Epiglotis - You obviously didn't read and understand my last post. I have never proclaimed to be an expert on VDW or racing for that matter. I have though , taken the time and trouble to try and understand how the game ticks and what VDW was actually trying to impart. As a consequence I know only full well the effort required and the frustration that haunts anyone when something can not be understood or seen.

It took years for things to come right and now I often see people raising subjects they are confused by which once confused myself also. I have made suggestions to them that could help if they really thought about it , not for any personal gain on my part , but because I know how it feels to be stuck with the VDW methods. Others have done likewise for me in the past , but no one ever spells it all out. Barney has the right idea on that scenario.

Hello Barney
I take your point about the horse that classified
beat.Thanks for that.Still no sure if i would have
seen this before the race though.It could have
been that sirdorton had a bad day and thats why
classified beat him by 11L.PM and TS both thought
so at the time and downrated sir dorton for that
race.We now Know with hindsight that Sir Dorton
ran to form and that Classified was the better
horse.

cheers for the imput


Maggsy

Guest

Please be aware that recent comments do not reflect everyone's views, and I am very grateful for the hints you have given in relation both to Rifle Brigade and Cornish Gale.

Happy New Year.

barney
You say VDW is straight foward but if it was that
straight foward why have so many been confused
and not understood the methods.
i`ve had another look at Armaturk and i can now
see why it was a good bet.So hopefully i have
learnt something.Thanks for helping.


Maggsy

It was never my intention to submit a post that would come across as if ‘I know it all’, this I most certainly do not. However, to be truthful the ‘Classified’ race was a fairly simple race to assess in my opinion and form the conclusion that SYS was never close to being a bet. Yes it was clear top on ability, but that’s about as far as the positives go. I don’t wish to sound blasé and make out that everyone should have come up with the same conclusion because I know that some 3 years ago I would probably have come up with SYS, and most certainly backed it. It has been said many times before on many message boards that things aren’t going to be spelt out. For one, it would be a feat in itself to explain the methods in full, and secondly, it’s a very valuable commodity that requires much work, a fair amount of disappointment to understand. What a few others and I have tried to do though is dispel any myths that it is as easy puzzle to crack. If you’ve ever managed to obtain a degree, or completed the Rubiks Cube without the assistance of any books then you’ll know the level of work that is required. Mtoto stated that anyone reading this thread should have come to understand there is a lot more to it than just adding up a few figures; the sooner that people realise this then the better it will be for them. There have been mentions from some that unlike myself, and Guest I think, they are at a disadvantage as to not having past form-books. The answer to that one is quite simple – obtain them. You really have to put yourself out in order to find the answers. What I will say though is that it is similar to riding a bike; once you know how to do it, it really is quite simple.

I hope 2002 will see others start to understand and gain from VDWs letters and articles, after all that was his intention. All the best for the New Year.

to mtoto,fulham,guest

without your pointers to current races,veiled or otherwise, and open discussion, those without the form books still have a chance.

vdw didnt give 20 yr old examples he always gave the most recent card so that the information was there for those who cared to dig.

i for one appreciate the efforts and input that you make knowing full well it must have been hard sought and any hints are generous as you neednt give aynthing at all

reference point

would you like to give us your interpretation of the method used by g.hall.

he used the numerical platform and found 'thekey' after only a couple of letters(which were based on the numerical picture).

vdw in his reply congratulated him and said that this method gave 85%-90% winners and confirmed that his selections were good things.

how could the vdw methods be understood before 80% of the explanetory information, and several years of study, was published????

Barney,

It has already been stated previously on this thread that many have missed so much that was said within those first few letters by VDW. Barring the first letter, which mentioned Prominent King, VDW also brought to our attention 7 other good things. The one factor that many get hung up on is the Ability Rating. It hadn’t been mentioned up to when G Hall spotted the so-called ‘key’. By the way, don’t get drawn in by what G Hall said in that letter. VDW pointed out in his next letter, and many subsequent letters, that the ‘key’ was a myth, and so it is. Going back to the Ability Rating, remember it is only a ‘rating’, and as such should be used as a guide. The numerical picture was purely designed to narrow the field down. There are many factors of worth within those first few examples, however, I doubt whether G Hall had spotted them all, but the one he did spot and that which he referred to as the ‘key’ is fairly plain to see. I don’t know, but it is possible that he fell lucky with the selections that he mentioned in his letter, in that they all turned out to be good things in VDW’s eyes.

Bare in mind that it was not a system that VDW was sharing with us, after all it would be impossible to achieve 80 – 90% strike rate using just the numerical picture that he gave us, it was his knowledge of how to read form that is the real key.

Guest and Reference point or anyone else
do you achieve a 80-90% strike rate and
if so how many bets do you find in a average
month.

maggsy

I am only really learning about VDW in hcps, but have found that recently, picking ones WITHOUT ALL the credentials, (exactly what VDW said NOT to do) I have been managing 50% winners on paper, BEFORE the event, and 50% winners on paper going through old results. There appear to be a bet(s) virtually every day. However if you waited for ones with ALL the credentials, I should think that it is within the realms of possibility that 80-90% could be achieved. Personally though It doesn't appear to me that one comes up very often, but like I said, I am still learning,
Yours
Swish

Again, it has been stated before on this thread that VDW didn't write anything for the sake of it. In fact I for one feel that what he did write came from much thought and definition on his part. Like he stated an 85 - 90% strike rate is most definitely achievable. As to the number of bets, again he stated that between the start of the flat season in 1978 and up to around the 1st of June he had place 32 bets, of which 29 had won. The start of the flat is a time to be cautious and so it is fair to assume that VDW would have gone on to place even more bets in ratio to those that he referred to once the flat season got fully under way. So there is the answer. Personally, during the flat there aren’t many days when a good thing does not appear from the necessary study, however, there can be many days go by during the NH for one reason or another, as we are experiencing at the moment, when nothing materialises. It is during these times that temperament sorts out the men from the boys.

I found this board before Christmas and downloaded and printed off the 15 sections to read over the festive season. Now I see we are up to 19!! Even the John Grisham lies unopened because of you lot.

Anyway, fascinating stuff and I hope to join in once I have caught up!

Swish.

If you have a 50% strike rate in handicaps I would like to be the first one to congratulate you. Just shows what can be done if you work at it!! I can only manage 40%, but the average starting price is 6/1. The other thing vdw's examples seem to suggest that on the surface his races where not clear cut, in every one there appears to be alive danger. The deciding factor is vdw's understanding of form. I am working slowly through the examples, and so far I have been able to follow the logic. One thing that does make me wonder is the way, on occasions I disagree with the "experts". I can see a pattern, using the same pattern I came up with Kates Charm. I have been told I am wrong, everyone is of course entitled to their opinion. I do wonder why they are so sure, they are the only ones that right. I didn't make up the pattern, but it is there for all to see, if they look. The one thing I do agree with, is I am not prepared to broadcast it in an open forum. I must admit to being a little surprised my offer to discuss it in private has not been taken up. Is this because they fear that they may have missed something? That is where we differ I would be happy to share with anyone that has really worked at trying to understand vdw.

Reference Point.

I think perhaps you where lucky to acquire the form books by buying them years ago. They are like gold dust, and just about as expensive. I think that is because the lure of finding vdw's "missing link" is just as strong now as years ago.

Barney.

I understand your thinking on Classifieds form, but don't read to much into the form of Sir d'Orton. He is a maiden over hurdles, only ever won 2 chases from 13/14 races, well hammered in the one race that you are taking as good form. I still can't see how a winner of a E hurdle at Plumpton, can be put up as the likely winner of a grade A at Newbury. The only thing he had going for him was a trainer who had the nerve to place him there. The race was won in a very slow time, and I don't believe SYS ran his race.

Regards

reference point

with regard to f chester's letter in which he details the numeical picture with very basic form reading with the response by vdw that he had gone a long way towards the ultimate conclusion. again without years of study.

why do these people(confirmed by vdw)gain the necessary knowledge from the first couple of letters are they just lucky?????

mtoto

kates charm was a nice bit of form reading, if kates charm had finished last season 31 or 21 all the vdw guys would have probably agreed it was an outstanding bet.

i cant get the form books either but i am starting to think i dont need them. i may not get them all without the form books but i will get enough.

with regard to sys he was never going to run his race that was the point of giving it a miss

18k won well dropped to 10k where he struggled to beat an out of form opponent in a tough race then upped in class again but i dont know i'm probably wrong.

Barney.
Sorry to butt in,I don,t usually look this thread up anymore,not cos I know it all,but cos I know sod all,just a thought though on a previous point.
You know when you were at school and there was always 2/3 kids in the class that the answer seemed to come easy when all the rest of us were struggling along,there were also people I knew that could just about write their own name that could do the rubik in no time,ask them how and they couldn,t explain they just did it.
Thanks for your help Barney last year,
Kushti Bok to everyone on this thread,hope you all find your answers,
Quinelle.

Barney

A possible answer to your question on F Chester (I'm not being delphic, just speculating) is that by the time he wrote in April 1979 he had studied in depth the examples (nearly a dozen) VDW had given by then, and the four given by G Hall and confirmed by VDW as "good things". There really is a wealth of material in those first few VDW contributions.

lol

Unlike some I thought Kates Charm had a good chance in the Chepstow race and if memory serves me right the prices on offer were good enough to make a profit coupling with Majed. Personally, I chose to leave the race alone. I agree that there will be some divergence of opinion based on fact between those who use the vdw methods but, in accordance with vdw, there shouldn't be much if any.

Although I have two degrees ( the second one I wrote my own book), I do not believe a good education is a necessity in undertanding the methods but Quinelle is spot on when he infers that some will be more adept than others. Many fall head first in making wild assumptions without knowing the facts and they will always trail in last place when trying to understand. You don't need all the form books to find a profitable method as others would have you believe because many of the clues vdw gave are so pertinent in the later letters that just reading and understanding should prove enlightening.

As a final note and from a purely selfish point of view, it is irrelevent to me if the methods are conveyed to the masses through either veiled hints, straight talk or whatever as I have always profited from racing. A drop in strike rate is inconsequential to me as profits are more important and ultimately temperance really does sort the men out from the boys.

I'd like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a happy New Year and hopefully a prosperous one to those still learning.

would all vdw'ites please indulge me and give,what in their opinion,is the most beneficial paragraph to would be vdw followers