Investor

Is that the last 2 posts, the last 20 or all of them ?

Should be a good day today.

111
.

a very good morning to you,iv,e not started looking yet,still nursing a bad head but hopefully,something will materialise or not,but there,s always tomorrow

sometimes you dont need numbers their names are enough!

Mtoto - First off, as I have stated a few times before, VDW did make an uncharacteristic error with those Boxing Day examples in that Bonny Golds career was listed wrongly in the Sporting Life resulting in a mistaken ability rating. He was a form horse though, but of course VDWs crosschecks picked up that class/form or not (as the case actually was) he was one to leave.

The two horses VDW suggested were good bets to make had all or most of the elements required in favour. Stray Shot had run twice that season both in November and having his first few chase outings. The latter run was just a day before the deadline for penalties in the Boxing Day race he won and against Warner For Leisure, a horse well worth looking at in relation to the Carved Opal scenario currently being discussed. BY way of VDWs methods, Stray Shot was not considered likely to beat WFL, but against the opposition on Boxing Day it was easy to see why his trainer didn't mind him going for his first win over the bigger obstacles with topweight in a handicap. It's all about the relativety factor. The situation was quite different to Beacon Lights later in the season after quite a few runs and in a top class event.

Fulham - Whilst it may not be a popular view, I believe far too much emphasis is placed on the jockey especially over jumps. Tony McCoy is undoubtedly a racing wonder and master of his trade, but far too often he is credited with the win rather than the four legged beast that actually ran its heart out. yes, I'm sure he does get that bit extra on occassions in a tight finish, but to suggest he can make a difference of upto 4 lengths over 2 and a half miles on an obviously under pressure runner is stretching it a bit and smacks of the old ingrained dogma that litters racing. In any event, even if that was possible, the fact is it didn't happen and coupled with Carved Opals record the facts paint a clearer enough picture. Had it been the last fence then maybe there would have been casue for concern, but it wasn't.

Mtoto - Out of interest, would you agree with the view that Fayr Jag is the class/form horse in it's race today ? Also would you say the same about Atavus ?

questions questions,is halmahera on the boil,can steenberg overturn reel buddy or will gateman sneak between them,can storming home realistically or logically be beaten? is fayr jag being asked to much? relatively can daliapour win or is mubtaker on fire? thinking out loud again,iv,e still got time to come to a conclusion.good look everyone

forgot to mention persian punch,can,t leave him out can i?

Guest.

Neither horse comes into my calculations today. They are not c/form horses for me, I'm not playing in either race today.

I will get back to you about your previous post later.

If you play be lucky.

well barry dennis comes up trumps two weeks on the trot..bless him.

Guest

You've got me puzzled. Unless you have more info. than is in the Form Book, we don't know what distance Carved Opal was behind the eventual winner when he fell. Neither do we know how much either horse had in the tank at the 3rd last (though you clearly attach more significance to "ridden" than I do, and I attach more to the later comment, "every chance"). Frankly you are drawing a particular conclusion (certainly a very possible one, but only one among others) without sufficient evidence.

As to your general point re jockeys, its an area where its impossible to get rigorous evidence, for obvious reasons, but in general I agree with you. However, I do make exceptions, and am always particularly comfortable when a horse I back is ridden by Tony McCoy, and similarly I'm rather wary when he rides one with a chance against one I've backed. The "margin" between McCoy and the other top jockeys may only be a few percent, as it is between Woods and other top golfers. But that few percent can and does make a decisive difference from time to time.

Regards.

Guest,

how much did you win on reel buddy?

As I said, thanks for the reply. In fact I have nothing to add so my apologies for waiting so long to say nothing. It used to be VDW thread style but now I suspect 111 is right and my anachronistic tendencies are exposed.

i see your,e on the board,there seemed a few good oppurtunities about today,i hope you filled your wheelbarrow.i could,nt split reel buddy/steenberg so made a book,any comment would be appreciated.

Fulham - I think you are still missing the point. VDW based his selections on what horses actually did or do on the track. At the time Carved Opal departed, Beau Ranger was already in front and the fact that nothing else could get to him up the hill suggests, given how VDW viewed things, that Carved Opal wouldn't have conceded 21 lbs and passed him either.

Four horses were noted as having "every chance" in that race namely Carved Opal, Classified, Kathies Lad and Bishops Bow. Kathies Lad, beaten 2 1/2 lengths by Carved Opal at levels prior to Cheltenham, was giving Beau Ranger 24 lbs but finished 8 lengths behind him adding further evidence to VDWs view that Carved Opal probably would not have beaten Beau Ranger in any event. The comments are only a guide. The conclusions are drawn from real factual evidence on known events.

Barney - I didn't back anything in the Hungerford. I was merely trying to point out that whilst Atavus had the highest ability rating, he wasn't a form horse and could not be the class/form horse. Fayr Jag didn't have the highest ability rating, but was the class/form horse. Unfortunately he appears to have missed a golden opportunity by rearing and unseating his jockey at the start. The eventual result strongly supports this view, but that's racing.

guest,

atavus hadnt run against a six on the trot group one winner either had he? at his wrong distance

investor,
steenburg met ROG at 100/1 and was 10th granted at only 7 1/2 lgth,at trip that could suit.Just james showed his leval.

RB met ROG at 33/1 and was third btn 4 lgth but showed a lot a the distance of todays race. some improvement that.APPARENTLY HES GROWN WINGS?NOT

surely this horse is the benchmark, top of the tree, pinnacle?? against which ALL other performances should be measured?

REEL BUDDY scored 102 in a 157 A race.
STEENBURG scored 90 in a 43 A race.
Think about it!
Yours
Swish

For once I understand you and think your talking sense.
Please have another go,
swish

i know exactly where your coming from with the s.fs,that wasn,t the problem there was something in steenbergs past form that put doubt in my mind,but thanks for the pointer anyway