did VDW have a method for highlighting these scenarios?

From last saturday,It's been relentless,And again another one pops in ireland

Hello Guest,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Can I ask, in Impeks race who did you have as the C/F horse?

Many thanks in advance
All the best
hedgehog

Well done Guest,3 from 4,having trouble locating where you posted these?

Guest,

Interesting statement, Quazar wasn't a form horse. I can see why you may say that. Didn't VDW say it's what they do on the track that is important? Getting over the obstacles is part of the job, Q did. I made Q the c/form horse BUT wasn't happy with the going and course. I had the winner as second c/form horse, a much fairer reflection of it's ability than the ability rating you use. If I have calculated the ability rating (your way) she would have been well down the list. Also a little surprised you classified her as in form, as she had failed when expected 3 times on the trot. And being raised in class (your way) for this race.

Every time I think I'm starting to understand your method, and how you work, you throw in another puzzle. I would also have thought the weight concession would have bothered you with See More Business. Nevertheless well done finding 3 out of 4 on the day.

Continue to be lucky

I thought I was on my own with that way.

Good evening
I'm sorry for butting in on your post to Guest,I hope you don't mind,Vdw said that he had given enough information to set up a second numerical picture,This would have pointed you in the right direction,I missed Spirit LeaderBut it was there nonetheless,Again today that other picture showed that native upmanship should have been hammered,It was an odds on chance in the context of the race.Again i apologise for interfering

Some interesting discussions on the Class/Form horse, and the various ideas on what constitutes the same. What should be a mainly simple and objective decision is turned into a potential minefield by each individuals interpretation of VDWs methods.
Last week Fulham had Royal Auclair as the c/f in Poliantas's race, an entirely reasonable conclusion given the approach propogated by others on this thread. It is all too easy to pick holes after the result is known, but my intention is merely to show how the wrong approach will often lead to the wrong conclusion, and, hopefully, shed some light for those still struggling with this concept.
Royal Auclairs. best ever performance had been last time out, where he had won a 42k race, in which the highest rated horse he beat had an OR of 139.
Poliantas' best ever performance had also been lto, where he ran very well in a 58k race, where he met a number of horses rated higher than those RA had beaten.
Poliantas was therefore the horse with the best form in the race, and the CLASS horse in the race, and as his last run was a recent one, he was also THE CLASS/FORM HORSE in the race and to arrive at a different conclusion is not only contrived, but flying in the face of LOGIC.
If years of research, and blind adherence to ability ratings leads you to any other conclusion, then I am afraid you can no longer see the wood for the trees, and it really is time for a serious rethink.
For those who would like to pursue a more rational line, I would suggest that they look for the horse with clearly the best performance in the race, take this as the CLASS horse in the race, and continue their evaluation from that point.
Luck to all

Investor,

I'm not a 100%sure what you mean by the second numerical picture. Is it along the lines that Statajack talks about? to me they are x checks. Or is it a second picture built on the ability ratings of the runners in the past races? Using them to try and gauge the strength of a particular race. My problem with that is as I don't think the ability rating holds good or makes a lot of sense, isn't that just compounding the problem? I must admit reading Guest's posting that mentions the initial picture makes me think he works along those lines

Johnd,

I think I understand were your coming from, but were does that leave Quazar? He ran well in possibly the best race last time out, against horses rated higher than the competition of Saturday's race. Was he a selection for you? If not could you explain why, without giving to much away? Also I think you would struggle to make a lot of the examples, selections. I would be very interested to see how you could make PK using the method stated. Keep the ideas coming though, it all adds to the mix.

Be Lucky

Johnd

The term "class/form" horse is not patented, and we've seen a variety of different uses on this thread. When I use it, I do so in the way the evidence suggests VDW did - as the "in form" horse with the highest ability rating measured his way. On that basis, Royal Auclair was without question the VDW class/form horse, though as I suggested in my post, not one to be backed. (Just as, yesterday, Le Roi Miguel was the VDW c/f in the race won by Impek, but anyone backing the Nicholls' horse was looking at the race in a superficial way.)

I don't dispute your, or anyone else's, right to refer to any horse, selected in any way, as the c/f, but it is misleading to those who might be trying to understand VDW's approach, rather than Johnd's.

I could only accept that you might have found VDW's way of identifying the c/f if you can state in general terms your way of identifying it (ie your equivalent of "the in form horse with the highest ability rating measured [VDW's] way"), AND it can be shown that applying that way throws up by its application to the examples VDW gave, the 20 horses VDW explicitly and correctly named as c/fs (ie the 21 less Bonny Gold). If your way passes that "20 horse" test, we have two ways which each resolve the problem, and would have to explore which was correct by further investigation.

If you've not already done so, you might care to begin checking with the 1983 Imperial Cup. If your approach doesn't throw up Desert Hero as the c/f, it will save you checking the other 19.

VDW gave different methods for identifying the c/f horse namely flat and jumps.

There are reasons for a differing approach as improvement etc in young flat horses cant often be measured by "abilty" ratings and then old jumpers are relativly "stable" and a lifetime type thing is more reliable.

Although with the influx of foreign 4yr old chasers, were these about in VDW's day?, there is a need for some flexibility.

good evening
I hope i have interpreted what your saying correctly,It would seem by the tone of your post that you don,t attach a great deal of importance to the ability rating,I know you will probably say it's only a rating and should be treated as such,But vdw did put a lot of emphasis on it,Therefore posters are quite rightly going to attach a lot of importance to it,To go outside the first four is basically asking for trouble,I'm probably not as well versed in vdw as you are,But just recently i seem to have found something that has helped me to set up a second numerical picture,And it has opened up this thread for me from an understanding point of view,Meaning i can see why certain horses are selected,Iv'e followed this thread right from the beginning with plenty of frustration along the way,The contributions have been great,With a few hiccups along the way,But that's to be expected,When people don't even bother to buy the books and then slag of a subject they know nothing about,Anyway during all of this time iv'e always attached importance to the ability rating afterall that's how the man interpreted class so really to go against this,Again is going against logic.

do you not think hes put it in to prevent historg carrying top weight?

Although I myself think kerry lads will win.

Good evening
It's very difficult to get my point across the way i intend,I don't know how Guest keeps answeing the questions that are asked without telling everything i really don't,Or maybe he has but in a very clever way,I wouldn't personally call them crosschecks Iv'e recently looked at some examples,From the present and some from the past,And to my mind there is another picture that can be formed,That will tell you wether such and such a horse is a good thing,This was evident in native upmanship today,And nearly all the horses that have ran since last saturday,To my mind it's been a very good week,Again mtoto it's all to do with relativity,How you interpret form,I may be completely wrong but from what iv'e seen over the past week,And what iv'e looked back on,Which you can't back fit,Because it's based on performance i think i can start to look forward to some good winners,I apologise if this comes across as a load of waffle,but it's difficult to even hint without telling you everything.All i can really say is you must evaluate a horses whole career,and then try and understand how vdw interpreted form,It's all there mate,A good recent example is kingsmark,Look really hard mate with an open mind,And think how vdw might interpret form,His way..Good luck

Hi all
Can anyone let me know ( when isolating the three probables ) how the rest of the card worked out at Leopardstown when P.King won the Erin .
There must have been a reason why VDW left the other probables alone.

All the best
ChrisB

Why was First Gold brought over to run in Ireland if it wasn't good enough to win?
We all know the answer to that don't we,elementary vdw.

I did not support any horse in Quazars race, but, without giving too much away, I can say that one consideration was that Dr Cool ran a much better race against the high class Baracouda, than Quazar did against Rooster Booster, and the fact that AP elected to ride 'The dark horse' from the same stable also mitigated against Q. For those interested, the only bet I had on Saturday was Devon View at Warwick, surprisingly unmentioned by others on this thread.
As far as PK goes, without wishing to seem dismissive, my focus is now firmly on the future, and can see little to be gained, ( Personally, that is ), from going back over old races.

Fulham
Once again, you see fit to defend your present standpoint, rather than open up your mind to other possibilities. I don't think I said that this was VDW's way of isolating the c/f horse, merely that the horse in the race with clearly the best performance, was the CLASS horse of the race, a view based on nothing but COLD, UNEMOTIONAL LOGIC, something that VDW wasn,t averse to,either. There really is nothing in it for me to argue the point over races long gone, but I feel I have something to offer which may not be entirely in line with everyones thinking, though it certainly works for me. Whether this will make any difference to anyones approach depends entirely on the mind-set of the recipient at that time, but unless one is prepared to look at things from all angles, they are limiting themselves unnecessarily.
Carry on, and please don't let me disturb you, but please allow others to make their own decisions.