To be honest I cant really see too much difference in Johnd and Fulham's points of view. I do think though that too much emphasis is put on finding the class/form horse as opposed to looking at the race as a whole. To be sure, the c/f horse is the one most likely to win but vdw said "providing all else was right, naturally."
His overall formula stated consistency + ability + capability + probability + hard work = winners, isolating the c/f horse gives you the first 2 parts but where does Royal Auclair come in relation to the capability and probability aspects? Then consider Golden Goal and Fondmort in the same way until we come to Poliantas. The horse fulfills all, repeat all credentials to win this race so whatever route was used to approach the race there should still only be one conclusion.
Both routes where VDW ways, as the Pegwell Bay example shows. A second numerical picture can be created as per that example which is along the lines of Johnd but both routes still led to Poliantas.
regards,

I am really pleased you didn't tell Devon View about his ablility rating, otherwise he may have got a complex, and not pissed up.

Epiglotis

Alberich may win today, given a forceful enough ride, but has more than once been found wanting over this c/d in the past more than once. I would consider him better over Southwell's 2 miles, but he is unlikely to get many opportunities off his mark.

If we change "consistency" to 'reliability' and "winners" to 'profitability' then we're left with five types of ability, one for each finger. The only problem is the "hard work", that rather destroys the aesthetic of the formula, so I propose we throw that one out.

Luzcadou is a NR.

The "Hard work" aspect is simply being bothered to consider the first four aspects properly.
regards,

Well Done EpiG!

Thanks, I think that's the first time I've ever had an acknowlegement for successfully going against the VDWists.

Guest,

Sorry, I've only just caught up with my reading. Well done on Saturday, but the only race of yours that I looked at was Spirit Leader's, which incidently didn't even figure in my top half dozen. I'm afraid I'm totally mystified at how you guys find them. It seems to me that the more certain I am about a horse's chance the more certain it is to lose. The odd ones that win generally come when I'm hard pressed to choose between three or four and then sometimes I make a lucky guess.

Again today, I thought Historg looked very strong, providing it put in a clear round, yet once again it was beaten by a horse that I can see no reason for winning.

I've been at this game for well over 40 years now on and off, so I'm used to picking losers. But like I say, how you guys make these ideas work is totally beyond me. Whenever I think I've picked the right one, like Ravenswood, Quazar and Storm Damage on Saturday for example - which I was strong on - they seem to be the wrong ones.

Still it's just as well there's millions of guys like me, otherwise teh bookmakers would have no money to pay the likes of you.

Again well done.

Cheers

Oldtimer

Guest,

Sorry, I've only just caught up with my reading. Well done on Saturday, but the only race of yours that I looked at was Spirit Leader's, which incidently didn't even figure in my top half dozen. I'm afraid I'm totally mystified at how you guys find them. It seems to me that the more certain I am about a horse's chance the more certain it is to lose. The odd ones that win generally come when I'm hard pressed to choose between three or four and then sometimes I make a lucky guess.

Again today, I thought Historg looked very strong, providing it put in a clear round, yet once again it was beaten by a horse that I can see no reason for winning.

I've been at this game for well over 40 years now on and off, so I'm used to picking losers. But like I say, how you guys make these ideas work is totally beyond me. Whenever I think I've picked the right one, like Ravenswood, Quazar and Storm Damage on Saturday for example - which I was strong on - they seem to be the wrong ones.

Still it's just as well there's millions of guys like me, otherwise the bookmakers would have no money to pay the likes of you.

Again well done.

Cheers

Oldtimer

Dear all,

Before anyone questions me after Blue Mystique winning. It's quite simple. My AW method has nothing to do with studying form or class. It's just a matter of picking horses from in-form stables that have a good record at the track. Maybe I'd better give up all this form study and just stick to that.

Oldtimer

Good afternoon
There's no need to be flippant,Like i said i can understand your logic behind that one,Ithink you ought to read what i post a little more thoroughaly.

epiglotis
well some you win some you lose,Iv'e had a great run over the past week,And would not have backed the grey dyer even in hindsight,But nevertheless well done.

Good afternoon
Thankyou for mentioning what i consider to be a very good example of what vdw was trying to impart i.e Pegwell Bay,Bless him, good luck to you sir,And take care

Good Afternoon
No matter what you think you may have found,Be assured you are going to get losers along the way,That my friend is an absolute certainty.

Evening All
I often wondered why Guest kept going on about human error,Well i committed it myself today with Kerry Lads,The weight concession should have been enough to tell me to leave the race alone,But i completely misjudged the scenario,Still there's always tomorrow.

A refreshing post. Nice to see some common sense creeping in. Poliantas was a good thing using VdW's equation, and anybody who thinks they use this method and didn't get the winner ought to start asking themselves a few questions.

Investor
I aplologise for my earlier flippancy, but you were banging on a bit. Are you trying to set a new record for the number of posts in a week?
Luck to all.

well done, I hope you backed them!

Good evening
I can see where your coming from,I haven't gone back very far either,But a bit of constructive criticism never hurt anybody,I also believe poliantas was a good bet last week And i'm glad that statajack and yourself also feel the same way,In fact from the beginning of this month i feel it has been very good for the methods,I looked hard at devon view and there is a big similarity to how i view the other picture,But totally different to rooster booster and lygeton lad,Anyway i'm banging on again,Iv'e been quite on the thread for a while,Just making up for lost time,Although i dropped a b.....k today.Still iv'e got the rest of the week to come

Thanks for the reply.
It was more out of curiosity that I asked the question.
VDW advocated in a later article that it was better to concentrate on the better class races. For all we know he may have evaluated the whole of the card on the day in question. If he did there may have been pointers as to why Prominent King was the only bet on the card.
Just a thought and probably not in the least bit relevent.
Cheers anyway

It's me again,Bang,Bang Did you find Devon View Using the same selection method you used for Poliantas,And was this same method used to seek out Rooster Booster and Lygeton Lad,Just curious.