the particular point i want to investigate is the fact that his previous method identified the four probables to confirm what i already think i know will be the answer.

Barney,

Do you feel that the question you'd ask would give away the answer?

in part

barney you still have,nt replied to my email yet it,s been a week now chap regards.

hello everyone i thought this horse was an extremely good bet, the only thing that stopped me from putting money down,was it had,nt ran for 3 months,can anybody tell me if vdw mentioned anything about days since a run.yours in anticipation investor

Investor,

VDW never had any hard and fast rules. The emphasis of his methods were on class, form, and probability.

Many of his bets were wagered after a horse returned from a long lay-off, and indeed many that he supported were first time out horses, Rifle Brigade being one that has been talked about on the forum previously.

For me at least, Intersky Falcon was one of those that I felt should be left to run in what was a tricky handicap. Although he was expected to win he only managed a narrow victory in class 33 LTO and that was not against much. Now up against the likes of Renzo who although had been out of form previously he was going well before falling LTO in class 54, and today was running off the same mark. As it happens one followed the other home, but with a couple of other factors against I wasn’t prepared to get involved in the race.

sorry mate had a busy week just been made redundant

thanks for your reply,but i would like to cast your mind back to a couple of quotes, look where a trainer places his horses/evaluate the odds not just the forecast odds, and don,t go against them. in my opinion this horse was in the same mould as grey abbey,when it won at ayr.cheers look forward to hearing from you again barney sorry to hear about your misfortune,i hope you resolve it quickly mate good luck.

Despite my last post just prior to the forum going private, I have been persuaded to relent and join thus entering the VDW arena once more. I see it even has it's own section now. I also notice some new names, which is always good, some of which seem to be well versed in the ways of our good friend VDW.

Mtoto thinks I have adjusted my findings to fit the Prominent King example. This is not so, as stated many times. Perhaps if I said once again that whilst I have given some clues as to my understanding of VDW and what to look for, I have deliberately not mentioned certain factors that need to be carefully considered. From what I have read on the thread so far, Statajack and perhaps Lee have a good idea what these extra considerations are. VDW did in fact mention them but did not spell them all out.

In my view Grey Abbey was a good thing, but Copeland wasn't quite strong enough to bet on his own. On the same day Bacchanal was also a good bet. Last Saturday, whilst not a great price, Armaturk was a racing certainty.

It is good to see so much activity on the VDW thread and I look forward to further healthy debate on that most fascinating of subjects namely VDWs winning methods.

Dear guest,
If you don't mind me asking, why was ARMATURK a certainty,
Yours
Swish

dear guest,
Also I wouldn't mind asking, what would you have thought of TYNDARIUS 5/2/02 FONTWELL 2.0,
Yours
Swish

The Armaturk type of bet is where I poach the majority of my winners, but not always at that price. He was the class/form horse in the race and everything went his way. This had the markings of a VDW certainty written all over it, and in my mind it gives us another example of watching how the trainer has placed his horse, and was the winner in the race. Some may have felt that the price was a bit short, but when you look at what it had come up against and how it’d performed in comparison to the opposition on the day, 4/6 was snapped up. For those who wish to study an up to date example then this is a good one to get your teeth in to.

Guest, I've read all your postings, and it's good that you've stayed on!

Morning all,

With my novice head on I`ve attempted to evaluate the race. Here goes,

Ability Cons Class OR
last run
13/8 Copeland 282 4 638 156
7/2 Azertyuiop 164 8 ? 297 155
B Joe 63 4 277 150
H L Loi 199 8 297 153

All 4 qualify for closer scrutiny. What does the form say ?

My opinion,

Azertyioup cannot beat H L Loi on all known form, ie - the weight turnaround on the twice they`ve met is massive.

B Joe - too many questions, ie - distance, class.

Copeland - form of his life and carrying less weight than last 2 runs. Unproven against this opposition ? That said, good timefigure last time and further improvement likely.

H L Loi - form of last run in Gde 1 very good. added to that down in class and weight today.
****** Has to be the value bet at 7/2 doesn`t it.

ANY COMMENTS PLEASE. I WILL NOT BE INVESTING AS I TEND TO CONCENTRATE ON THE FLAT.

Regards,

Glad you are back - junior!

Copeland is the class/form horse today, but there are some factors against. Are the conditions right for him to beat Hors La Loi ? Did Azertyuiop show his real capabilities last time ? Can that horse give the weight to higher rated horses ?

Conclusion - too many questions for me.

Swish - I'll answer your questions later today.

Guest,

I am honoured to receive a reply from you as I take all your comments very seriously and long may your very helpful messages continue. Thank you.

You say Copeland is the class/form horse ( many of which get beaten because of other factors )

Would I be right in saying that Copeland is today trying to do something he has not done before, ie - win in this class ?

Also, am I right in saying that HLL is already proven in this class. Added to that his last run suggests to me he`s near his peak and I believe his very clever trainer has had this race in mind for sometime. Maybe ever since last year when HLL was supported in the market to win this race when carrying 11-10.

**** I certainly feel very uncomfortable not agreeing with you but if I invested over jumps which I do not then I would still be backing HLL today.

Am I brave or very stupid ? We`ll know later today.

NB - I`m going back to the thread to learn more from your excellent posts.

Regards,

Hi Guest,

I believe that you've made reference to an important point within your last post, and whilst for Armaturk the factor went in his favour, for copeland it is a negative. This isn't to say that the latter horse will not win but it is something that should be borne in mind when looking for the winner in the race.

Guest.

I'm very glad to see you back. If my last two postings caused you any displeasure, I apologise. Manipulated is a strong word, and I didn't mean it in a derogatory manner. It is just because so many people believe word for word, everything vdw is CLAIMED to have said.

I thank you for the examples you have given. I would go as far as to say you have given enough clues to help anyone solve the puzzle. I have gone back and checked every one of your examples, and I think I understand exactly where you are coming from. I would like to ask if you have done the same with the examples I have given? The first 6 examples vdw gave hold true to your method, but they also do the same for me. I know I have a different thinking to you, but I must emphasis ALL my thinking is vdw orientated.

I would like to ask about 2 vdw examples that don't seem to hold up. Stromblus and Love From Verona. I am not talking about S position in the forecast, and I may be wrong. It is very hard to read the statistics from a photo copy of the Sporting Life! LFV doesn't seem to hold good using yours, or my method. I appreciate you would not want to go into too much detail on a public board, and it crossed my mind you may be happy to liaise through Fulham. That is if Fulham is happy for that to happen. We must both agree Fulham puts in enough work, not to be classified as someone that is waiting for it too be handed on a plate.

Interest to see we disagree on the class/form horse in the 3-10 at Huntingdon, but we have both come to the same conclusion, leave the race alone!

Regards

It is my opinion that there are no vdw bets to be had today.Even though it may appear at first glance that there are.Any comments?

Mtoto

Its early days for me, but I'm inclined to think that you are wrong to bracket Strombolus and Love from Verona. The first is, I think, a reasonably straightforward VDW example. The second has, I must confess, got me puzzled at present, but there is plenty of material to explore (eg pre-hurdle career flat form - if, indeed its relevant, and whether the NH form of some of those shorter in the betting forecast adds up to very much). I'm far from despairing of working it out.