Greg

Yes, I think we are saying the same thing. In essence, the trainer was prepared to run Rivage Bleu from 9lb out of the handicap, presumably knowing he could win, effectively 9lb worse off than the handicapper regarded as appropriate with those horses in the handicap.

If it won (which of course it did), the trainer could then put it in a similar race where in principle it would carry a 7lb penalty, but provided the horse was at least 7lb out of the framed weights, he would only carry the minimum weight, and would thus be no worse off in the second race than he was in the first.

In point of fact, after winning on 21 November 1985, Rivage Bleu did not run again until 16 December, when he ran from within the handicap (coming 3rd when a short priced favourite).

I understand your point r.e conflict with Intersky falcon,But didn't vdw say he liked to judge horses by what they had achieved in public.There were certain factors that put I.F well out in front in that particular race,If you look at the form in depth you may see where i'm coming from,These same factors were also evident in Bacchanal and got one too,Vdw often mentioned odds,Which can also be broken down into percentages i hope you understand the point i'm trying to make.

The biggest factor against Marble Arch on Saturday (IMO), was the trainers pre-race statement that the horse would " come on for the run". He made a similar comment last season before the horse was beaten out of sight by Copeland, in the race prior to his Champion Hurdle second.
Intersky Falcon is certainly a very good horse, but to judge him on the 8lbs and 14l beating he gave to MA would be totally wrong.

Regards

The point i was trying to get across was,On saturday with all factors taken into consideration,The way i see it,Marble Arch did not represent a danger to intersky falcon

does anyone like the look of this today?

Barney

Shareef has had a few chances. Aberfoyle Park has run a couple of decent races in decent novice compnay. Ask Henry made a promising debut at Newbury. Irish Hussar is obviously well thought of.

Shareef certainly has a chance but can't pin him down as a selection.

I really struggled to find a selection today. For the tipping challenge I settled on Walter's Destiny in the 2.25 at Wincanton. He's well up there on recent class and ability, not so clever on consistency but the Pulled Up was in a class he couldn't cope with, and yes I know I said a while back that a P in the form was off-putting! The dangers would be Mr Timbrology, more on promise than anything else, and Vincent Van Gogh whose form has improved this season.

I found the 1.20 at Wincanton, the class B handicap chase, a difficult event to analyse. I reckon a case could be made for most if not all the field.

Rob

I'm surprised Rob or anyone else had difficulty with this race, it seemed pretty straightforward to me.
cons: Royal Auclair(Thyne will tell) 3, Poliantas 5, Golden Goal 6.
Ability (in order): Golden Goal, Fondmort, Royal Auclair, Poliantas.
Next, lets look at the class of race each horse ran in LTO and also what they ran against and a certain horse comes out very well. That on its own would not be quite good enough but if we add that aspect of vdw that Barney reckons is crap-namely ratings, we can see that Poliantas is an even better proposition now. Using 2 methods of rating all 6 horses (ring a bell Barney?), Poliantas was 2nd top rated on both with Fondmort and Thyne will tell the two top rated. As the race is a handicap we can see the following: Royal Auclair has been punished for his win last season and has to carry top weight, a weight it has never won with, so 2 big negatives there. According to the ratings it also has to perform better than ever before first time out to figure in this. Golden Goal is in a similar predicament to Royal Auclair. Fondmort, according to Raceform handicap ratings, has to produce a run within 2 lbs of its best to win while simultaneously trying a new trip and having its first run of the season, what are the chances of that happening? Thyne will Tell, while the best handicapped horse in the race does not have the class to trouble the pricipals. Which leaves Poliantas. His best ever run last time out, also his first of the season in the highest class beaten only by Cyfor Malta and dropped in class today. Any ground, trip or course type worries? None. I'm surprised Barney didnt mention this race, but if you only use certain aspects of vdw (which nevertheless still pointed towards Poliantas) and decry other parts as rubbish you may miss something.

Barney, I think I've made my point in a way everyone can follow. I hope your son is doing OK, I can remember rushing my son down to Shoreditch childrens Hospital at around the same age as yours so I know how it feels. Best of luck and rant over from me.
regards,

I have no doubt your evaluation was exactly as it reads well before the race time but why not post before racing from time to time as I`m sure it would generate plenty of interest.

I hope you had a good investment on `P`.

For me, I haven`t even opened todays Racing Post as yet so what chance have I got.

Well done again,



Barney,

My very best wishes to you and all the family.

statajack and determined

thanks for the wishes, He's home now and seems fine, the little bugger doesn't even know he's been ill. He cant see all my extra grey hairs either.

The way I saw it fondmort was the method selection and three cross checks were highlighted in poliantas, golden goal and tyne will tell, although the latter not paticularly strong.


In the end I left it alone, there might be a one horse race tommorrow.

Thanks for that post statajack but could you tell us how you are calculating your ability ratings as i have ra, fm, gg, & ps, in that order,it seems there is more to calculating the ability rating than meets the eye, your ability ratings have in order golden goal, fondmort, royal auclair, poliantes, is it ok to use adjusted postmark & formcast of the daily mail as the 2 ratings, also having trouble with the what they beat question? how do we go about working this out as a rating?.

Determined,
The point is all the information neccessary was in your Racing Post and was also online last night. Its all down in print and there is no conjecture involved at all, just write out the numerical picture and then take a look at it. There are no hidden aspects here for people to puzzle over and nothing to defy simple logic. The race was approached in exactly the same way as the races in "Spells It Out" but was easier to solve. It was also a much simpler version of the Pegwell Bay example. If a full explanation isnt good enough I dont know what more I can do!

Walter,
I calculate ability ratings the same as everyone else. Poliantas was fourth. Any 2 ratings should be OK although I wouldnt attach too much importance to speed ratings in the context of a jumps handicap. It doesnt have to be top rated.
Barney,
Maybe you are too caught up in the class/form horse. It is the one most likely to win "subject to other considerations." These "other considerations" are the capability and probability aspects of the formula.
regards,

I am not sure that my grasp of vdw is as good as yours,which is why I don't quite understand the point you are making,although I wish I did.

From the OR,Marble Arch is rated 2lb higher than Intersky Falcon,and is also in receipt of 8lb.Now this point alone would introduce conflict,to me.The official handicapper does deserve respect,and although one may not agree with his assessment of increasing Marble Arch by so much for running second in the Champion Hurdle,it must be taken on board,in my opinion.

Barney,glad to hear the good news.

I may be gone way off the vdw track,by using the OR's and if so would like to be corrected.The aim of not going against the odds,is the point I am trying to make.

I dont see myself as "caught up in it" when the cross checks are there they always seem to beat the selection.

But there are a lot of races where there are no cross checks.

Everyone is away looking for the cross checks when the method selects lots of the other races which most are by passing because they cant find a cross check in there.

There were no pre conditions to VDW's statement " the method I gave produces 85/90% winners flat and jumps year in year out.".

I would be intersted in your evaluation of buckskin.

[This message was edited by Barney on December 05, 2002 at 11:18 PM.]

Walter

Your ordering of the ability ratings is quite correct, and I can only assume Statajack has made an inadvertent miscalculation in respect of Royal Auclair's.

Royal Auclair was the clear c/f, and well supported by some cross checks, but he patently failed on essentially the same ground as one of VDW's examples, Canny Danny.

If one was confident enough that Royal Auclair would not win, then I agree with Statajack and the bet had to be Poliantas, on the very clear grounds he gives. Personally, while backing Royal Auclair was out of the question, I did not risk opposing him.

Statajack,

You made some very interesting points there about the Poliantas race and also the rating situation.Once again,thanks very much.

I also had Poliantas as the winner, but without all the arithmetic, viz ;
Ran well in highest lto ( Supported by value and OR). C/D & going no problem, consistent and in form.
Royal Auclair won in lower class lto (Relative to above; form questionable as per RP) Questions to answer on going and track, (Why is a horse that made all over Cheltenhams stiff 21f running on a track like this?)
Fondmort yet to prove himself in this class, and over this distance.
Yes it really is that simple, when you approach the race in the right way, and those that imply it is complex and needs years of analysis to learn are not only misguided, but are leading others away from the real answer.
Incidentally, for anyone who gives credence to my recent posts, this was the 8th wining selection from my first 10 attempts, ( and I screwed one of them up).
To quote our mentor, "No genius in finding winners, just a CONSISTENT and methodical approach" Let those that would have it otherwise show where there approach meets the above criteria!

I am chuffed to hear that the youngster is now OK and thriving, as you said, some things are more important than horse racing.

Nice to see a bit of common sense appearing on this thread at last. A few more people like you and this thread might be worth reading again.

Good skill
Jimmy

Vally Henry a cert sandown 3:00?

8/15 to good to miss?

Titus