hello there
Forget O.rs and such like for the momentVdw said that the amount of data available to punters is basically miles better than it was when he started out,All the records that must have been kept would fill a bloody library,Today of course you don't have to do that,Statajack makes a very good point r.e Pegwell bay,And i'm glad he did mention it because i feel that exercise says a great deal about these methods,Take a look at pegwell bay with an open mind,Then try and put the factors together,then the percentages will start to add up.I apologise for coming across vague but i'm not guest and i can't explain things the same way.

Greg

There is a horse running today - Ibin St James in the 2.05 Exeter - which illustrates an aspect of VDW's Rivage Bleu example we've been discussing.

The horse is "owned" by the ex-jockey and now tipster, Willie McFarland, and run in the name of his father-in-law. McFarland used it to land significant betting coups late in 1999 and early in 2000.

After a relatively quiet 18 months, and over six months off the track, Ibin St James came out last month in a class 47 (0-100) at Fakenham. He was moderately well backed in the morning, opened longer on course, drifted slightly, and was then hammered in from 7s to 4s in the five minutes before the off. He was clearly as fit as flea, out-stayed everything and won without difficulty, no doubt landing another coup for McFarland's clients.

For that win Ibin St James today carries a 7lb penalty, but in the race in which he is entered his basic weight without that penalty would be 9.3, and with the 10 stone minimum weight rule he would have been running from 11lb out of the handicap. As it is, with the penalty he's scheduled to carry 9.10 in the long handicap and, actually carrying the minimum 10 stone, he'll be running from 4lb out of the handicap. In other words, assuming that it was intended he would run in today's race irrespective of the Fakenham result, no disadvantage was incurred by picking up the penalty. And that, I think, was the point Jock Bingham was making vis-a-vis Rivage Bleu.

What we don't know, of course, is whether Ibin St James is good enough to win today, as there is obviously a big step up in class from 47 to 103, (0-100 to 0-125). However, if he is shown to be in with a chance once the race has been analysed from a VDW perspective - which I've yet to do - it will be worth keeping an eye on the betting to see if he is "off". (So far, although he has been nibbled at on Betfair, no significant bets have been made.) The course and distance should certainly suit.

[This message was edited by Fulham on December 06, 2002 at 08:20 AM.]

there is a grandson of buckskin out in the first at exeter "old vic".

Now buckskin won the prix du cadaran a group one race over 2m4f in 1978, at five, and ran in other group one races notably the ascot gold cup. At four he ran in a few distance races notably the Gosser pris von berlin and the prix kergolav group one and two races respectivly.

he has the potential alright.

[This message was edited by Barney on December 06, 2002 at 08:25 AM.]

[This message was edited by Barney on December 06, 2002 at 08:31 AM.]

well spotted and thanks for sharing that with us.

Do you find generally that these types are allowed to win twice?

I wonder if vdw would have played in a juvenile novice hurdle,If he,d have seen Bongo Fury,I think he may well have

Thanks for the replys gents, i thought there may be a hidden agenda with the ability ratings after jd`s recent comments along the lines of is it logical to include the minor wins in a horses history if it has won some top class ones also & then the order statajack put the ability ratings in for the 1.20 yesterday, once again thanks for that post statajack as bream says some very interesting points there for everyone to learn from & given freely as well .

Barney

I don't feel competent to make a general comment, because at present I don't fully understand the Rivage Bleu/Arthurs Minstrel selections and, unlike Guest, don't feel able to spot the Birjand types.

I can, however, comment on Ibin St James, because I've followed his history with some interest.

Shortly after he retired as a jockey, Willie McFarland set up a tipping service, which I believe was quite profitable. This ran from early 1998 to early 2000 when, for a reason I do not know, it was stopped.

In parallel, in the Summer of 1999 McFarland advertised a "maximum bets" service - much less frequent tips than his main service, and on an odds to basis, not an up front fee. One of his first "maximum bets", well-publicised at the time in his ads. in the Racing Post, was Ibin St James, which won at 8/1 on 25/8/99.

Since then, I know that McFarland put up Ibin St James as a "maximum bet" three times: when it won on 4/12/99 at 7/1, when it won again on 4/3/00 at 3/1, and when it lost on 20/2/02. During the period mid Sept 99 to 20/2/02 Ibin St James ran several times when McFarland didn't give it as a "maximum bet", winning only once, on 20/9/99, at 7/4. It did, therefore, win two races consecutively - 25/8/99 and 20/9/99 - but my information is that McFarland didn't give it as a "maximum bet" on the second occasion.

I don't know for sure that McFarland gave IsJ as a "maximum bet" when it won on 24/11/02, but the behaviour of the betting market on the day strongly suggests that he did.

As to today, until the market opened there is no way of knowing whether McFarland thought that, with the low actual weight it had to carry, it could win at today's class, or whether it was just another run to begin the process of reducing the handicap rating. The betting, of course, told us very clearly.

It didn't actually run too badly today, and won very easily last time out, so it will be worth watching future placements. But having observed McFarland's handling of this horse for three years now, I will only back it when there is a pronounced late shortening (ie moves on Betfair during the morning don't signify much, but a serious shortening in the ten minutes before the "off" does).

The extent of the moves can be judged from the following:

when it won on 4/12/89, the sp was, I think, 7/1. the first (or second) show was 10/1;

when it won on 4/3/89, the sp was 3/1, the first (or second) show was 6/1;

when it won on 24/11/02, the sp was 4/1, but it lengthened to 7/1 on second or third show before tumbling to 4/1 in less than five minutes.

I think this is to do with when McFarland releases the news to his clients. Like ISIRIS, he certainly used to leave it to 5-10 minutes before the off.

McFarland is alleged to have other horses, but to date I've not been able to find out whether this is right and, if so, their names. Certainly there is nothing in his own name, or any other horse registered to his father-in-law. If we ever do find out, it will be interesting to see whether he places them as successfully, from a betting point of view, as he has Ibin St James.

Fulham, a great post. I am sure I speak for many others when I say that we would love to read more of these stories if and when you have the inclination to post them.

Walter, Fulham,
Its possible I made a mistake with Royal Auclair's ability rating as it was night and I have to take the ability ratings by counting up wins from the RP online site. At the moment I have no time to buy next day's hard copy RP as I have a business that requires a lot of attention at the moment, this being the main reason that I post so lttle now.
For the purpose of the race in question it doesnt really matter exactly who was top of the ability ratings though, if thats not too confusing.
regards,

JIB

Kind of you, but I fear I have little else to offer in this area.

I used to believe that the short cut to making money at this game was "inside info", and for all I know that may well be right if one has real access to the knowledge of someone like Chester Barnes. But my researches led me long ago to the conclusion that those tipsters who claim to have such info. have little to offer, including Willie McFarland whose overall record in the early months of this year I know to have been very poor. And I would include the racing clubs like Elite and Platinum, despite the odd good winner that Gummy has been kind enough to post. (It may also be of interest to know that for some months last Flat season a colleague was getting information almost every day from four second order, but nevertheless well known, jockeys. Such of that information that he mentioned to me was, honestly, chronically bad, and it came as no surprise when he told me a couple of months ago that he had discontinued the arrangements.)

The only exceptions I make to my general scepticism in this area are:

1) Willie McFarland in relation to his own horse, Ibin St James, where I think the evidence is clear both that the horse has some ability and that McFarland has the capacity to place it to good effect;

2) David Lyons, the racing journalist, in relation to information concerning runners from the Hobbs and Nicholls, and occasionally the Pipe and Millman, stables. My researches have satisfied me that the results claimed on his website (www.dailydabble.com) are accurate, and I am always interested to learn what selections he is backing. If he is putting up a horse I'm backing from a VDW perspective, as with Asador the other day, I take that as a significant additional plus factor. But Lyons mainly gives short priced favourites, and has a strike rate of a touch under 50%. So, for all that he gets genuine information, his performance still doesn't match what can be achieved through the effective use of VDW's approach.

good posting

Johnd,today seen Ballycassidy running over three miles once again.On this occassion I let it run,had the race been 3m2f I would have most likely have backed it.Any thoughts on this race today,compared to it's last run.

Investor will reply shortly.

Sorry, been out all day, and missed the race completely, hardly had time to look at the RP. Will try and catch the replay tomorrow, and maybe comment then.

Thanks Investor for taking the time to go through this, I had a close look at the Fighting Fifth again,after reading the Pegwell Bay example,and can see a bit more clearly where your coming from,but must admit that the Champion Hurdle run clouds the picture a bit.The last sentence about the percentages does confuse me a bit.

I agree with you about Bongo Fury,and it was a good bet in my view.

Johnd no worries,look forward to it.

No problem statajack i also read from the racing post online, & it is true that the pegwell bay example asks us to approach things in a slightly different manner from that which was shown earlier but if we read, & are patient, we should be ok, not always easy i know but for tomorrows racing & please take it into consideration that im already in a relaxed state due to mr rothschild again then 2 who stand out for me are IMPEK & FLAGSHIP UBERALLES at Sandown, whilst at Chepstow the favourite in the feature race namely SEEMOREBUSINESS is very vulnerable & unlikely to win in my view, but good luck to anyone who would like to play on him .

p.s. jd you are to be thanked also on the way you have lit up this thread with your recent posts 8 from 10 is shit hot.

Good morning
Unfortunately i can't say a great deal more,Also look at Bacchanal and Got one too
And then ask yourself what vdw meant by consistent form,Then think about this quote,if the figures don't make 90/100% It should be left to run.

Did anyone notice that FU had exactly the
same credentials as Beacon Light?

Well done today,I was with you on all three,I did back s.m.b Whose form was slightly hidden,In my view also hand inn hand came out as a good bet.

Beacon Light to win tonight, and carry his penalty Monday??????

Beacon Wood = Dogmeat....don't know where I keep getting this Beacon Light from!

Pipedreamer
Didn't see the replay of Ballycassidy's race, don't think they showed it; However the RP summary should be adequate.
It would seem he ran a very similar race to lto, and it does make you wonder what the trainer is up to; there is no shortage of better opportunities than this.
Blinkers are usually used either to sharpen a horse up, or to make it concentrate, (IMO), in this case it looks as though they are there to pull the wool, otherwise he would surely have attempted to make the running!
The RP also adds,"Trainer AK, exasperated with the horse, may put him back over hurdles next time". Whatever he does, the horse is certainly one to watch and wait for!

Regards
Johnd