Barney,

You seem to have missed the point again. I was asking you to explain why he was the only one at the races. I except VDW was showing another x check. The funny thing is you say just like PK, i agree they both work my way. I say my way because I think it's the VDW way, but no one want's to see it. Guest explained it using s/f and I think everyone else that understands VDW would except if you want it to work from the c/form method you have to use them. For this race at least

Guest,

I didn't say you rubbished my selections, I said you didn't rate them. I have to ask why do you think you are the only person that understands VDW. I'm sorry but I find that very arrogant. We had a little spat about Katies Charm you say it wasn't a VDW selection. I still disagree, I concede it may not follow your thinking. That doesn't mean it fails as a VDW selection, it fails as a Guest selection. It had everything I look for, and the things I look for are ALL in the books. I have read every post you have put up with great interest, but you have never posted anything to convince me I am making the whole thing up. It's there in black and white, the only difference is I am reading the words that were written. Ok some of the examples don't work using the method. I don't know if it was on this board, but I have read, one of the other ratings was speed. It would be impossible to crack both sets of ratings. As all the examples were VDW mentions his ratings, the winner was top rated in both. I am happy to work with speed the way he said, and I am sure I won't be far away. None of this is to say I'm not still learning, but I am learning the way he really thought. I'm also not spending hours trying to find out why in form horses are out of form (because they have to be as he eliminated them) so the c/form method works. i. e BHL wasn't a form horse because the course and distance was wrong (he was running against a Kempton specialist) nothing to do with his race before. You say if he had won that race he would have been the c/form horse. I don't think so, the wrong course would still hold.

Be Lucky

Chris

I'm not at all sure why VDW made the comment he did about Pegwell Bay possibly winning again, other than the likelihood that the quality of PB's win impressed him.


Mtoto

I may be misunderstanding your comment about BHL, and if so apologies. But are you saying that BHL wasn't a form horse for the 1985 KGVI because the course and distance were wrong? If so, I find that surprising, given that he had won the same race in 1984, incidentally beating Combs Ditch and Wayward Lad on the same terms as he met them a year later. (During that intervening year, Wayward Lad had not run at Kempton, so if it was him that you are describing as a Kempton specialist I find that surprising, too.)

On the other hand, from VDW's class/form approach, there is no difficulty in seeing why BHL was viewed as not a form horse.

3.10 Chelt
You say that Poliantas has the best form in the race, and I would agree; but then you go on to say that there is conflict doing it the c/f way, then maybe the c/f way is wrong?
IMO Katarino has not shown anything like the form needed to win this, for a long time, and Ballinclay King surely needs softer ground to be at his best.
Of course, the c/f fans may see it this way, but not usually until after the race!

Thanks Barney
Surprising that Homeson was'nt a form horse, maybe it was down to being off the track for to long.

Cheers
Chris

Just to show the process I use in little more detail, here is an evaluation for todays big race plus some comments on other races.

Chelt 2.35 Grade 2 Chase 6yo+ class 464 3m 1 1/2f Good to Soft 6 run

Bacchanal.....14 (5?)*....Ab=216*
Behrajan......13..........Ab=112
Cyfor Malta....7*.........Ab=270*
Foly Pleasant.15..........Ab=85
Valley Henry...3*.........Ab=114*
Gingembre......6*.........Ab=178*

Looking at Cyfor Malta who has the highest ability rating, we can see that whilst he carried a big weight to victory first time out this season class 580 over 2m 4 1/2f, he didn't run anywhere near as well in the same class of race next time against better horses. Not a form horse for this race and even though he won it in 99, he has been well beaten in it twice since.

Bacchanal is 2nd on ability rating and his 3rd in the KG last time is the best performance in the race. He won 2 from 4 last season including the class 348 3m Aon chase at Newbury, but 3rd in the KG again and unplaced in the Gold Cup. FTO this season he won a grade 2 hurdle at Newbury over an extended 3m before the 3rd to Best Mate and Marlborough in the KG class 870 3m. The first 4 home in that race are all better class than any form horse in this race. However, he isn't as good over fences as hurdles. He is the class/form horse though.

Gingembre had a very long layoff before coming back at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall class 290 and running very close after a bad blunder earlier on. The race was won by Marlborough and festival winner Hussard Collonges was 2nd, so relatively a good performance given the time off. He then went to the Hennessey class 609 3m 2 1/2f and again ran a blinder in 2nd with 10-13 just beaten by Be My Royal a 33/1 shot of apparently little ability at that time. So a form horse, but note where all his best form and wins have been produced. Also note the recent sps of 14/1 and 16/1. Should he really be 7/2 for a class 464 grade 2 chase ?

Valley Henry comes next on ability. This horse has won 6 of his 10 chases, finishing 2nd in another and failing to complete 3 times. Has done little wrong since the spring though winning all 3 races including class 238 at Wincanton over 2m 5f and 109 at Sandown over extended 3m latterly both races at odds on. Has beaten horses rated better than him so the facts say he is improving. Taking on better class/form horses here though so this will prove a real acid test.

The other 2 are currently inconsistent and outclassed anyway.

So the conclusion is that the class/form horse Bacchanal hasn't got everything his way, but will be a force to be reckoned with. Gingembre is 2nd class/form but again has factors against. 3rd class/form Valley Henry is on the up and looks the one to take advantage if Bacchanal goes the wrong way. It's possible a book could be made with Valley Henry and Bacchanal, but the call for me is to not bet.

The Cleeve hurdle is a step up in class for all runners and the class/form horse is Classified. However, whilst he looks very likely to beat Eternal Spring this time I wouldn't bet money on it. He was 6/4f in the farcical lower class event before Christmas and will now be shorter in a much better class of race. No bet.

In the 3.10 hcap I make the class/form horse Katarino, but without much else class/form support. Horus is 2nd class/form and has won a decent race relatively speaking on the course. He had too much weight over a more demanding distance last time when favourite. Poliantas has one of the best performances in the book albeit with less weight, but it was in much higher class on this course. He won a decent race next time with more weight and faced an impossible task in my view last time getting 4lb from Edredon Bleu. Lady Cricket has performed well in better class, but she couldn't win a lesser race with topweight before so why should she today?

I'd be looking towards both Horus and Poliantas, but a no bet race for me.

There are 4 horses I'll be backing today through various lines of investigation. They are Altay at Lingfield, Skippers Cleuch at Ayr and both Tees Components and Europa at Doncaster.

All the best to everyone having a bet today.

Do you want me to include these 4 as VDW bets or are they irrelevent to the statistics re employment of the method?

Graham

Once again, our judgements as to form and non-form horses coincide, and it is encouraging to see that they mostly coincide with Guest's.

The only point of difference - and here I reached the same conclusion as you - is in respect of Horus in the 3.10 Cheltenham. Like you, I have him marked down as out of form, by virtue of a disappointing run lto when seemingly not beaten by anything of particular quality. I am sure that we would both benefit if, later today, Guest feels able to expand on his assessment of Horus.

Personally I find the major races today all too conflicting for a bet, but one or two of the supporting ones offer some possibilities.

Good luck.

Hi all,
Guest, I hope you don't mind but I have just printed off your last post which is the first one of yours I have seen since joining where you try to help by giving more detail for people to ponder.
My bets are few and far between at the moment because I'm still trying to learn and I don't want to put myself in the position where I think that this doesn't work and go off it rather than own up to my own failing.
The race I looked at today was the 1-25 at Cheltenham where I thought that La Landiere had everything going for it. I notice that they(the bookies) have made Irish Hussar favourite but surely he is a false fav. here as his form doesn't compare to LL.
LL. is 2nd on class behind Ideal du Bois Beury who is out of form.
LL. has won in better class than this and the way he has won says he is still improving.
Would appreciate it if I have got this wrong you could tell me why or if you just disagree tell me why.
Thanks again for the help and keep up the good work.
Se you soon, Mike.

could i just say on behalf of myself and hopefully others members of the board a big thank you for excellant evaluations and continual appraisal of van der wheils methods i really appreciate your help, grundy

john duncan

I said a while back that Mrs reveley had something in mind for this horse,And patience has paid off,I took the 5/4 aswell,I put it on another thread has a dutch.But couldnt resist doubling up

Lady Cricket, one to Mtoto, I suspect?

Johnd

Did you select Poliantas via your "tactical speed" theory which was so successful with Agilis and Compton Emperor the other day?

Nice one, well done.

Guest
Thanks for the detailed analyses, most of what you say makes good sense, and it is good to see that some members are prepared to post pre-race.
It would seem though, that your pre-occupation with weight steered you away from Lady Cricket?

Did Poliantas run at Lingfield today?

Johnd

I'll take that as a no, but you obviously used an equally successful ploy but not, I fear, from VDW's approach.

I didn`t take you as the sarcastic type.

I`d be interested in your comments on the days events.


Johnd,

I like you suspect Mtoto has had a/n very good day.


Guest,

1/4 = not a good day but I`m sure you have far many better days than not so good.

Fulham,
Many thanks for your continued help. My reasoning re Horus was indeed in line with yours.
As a beginner and looking at the betting forecast for the 3.10 it looked too competitive but when you are learning these are exactly the ones to get your teeth into. Truth is it took me a few hours but it is worth it particularly when one receives feedback such as yours. Thanks again.

Guest,
Thanks very much for your post today. My analysis compares closely and of course this gives anyone such as myself encouragement and of course valuable help.I would also echo Fulham's sentiments and like to ask for a little more guidance on your assessment of Horus.

Kind Regards

Graham

JohnD,
Just spotted your post. thanks for confirming my thinking. I found it a difficult race to analyse with loads of conflict.Not surprising given that it was sponsored by Ladbrokes.

Cheers
Graham

The fact that it was off course so long is a negative, its seriousness depends of course on the opposition.

This is not the reason however that its not a form horse for that race.

there are some similarities with jim thorpe in the pegwell bay race and wayward lad against little owl come to that.


Hope this helps

Mtoto,
I was interested in your comments to Guest early today about whether your bets fail not as VDW selections but as Guest's. Looking at Guest's 4 selections today I would have to say that for me (with the possible exception of Tees Components), his bets all failed as vdw selections themselves.
TC failed on one of my ratings and the top 4 of the ability ratings were covered by a spread of only 6 points-rather a risk supporting an odds on shot in those circumstances despite the horse's Nov 30th run I would have thought.
As for Skippers Cleugh a quick look at the ability rating compared to A Piece of Cake would have been enough to put one off, while Altay and Europa did not even make the top 4 for their respective ability ratings and should not have qualified as bets on those grounds alone.

Guest,
I can understand your thinking in choosing Europa but that performance was over an extra 3 furlongs and the numerical picture alone if you'd done it would have shown Europa as a poor choice. You pooh pooh the idea of ratings support but then pick a horse 6th of 7 on ability.
Rather than inform Mtoto as to whether his thinking is in line with VDW's writings, maybe you should go back to basics and practice what you preach.

For those interested, it may be hard work but completing the numerical pictures for all the main races today would have pinpointed 3 contenders that came through the process, La Landiere, Superbe Bleu and A Piece of Cake.
Whether the 13lb rise in the handicap for its last run put anyone off LL as it did me, all 3 horses could be called "the winner in the race" of their respective races. Its all there if you write out the numerical pictures and dont take short cuts.
regards,