Hello All,

Does anybody think like me that Tresor de Mai improved by about a stone on its previous performances today?

All the best
hedgehog

Swish
After 12 if your still up then.


Maggsy

Hello hedgehog
I myself thought he has improved considerably, The only positive sign i can think about this horse is that he is a course specialist.

Barney & determind
Weldone with your views on IDEAL DU BOIS BEURY i hope you had a little on at 10s
Tony.

Dear Maggsy,
See you then, then,
Swish

Swish,

Thanks for your kind words on my `evaluation` of the Farmer Jack race. I very rarely bet over jumps and today was no exception but I`m so engrossed with the thread I wanted to have a go.

My understanding of VDW cannot match many of the posters but slowly but surely I`ll get there.

Tony Lovatt,

Thanks for your comments with regards the above mentioned race.

**** I wonder how many horses Mr Pipe wins with when out of the h`cap. IDEAL DU BOIS BEURY certainly won like it was `expected` although the market told a different story.

**** one thing is for sure; Mr Pipe certainly has the line on the h`cap hurdle form what with this winner & Copeland.

Where ever POLAR RED runs next I feel we should all take notice. Could it be the Imperial & County hurdle double ?

Regards,

didnt have a bet today tony to much confusion for me!!

Hello Hedgehog
I thought Tresor de Main was the best bet of
the day for me.I didn`t think the others had
conditions in their favour.Did you think
Banker Count was a selection?

Maggsy

Re Guest.

I was never for one moment suggesting Guest was anything but genuine. I was only suggesting the selections where manipulated to fit the examples. First 5/6 in the forecast, top 4 on ability, and the top 3 on consistency. As I understand it, those where the guidelines set out by vdw. If I am wrong I apologise, and could someone tell me where I am going wrong? PK was not in the top three for consistency, or in the top four on ability. He was top on another set of ratings and joint top on the other, these rating where never discussed in detail. They where mentioned before the ability rating, and I fail to see how they can be of no importance. The reason given for eliminating Beacon Light has to be open to discussion. Correct in this case, but many examples can be found where it would have been the wrong conclusion. If vdw didn't stick to the guidelines, and this is just ONE example. How can everyone be expected to make the same decisions about the same race?

When I started looking at the PK race, I started from a different angle. I was looking to see if BL really had gone over the top, and for me it was not proven. Something did stand out, and that was something I had learnt from vdw. I have applied it to all of the examples I have looked at, and it gives the selection every time. The ability rating in it's present form was introduced later. As I have said, it is better than nothing to judge a horses ability, but I don't think it was the yard stick vdw used. As I get into more examples, if I'm wrong I will admit it. Out of the eight examples I have studied it has been right eight times. I am working on the ninth, and hope to have the final answer to that soon.

Regards

Dear Mtoto,
A pleasure to see you back on the board!
All the best
Swish

Mtoto,

I guess I am one of the `posters` you will not be familiar with so I hope you do not think I am cheeky / out of order in my question.

In the thread `Getting Winners` on 13-11-01 you named 7 horses which were highlighted by your method.

You make reference to 2 other horses which won for you on the day of Alberich. You do not name them but having had a brief look at the 7
horses you actually named I feel the other 2 MAY have been Grangeville and Top Cees.

I am not asking you to confirm because that would be intrusive but I do believe they show the same attributes of the others.

I will be researching all your selections over the next few weeks and I`m convinced they will teach me alot.

***** your postings are always an enjoyable read for which I thank you.

NB - I backed Golden Wells taking the 20/1 in the morning ( not e/w ). Never mind,

Regards,

Determined.

One of them is right, the other I can see where your coming from, but the race was too hard. It was not the selection anyway. So there is still another one if you care to look.

See you are still finding the winners Swish, best of luck

Regards

MTOTO,

Thanks for your speedy reply. I will have a/n look.

One point I would like to raise, ie - you state the `race was too difficult`. Could I ask, does the number of runners in a race immediately decide whether a race is up for evaluation or not ?

My personal thoughts would be no as good class consistent horses regularly appear in these races.
The danger is of course the not so good horses can get in the way.

Also, did ATAVUS ( one of the most improved horses in training ) cross your path last season?

NB - if I am asking too many questions please say so. Rest assured I do not want anything put on a plate.

Regards,

does anyone have the forcast sps for the cobnut handicap stakes on the 2nd august 1979??

thanks in anticipation.

Barney

The Sporting Life forecast for the race (4/8/1979)was as follows:

7/2 Mohock, 4/1 Easter Girl, 11/2 Royal Inheritance, 7/1 Secret Express, 8/1 Tucson, 10/1 Game Sheila, Laki Lady, 12/1 Sky Grove, The Old Fellow, 16/1 others.

thank you fulham i just knew you would know!!!

Barney

You were lucky. The only reason I know is that about a fortnight ago a colleague asked me to look up the data for him next time I went to the Newspaper Library. Its not a race I've studied - yet!

where is the newspaper library??

the forcast sp just add to my confusion,i need the whole race card.

Barney

The Newspaper Library is in north west London, a one minute walk away from the tube station between Burnt Oak and Hendon Central on the Northern Line The telephone number is 020 7412 7353, and that gives a recorded message re opening hours, etc.

Now, you are probably wondering why I haven't named the actual tube station. Well, I've tried three times, and every time I post the name is replaced by asterisks. I think it must be because the name is very like that of a controversial tipster/bookmaker, whose initials are those of the circular successors to audio cassettes, and I guess that Gummy must have arranged for the software to prevent any mention of his name. In this case, the software is being too clever by half!

[This message was edited by Fulham on February 19, 2002 at 11:08 PM.]

LOL

Hi all,

To Swish; apologies for not answering whether I felt Copeland was a bet when it placed at 16/1. Well, if I told you that the biggest price winner I’ve had during this NH season is 7/1, and the biggest price loser I’ve had is 11/2 then I’m sure that will answer your question!

I only use the very main elements of what VDW put forward in order to attain a high strike rate at the lower end of the market. That’s not to say that all I do is back odds-on favourites, because that would be far from the truth. I realise that for the purists how I do it would never do, but it does for me.

I see The Old Fellow has been mentioned and this in my mind was more of a lesson in narrowing the field. As VDW indicated, it was a scrubber race that he used in order to put a few points across. Certainly there are factors in the form reading that are common too much that he shared but for me it isn’t one that should be high in people’s priority of analysis.

Off on a tangent a little, the VDW saga really does depend on what folk want and how they perceive things. Although I know someone that has, I for one never wanted to devote my whole life in unearthing everything that he put across. For me there had to be an end game. For some there seems to be no end game, and therefore they’ll never know if they’ve reached it, and therefore I stopped when a most profitable solution had been found.

If you study the examples he gave you will definitely find some answers. Whether they are the same as anyone else that is a different matter. But if you can achieve what VDW said was attainable then in my mind you’re there. Whether you employ Speed Ratings or whatever, as long as you cut the mustard, it should not matter.