Guest.

In my last post I ended with a statment that didn't make very much sense. I said the class/form horse in the 3-10 at Huntingdon, I of course meant the 2-50 Wincanton. In saying that I wonder which horse you made the class/form horse in the 3-10?

Fulham.

I was only bracketing the two examples because they don't appear to fall into the method Guest used to explain how the selection was arrived at in the PK race. Top ability coupled with consistency. In both races there appear to be consistant horses with higher ability ratings.Even after taking the flat prize money into account for LFR

Pipedreamer.

I make one bet today

Regards

Hi Mtoto,

I'm probably missing something, and apologies to you and Guest as appropriate if I am, but I'd have thought that the essence of what Guest has said about Prominent King also covers Stombolus. That is, there are stateable grounds (at least one of which in the Prominent King example I know you dispute) for identifying each as the clear "class/form" horse for the relevant race.

If my understanding of VDW is right (which I accept is a big IF), the same must apply in relation to Love from Verona. With Rifle Brigade, it took me ages to work out precisely what those grounds are: at present, Love from Verona seems even more difficult.

Hello Guest,
Interesting comment re Copeland and Bacchanal. We both agree on Grey Abbey but I thought it was Copeland the good bet with Bacchanal the most likely winner in its race but with a reservation. At least we come up with the same horses!
Regards,

Swish

Eh?

Swish Armaturk was a certainty owing to him being the class/form horse with every factor going his way. He was also consistent and had the added bonus of a 6lb pull with the only concievable danger. Interesting that the trainer not only won the same race last year, but also a few years ago with Flagship Uberalles who went on to Arkle victory.

Tyndarius at Market Rasen on 5/2/02 made no appeal as a likely wager, as did none of the other runners in the race. Raced previously in Ireland and obviously of some ability but not much else to go on.

Mtoto I will answer your questions later today re Strombolus/LFV.

Lee

[This message was edited by Guest on February 22, 2002 at 02:47 AM.]

Guest,
Firstly thank you for replying. I realise now your computer is acting up. You have tried to reply to Mtoto but it just will not do it. I understand this I have had trouble posting lots of times
swish

Lee - I'll have to answer later as there appears something wrong with the post page.

Dear Guest,
Appreciate your comments, but I did not know that VDW ever took trainers into account. This is complete news to me. Also I guess you reckoned Armaturk was a bet because it had come second in an 18 but it did not score much of a speed fig in that event, in fact its best sf was only in a 6.
Regarding TYNDARIUS and the other runners in the race, why did they make no appeal?
I am not trying to be "clever" in this instance. I am trying to say that by my limited understanding of VDW the first and second in that race had every chance. I also pick losers. I do not deny that for an instant. But if one gets a 25-1 winner on occasion one has to have 25 losers before it becomes invalid,
Yours
Swish

Lee - Judging from your last post, I would say you already know one of the factors that remains unseen by the majority.

Determined - Your evaluation of the race proved to be correct. I don't think we came to our conclusions though via the same route and criteria. Understanding the parts of the method in full gives us the confidence to only strike when we know the odds are in our favour. My principle view on the Kingswell was that Copeland, whilst the class/form horse, would struggle to give 4lb to the 2nd on class/form Hors La Loi who had form in good conditions events. Last years winner was a minor danger but had too much weight really.

Swish - The trainer plays a big part in VDWs methods. In fact VDW considered all the relevant angles. The point is that no single factor can be the decider in making a selection.

Other points re Armaturk were the conditions of the race. He got a handy WFA allowance, plus no penalties were incurred for previous wins owing to the conditions of the race. ie penalties only for races of C and above.

As mentioned to Mtoto before, speed figures are just a rating and thus a guide only. They do act as a useful tool for finding possibles in some of VDWs methods but they are not a golden key. Topspeed had Armaturk with some good figures at top courses and Hit & Run with some better ratings at not so good courses. The Cheltenham run proved Armaturk was up to this level on a lesser course. There were other important considerations though which I won't spell out.

The Market Rasen race didn't contain the sort of animals worth looking at. Some big prices do pop up now & then, but I favour staying in the waters packed with small fry and some bigger ones rather than casting my line too far for the whoppers.

Fulham,

You should be able to find the reasons why Love From Verona was a good thing if you follow through your thought processes shown in your recent posts. Guest has touched on the factor in his earlier posts and it's also touched upon by vdw in the Golden Years.

just to say that I noticed in raceform weekly (or whatever its called since the Sporting Chronicle Handicap book) that in the forum a bloke had various formbooks for sale - just in case VDW devotees might be interested in purchasing back issues if relevant

Mtoto - The first point regarding Strombolus/LFV is that both races were handicaps. An obvious point that may seem, but a very relevant one with regard to how we evaluate form associated with the respective races run. Yes there were higher rated ability horses in the fields but were they in form and were they capable of performing under the prevailing conditions ?

The 1979 Lanzarote handicap hurdle was similar in some respects to the 2002 running in which the classy Copeland was unable to give the weight to the second season novice, Majalis. Persian Crown and others found this same factor beyond them when the lightly raced Love From Verona landed the spoils 23 years ago. Note LFVs seasonal debut at Lingfield when down the field in a race qualifier.

Strombolus, a consistent novice chaser, had similar traits to Beau who won the Whitbread in 2000.

Remember, consistency is not form. The consistency part though provides us with the probables, hence VDW bringing our attention to Weth Nan and Spartan Missile.

The Huntingdon 3.10 on Thursday showed the class/form horse (Adelphi Theatre) with factors against. Likewise there were factors against the favourite. The winner was not a total surprise truth be told, but not a betting proposition. Those who have discovered the "unseen" factors will know why Another Chance was not quite the chance his odds implied. Also there was the novice factor to consider.

Statajack - There were one or two flies in the ointment for me re Copeland at Newbury. Bacchanal had form against much better class and an excellent course record. Same goes for Grey Abbey. It will be very interesting to see how we agree or differ in the future.

Guest you said that Copeland was the Class/Form
horse in this race but Hors La Loi ran in a grade
2 race lto and Copeland a Grade 3.Copeland has
a rating of 638 lto compared to Hors La Loi who
ran in a class 297 race .On abilty ratings Copeland is rated first but has never won a grade
2 race but Hors La Loi has.So is it not possible
that Hors La Loi was the Class/Form horse in this
race.


Maggsy

Swish
I`ll see you in the chat room Saturday night
about 12 if you want a chat.


Maggsy :

A very good morning to all,

GUEST

I do not understand the method(s) in full and perhaps I never will however with your continued `guidance` on this thread maybe one day I will. Long may your constructive comments continue.

Onto today`s racing. If the weather at Kempton is anything like the snow storm I`m seeing at present ( S****horpe ) then racing could be in doubt.

I`ve very briefly looked at the 2.00 and 2.30 races at Newbury and with my novice head on I believe the class/form horses are RED ARK and GOLDEN GOAL ?

Both I feel have factors against them, ie -

Red Ark - can he uphold the form with Irbee given the weight turnaround ?

Golden Goal - 7 IIbs worse of with S Reigns and cannot uphold the from.

***** I believe we have a similar situation to Thursday`s Kingwell hurdle in that the 2nd class/form horse namely S Reigns has the beating of GG and to me it would be an investment today?

***** re-reading some of my VDW literature last night for the umpteenth time and thinking back to your comments earlier in the week should the 2.30 be left alone ( temprement )?

IM AM NOT ASKING YOU TO REPLY BEFORE RACING AS THAT WOULD LOOK AS IF IM ASKING YOU TO GIVE ME A SELECTION BUT I WOULD REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR THOUGHTS SOMETIME LATER AT YOUR CONVENIENCE OF COURSE.

Also, speed figures would not appear to be a key factor which surprises me. Surely in h`caps speed plays a very important role. I`m not asking for you to comment on this point but I may come back to you later once I have finished re-evaluating some of my past flat investments and Mtoto`s list of winning horses.

Regards,

i think that this horse has been placed to win palawn

Morning,

Do you mean Palawan ? And if so it is a race I`m keen to evaluate if i get chance later.

Unfortunately racing sometimes has to take 2nd fiddle, ie - bloody decorating !

Regards,

Determined - Both the opening races at Kempton today demonstrate some interesting points regarding taking things at face value.

The 2.00 Emblem Chase is a conditions event over 2m that has 2 bands of penalties for races won in the past 17 months. IE Both Red Ark and Desert Mountain have the 12lb penalty due to winning B grade races. Ichi Beau has a 7lb penalty for winning at least one C grade event, though he has in fact won 4 chases in the past 17 months. Irbee has no penalty having not won a chase since February 2000 at Kempton.

The consistency part of the method reveals no great insight this time with Ichi Beau on 8 and the other three scoring 10. There are 3 form horses in the shape of Red Ark , Ichi Beau and Irbee. Last years winner Desert Mountain has been below par recently though ran well at Exeter in November behind Best Mate. Top on ability is Red Ark 72 then Irbee 70 , Ichi Beau 64 then Desert Mountain on 45.

The first thing to note is the conflict in the numerical picture. Class/Form horse Red Ark is now 16 lb worse off with Irbee and 18lb worse with Ichi Beau for 1 1/2 and 2 lengths respectively. To bet in this situation is going against the odds. Red Ark is improving a bit and it is not impossible for him to win, however the 2nd and 3rd on class/form are closely rated and on much better terms. No clear selection emerges here and the market will be very tight anyway.

In the 2.30 Grade 2 Novice Chase a similar conflict emerges. Top on ability rating Bilverdin is not a form horse and couldn't get near Thosewerethedays getting 6lb last time over C&D. Golden Goal improved to win a Grade 1 race at Sandown last time just denying Silence Reigns but that horse has a 7lb pull now. Thosewerethedays is behind on ability and was a 10/1 winner last time in lesser class, but a form horse nonetheless. There can be little doubt that Silence Reigns looks the most probable winner though again the class/form horse Golden Goal cannot be totally ruled out. Crocadee defied a penalty for the same connections last year in the race and it is not out of the question that Golden Goal might do the same. At the likely odds I would leave Silence Reigns to run.

Again I have not spelt out all my reasonings and thinking on the above races, but they do hold some interesting clues within the form for both events.

The feature race at 3.35 is a very poor renewal and the 3 probables on consistency all have factors against.

All in all a bad card from a punting point of view. But nobody is twisting our arms to bet of course.

A brilliantly detailed reply, far more than I expected and before the races as well.

You are a true gentleman and one this board CANNOT do without. If ever Gummy decides to charge us a fee I`ll happily pay yours ( as long as it isn`t too much ). Joke !

I`m in the middle of decorating but I will respond later.

*** Commanche Court would of eaten these for breakfast if he`d been allowed to run even with 12-00. That said I`d rather have a fresh horse for Cheltenham where he`ll run a decent race.

Regards and thanks again for your response,