Hi Determined

"VDW stated that we should always allow a consistent horse one bad run ( not 2 mind )."

I'd be very grateful if you could point me to the source for this VDW dictum.

Regards.

Hi everbody

Thank you for your wellcome and advice.

Barney

What are those class ratings?

All,

if the study of VDW is supposed to lead to the same selections as VDW would have chosen,how come some say Tillerman was a bet?

His last two races look fixed to me!

Held up at the rear and then given too much to do at the end.

Looking and learning.


Best regards

pkboy

pkboy,

the numbers are representative of the horses highest value race win.

for instance if a horse has won a race which is valued at £9800 then its rating is 9800 divided by 100 which equals 98.

this is one of vdw's way of measuring class.

where exactly did you get stuck with VDW's methods?

keep looking here you will learn

and why did you give up?

you seem to look at the right end of the race!

What are you doing up at this time?
This is the time when all us people who know talk our secrets.
Yours
Swish

The " not 2 mind " was just me making reference to Tillerman`s last 2 runs.

VDW didn`t actually say " allow a horse one bad run ".

In The Golden Years, article 39, VDW spells it out, under the sub heading 1st x 5 in the betting he states,

" also, use discretion in the case of a highly consistent horse that suddenly puts in, what might seem at first, a bad one "

To identify Tillerman as a form horse I accept that I have stretched VDW`s words along way.

That said, lets look at his 2 races prior to Saturday,

Newmarket - 8/11 fav` and on his Ascot running he should have won the race. The Ascot race was only 11 days previous where he had produced the best run of his career having a hard race in the process. I take the view that race left its mark therefore I was happy to discount the NKT` run.

The £78k h`cap at Ascot on 27/07/02 saw him attempt to carry 9-11 against a field of in form improving h`cappers. An impossible task and not given a hard time.

Summary - the NKT race came too soon and he was placed out of it at Ascot.

The Gdwd race on Saturday in comparison to The Queen Anne Stks was a drop in class against horses who were either running over the wrong distance ( 7 furlong horses ) or didn`t have the form to compare with `T`.

FLORIDA PEARL

Guest, one assumes must have taken a similar view with Florida Pearl who prior to Aintree had finished 4th of 5 and 11th of 18.

Cheers,

Nice to hear from you again.

I didn`t look at Rawyyan`s race yesterday but hopefully one of the experts will respond.

Cheers,

Hi Determined

Thanks.

I was wondering whether it was that section to which you were referring. I think that, on reflection, you will agree that VDW's phrase was rather more specifically targeted than would be apparent from your initial comment, and I'd wondered if VDW had made a further comment in which he'd widened the scope of his "make allowances" advice.

I've heard the more general advice referred to during tv racing coverage, but there it was attributed (whether accurately or not I don't know) to the trainer Mark Johnston.

Regards.

morning all,

determined ask yourself this question! Why was florida pearl considered in form and beacon light not?

VDW did say there were many ways to evaluate form and he showed the Roushayd example to illustrate EXPOSED form.

The "at first" bit is the key!

Another pointer i have recently found at the end of a roushayd example.


"the march of time takes its toll and I have for some years been less able to phsyically withstand the rigours of the track, finally excepting the situation during the 1990 flat season."


Why is VDW putting himself in ROUSHAYD'S shoes?

swish,

sorry, i wasn't up quite that late. wouldn't have minded a little chat.

hello headlines

you must like VDW you never pop up anywhere else

According to my interpretation of the methology
the following horses stand out;
2.50. Ripon STRAWBERRY PATCH
3.20 Ncas FELLOWSHIP
3.1O Epsom CASTLE SHANE (Almost a bet)

i,m not being argumentative,but i wouldnt have confidently wagered on T as it was he was very lucky,to my mind there were better and more clear cut opportunities in other races,going of the subject do you have any comments on TORASAY SPRINGS running at windsor last night

i must be going mad,i meant yarmouth not windsor.

Determined - Tillerman and Florida Pearl did indeed have a fair amount in common, just taking their last 3 runs into account. Those who would point to Beacon Light should realise that in contrast to the above 2 horses, Beacon Light was attempting something he had never done or come close enough to doing. T & FP were dropping in class to collect from their recent best. For example was there a better performance within the field for the Martell Cup than FPs KG win ? Also was there a better performance within the Celebration Mile field than Tillermans shortest of shds at Ascot against the 2001 Goodwood winner ?

Guest

i accept the point you make and it is clear for all to see. the point i was trying to make, apparently not very clearly, is that both FP and T were in form irrespective of their finishing positions and beacon light was not even though he was second.

with tillerman, as i am sure you must have recognised, in both his 7f races he had some gas left in the tank whereas BL did not

high class 7 furlong races are generally run at a faster pace than high class mile races therefore if tillerman had "some in reserve" in a fast race then he would have more in reserve in a one mile race of lower class.

hope that clarifys my point

The question is: Would vdw have backed it or let it run? I think we all know the answer to that, whatever personal reasons people could find for backing it.
regards,

back to the drawing board for me then,i could,nt have confidently have backed T it,s been a great month using the methods,well,the way i percieve them of course we miss some good bets,but i thought caprichio was more clear cut,among others

Hi Guest.

Good to see you have reconsidered about posting to the thread.

As usual a couple more questions.....

Do you agree with Barneys statement about Florida Pearl, and Tillerman both being in form after their last runs?

Your statement about FP being the horse with the best performance in the Martel. I think there was another horse with an equal performance in the race (this year). He failed on vdw's filters, as did FP. Even if he not failed, it would have been a no bet situation, as the course was wrong for him. It was a bit like the BHL/ WL scenario.

Back to good old BL, you have now mentioned he was not good enough. I said that back in November (I think). I said he couldn't win in, or out of form. You said he was rejected because he was out of form. If he had beaten SP, would he have been in form? Would he have then been the c/form horse? Would he have been vdw's selection? I don't think so, because of the reasons you mentioned today.

So many meetings, so many runners, and I can't find a bet!

Be Lucky

Mtoto

have a day orf thats what bank holidays are for!

mow the weeds, paint the car, nail on some wallpaper....give the brain a rest you cant do horses 365 days a year!!!!

Been out since early this morning.

Statajack,

VDW may have let Tillerman run and maybe thats why he reached 80-85%. The fear of a tactical/very slow run race was the only reason I didn`t back Tillerman. If I had been confident the race would have been truely run I would have had no hesitation in backing him.

If ever I come a cross a horse with the best form running against opposition with factors against which in my opinion all the runners yesterday had then he`ll be a bet for me provided all the requirements are met, ie - course, going, etc.

**** that statement may change once I get around to studying all the old examples ****



Barney,

I have never studied the Beacon Light / Prominent King race yet. Perhaps I should.



Investor,

Torosay Spring was a horse I was very keen on yesterday and although I didn`t evaluate the race VDW wise I expected her to win and 2/1 was availible.

That said, I also expected The Tatling to win yesterday but another `bloody` 2nd ( beaten fair and square ).

Cheers,