.

I concur with the view that a speed figure of 90 at Ascot is better than a 100 at Redcar. It still only forms part of the jigsaw though.

Statajack/Mtoto - I agree with Statajacks view here re SR/GG. For a very similiar scenario check out VDWs evaluation of Aherlow/Cavvies Clown. Aherlow had already beaten CC and was then on 7lb better terms in the Feltham Novice Chase, but whilst identified as the most likely winner he was left as he was behind other form horses on ability (conflict) including CC. There were other factors though that showed Aherlow was potentially better than his bare ability rating.

Lee - I'm flattered by your comments, but I don't profess to know it all VDW wise. I have gone to extreme lengths though to understand as much as I could of what VDW was saying. As stated above, I agree with what you say about the hidden factors within VDWs methods.

guest

thanks for not telling me i'm wrong that gives me heart and your other point direction.

to all the other well versed and knowledgeable contributors who have been helped please tell people if they are in the orchard.

this for me is the best thread and long may people continue to support it.

to fulham and hedgehog

are you to busy picking winners now to contribute???

A very interesting reply from Guest as always - how true that sometimes the most simple things when known can help us in our quest for profits.
Perhaps we have to much information and think we have to use it all- keep it simple isnt a bad motto sometimes.

In the Golden Goal front I remember being told to think in terms of the trainer - why is he sending his horse on a rematch on worse terms - common sense would say what a waste of time. However he is likely to be underbet in the rematch and possible value and I would assume (dangerous I know) that the trainer must think he has a chance in the rematch. This isnt to say that Golden Goal would be a bet on my terms - but it is a reason I layed Silence Reigns (even disallowing for his shortcomings)

Morning all,

Guest in a recent posting made mention of VDW's evaluation of the Feltham Novice Chase featuring Aherlow and Cavvies Clown.

I must confess that this is one example that I have not come across before, can anyone point me in the right direction to the article concerned?

I agree that this has turned into the most valuable thread I have read on the net. Long may it continue. I have not contributed as much as I ought recently but will try and make the time to contribute more. Trouble is having only recently completed my run of Form books then I'm a little like the proverbial dog with two c**** at the moment with my nose to the grindstone

Cheers

Crock,

The Cavvies Clown/Aherlow example appears in the ''Introduction to VDW Update'' article in Betting the VDW Way. It is a sticking point for me with regard to ''conflict'' as Aherlow was not a bet for vdw but Battlement (which would have been at least second on class/form) in an early example, was a bet, although the ability rating wasn't made known by vdw at this stage. I have not had chance to research either example thoroughly but, at a guess, other factors probably made the difference.

Barney- You will know when you are on the right track when your strike rate increases. It's as simple as that. You certainly don't need to know everything vdw tried to impart to obtain a winning method.

Bensam,

Got it now.
Thanks for your help.

Cheers

Hello all,

Barney - I only recently found out that the thread was not paying members only. In the intervening period it has change almost beyond recognition. The contributions are just great. Long may it continue.

All the best
hedgehog

hi guest

bet you have lots of new e-mail buddies today

LOL

Evening Guest,


Ditto Barney

hi determined

how are you did you find any good things today??

Morning,

I didn`t study yesterdays racing and I doubt I`ll be doing so today.

I`m spending all my time trying to `climb my mountain`. The advice on this thread is pretty damn good, its just trying to put it all in place.

I know you and many others are going through all the old VDW examples. I unfortunately haven`t got the luxury of having the appropriate Formbooks. My library starts from 1984.

I`ve made the decision to try to obtain them but that in itself I know will be a tough task.

Do you think the many recent examples named on the thread by Guest, etc are sufficient to work from or are the old books that essential ?

**** I note you have put up Amarturk for the Arkle. If I`m right given his age he`ll receive all the allowances which won`t do him any harm.
I tend to agree with you at this stage although on the day I guess the prevailing conditions may have a say.
**** one horse I`m very keen on is Mr Pipe`s Polar Red, ie - could we have the winner of both the Imperial and County hurdles ? These trainers ae creatures of habit.

Swish,

I think I`ve located both the books you have recommended. I`ll be on the phone to both suppliers this morning. Cheers.

Old Formbooks

I know this subject has been discussed in the past but for the sake of repeating myself. Any help, assistance would be greatly appreciated.

Have a good day all,

Regards,

Morning,

Very brief message, I`d be very interested in any comments you have on the following 2 races

(1) 22/08/01 race no`4170 York Motability Rac Rated Hcap winner = The Whistling Teal.


(2) 22/09/01 race no`4863 Newbury Courage Hcap winner = Albuhera.


At your convenience I would value your thoughts,

Thanks in anticipation,

Regards,

Morning,

Both books secured and in the post to me.

Thanks very much.

**** for those who are not aware of both books were traced via the following website,

www.abebooks.com

Regards,

******** there is a sports book fair at York racecourse this Sunday between 10.30 - 4.00 where understand many horse racing books will be availible *******

I`m only 70 mile away but unfortunately I cannot get there. If anybody ends up going and finds any of the old Raceform/Chaseform annuals I`m seeking could they perhaps take the details of the suppliers and let me know.

Cheers,

Sorry - late in the party! Which are these two books? Are they specifically about VDW? If not, are there any books on VDW?

Many thanks.

(Again apologies, very new in this game!)

Hello, Makeorbreak,
No the books are not about VDW but are a brilliant read and will give you a strong insight into what trainers and bookies get up to. I think the only book by VDW is Systematic Betting which is more a booklet, than a book, well worth reading though. I understand there are books on VDW written by other people and a compilaton of his letters to RFHB. Other members will tell you better than I,
Yours
Swish

Hello there,

The 2 books are not directly re` VDW. (see pg 43 of this thread).

There are several books availible on the VDW all reasonably priced. You will be able to obtain the books from Browzers, ie - www.browzers will find their website.

As you can see from this thread the VDW METHODOLOGY has massive interest. Several people who contribute to this thread certainly know there stuff.

Sadly, I`m no one of them.

Regards,