JohnD - In my view VDW highlighted the ground factor in Pegwell Bays case because the horse had shown he couldn't handle it in a lower class race already. This had no effect on the strength of his recent form though.

Grundy - VDW appraised a horses entire career, but most of the time is spent concentrating on recent form.

Mtoto - What does it matter how Drumgora raced in the pierse hurdle? The fact is it came a close 3rd in one of the most competetive handicaps of the season before obliging as favourite against Prominent King. It's ability was there to see as a fact.

All - If vital concealed clues such as Smart Tar have been missed by the vast majority then VDW was indeed correct that most passed over a lot of his statements thinking them of little consequence. He even tells you what to look for in this missing links brief summary.

Go right back to the start and ask a simple question. Why did VDW feel it necessary to mention Sea Pigeon and Drumgora but none of those behind Mr Kildare last time out?

In the so called Prominent King letter, letter 8 page 372 of this thread, VDW writes "the only race in my paper which was 'on'", what would those who have viewed the relevent cards conjecture were the various and likely meanings possible for VDW's 'on'?
Secondly, G.Hall is said to have discovered the key, it is assumed that the key refered to exists in either the history of the horses concerned or in the conditions of the race under examination rather than to exist within the words as written by VDW. Would anyone care to touch on this matter?

Epi, it was the only meeting "on" that day due to the rest of the meetings being called off due to bad weather mainly frost.

M.o.M

Thanks for that. It explains the abscence of alternative meetings but how about other races at the same meeting? It's possible that as he wrote the letter there was only one race left to run, otherwise it could concern qualifying horses, class of race, size of field, or some other such variable. Have you any ideas along those lines?

Hi Epi,

On the day in question and in order of the card the races were as follows,

Maiden Hurdle class 9 (£966)
Maiden Hurdle class 9 (£966)
Handicap Chase class 8 (£897)
Erin Foods Champion Hurdle class 90 (£9,010)
Arkle Challenge Cup Chase class 16 (£1,655)
Handicap chase class 69 (£6,990)

So as you can see it was the most valuable race of the principal (only) meeting, which as you are aware is what VDW suggested as a starting point for sorting out the races to concentrate on.

M.o.M

Thanks for those further details.

Without getting into long and vague discussions about old races, I will try and answer some of your points re Pegwell Bay.
PB had beaten Smart Tar lto under very similar conditions to the 88 Mackeson, and it was reasonable to suppose that he would do so again.
What is not reasonable (IMO), is to assume, at that stage, that he was a better class horse than Smart Tar, UNLESS Smart Tar was inconvenienced by the ground.
In my view, it is illogical to presume that if horse A beats horse B in conditions that place horse B at a disadvantage, that horse A is a better horse per se. I may be wrong in my assumption, but it does appear that you and others are using his previous defeat of Smart Tar (On the wrong ground) as a yardstick, whereas I am saying that the same decision could have been reached by any reasonable judge of form, without the use of ability ratings.
I hope the above makes sense.

Regards,
Johnd

Surely vdw would have considered Be My Belle,A good betting proposition today at Gowran Park.I think the writing was on the wall for Foxchapel King,Giving 18lb to the next in the h/cap and 2 stone to Be My Belle.On looking at the form,I personally think she was a cracking bet.Vdw said the permutations were endless but they certainly looked to favour B.M.B.As they were with piccled the other day,I certainly agree with guest on that one.

Fulham
These are two examples of the percentages or points about them,I tried to get across when we had our correspondance R.e Pegwell Bay.

Why is giving 18lbs to the next horse in a handicap significant
This is something that doesnt make sense to me at all
After all a horse at the top of the handicap is always giving considerable weight away to the bottom weight in any Hcp race

What if that 18 lbs had been reduced to 9lbs because of a 9lb higher rated horse in the race

Would that have made it any easier than giving 18lbs away???

Or have I got it wrong

Can anyone remember ARKLE?

He would be given 12-7 in a hcap
and
the rest 10-0 and he'd still beat them!!

Or is my memory playing tricks again?

cheers IMP

Hi all
Has anyone got any views as to whether collateral form played any part in vdw's evaluations.
There seems to be a lot of examples where this would seem so.

Chris B

Chris

Would you care to name a couple of VDW's examples where you judge that collateral form may have played a role?

Your memory certainly isn't playing tricks with you.Unfortunately I've only ever seen video footage of Arkle and he was indeed a truly magnificent looking horse.I seem to remember Oaksey saying they had to re-write the handicap for him. Class will out I suppose.

Pk example

But What are we using to judge the class in collateral form?
Race class
Ability Ratings
And the reasons for getting rid of BL are still thin by my reckoning
Sorry

In situations like today,A majority of the time not all.You will find that horses giving this kind of weight will get beaten,A good recent example is Royal Auclair.Its o.k giving weight when the horses it's being given to haven't really got the ability to capitalise on it,But in my opinion Be My Belle did have the ability.Have a LOOK AT THE ULTIMATE WHEEL OF FORTUNE and read the comments on canny danny.

Boozer

Where was collateral form used in the Prominent King example - assuming I'm right in thinking Chris means assessing two horses by reference to their performances in races against a third horse?

I am sorry but I just cant see the logic in what you say
I dont think I have the form book for Canny Danny
What year was it?

Yes youre right
The true defination of collateral is as you say I think
Too many lagers tonight

guest you mentioned drumgoras race before the prominent king race,as being very competitive. how do you judge the relative class of the race using competitive elements,van der wheil stated the only other horse which came close on a class basis was vouchsafe in his referance to roushayd, was this because roushayd had shown improvement against vouchsafe on the second occasion,using collateral form? i would welcome all members advice thanks grundy

john duncan

I am pleased a race such as this is on the card because it shows a situation where it is unwise to bet. Weight is a great leveller and the class/form horse Canny Danny faces the opposite of Wing And A Prayer in the previous race. Not only does he give over a stone in actual weight to the next in the handicap, but almost double that to the horse (West Tip) which has half-a-stone in hand of him at the framed weight.

However good a horse is they don't overcome this handicap often enough to carry my money. To bet in this situation is bucking the odds, this sort of race is a punters' graveyard. If you refer back to his previous race you will note the difference. Here he does not give significant actual weight and in fact has a pull of 31b on handicap. A very fine wager and he did carry my money.

Two Quotes

which has half-a-stone in hand of him at the framed weight.

and in fact has a pull of 31b on handicap. A very fine wager and he did carry my money.


Half a stone
pull of 3lb on the handicap

Based on what?

Ratings

Statajack Explain