Turgeonev

This horse has a lot of plus points back at the right C & D tomorrow - Wetherby 2 miles.

Has also won a hcap with this amount of weight

Guest,

Thanks for the reply. I think I am starting to understand, but why bother to find the c/form horse if when found it is of no use to you. In the PK example when a horse failed VDW/you worked on until a horse was found that meet all the requirements. Why wasn't that done with the other races? Why wasn't the Erin rejected because of conflict? Another thing that bothers me is Castle Warden was rejected because he wasn't consistent, yet you were happy to make Florida Pearl a selection. This in or out of form is so personal, I don't see how everyone is ever going to agree all the time. Yet we have too agree, to consistently find the same c/form horses.

Re BHL, is it not possible he was considered out of form, because the track wouldn't suit? He was running against a dual course (and race winner) that was in form (?) (I put the question mark because his last race I didn't consider that good) who was consistent.

Weight.

When I said about most handicaps being won by horses at the top or near the top, that isn't taking a few isolated cases of weight turn a round. I do agree that the pace and class come into the equation. It is pointless saying a horse can carry weight if it has carried 10st to win a poor race and is now carrying 8st in a good race. The pace of the race will kill it off, even if it was carrying a lot less.

Fulham,

Like you, I use class as a departure point. I'm just trying to make sure I have the full name of the station, and that the train actually leaves from that station. I except I have no figures to back up my statment. I think it must be the case, as there are so many sponsored sales races, and split handicaps like the Lincoln, Ayr Gold Cup, Stewards cup, etc.

Be Lucky

Andrew, I was just looking at this and thinking

"hmmmm Star Jack carries 18lb less in this than his last run and 2st less than Turgeonev."

Turgeonev dropped in class and back to 2 miles after 2 runs this season over 2.5, which he just doesn't get (which makes the consistency rating look less than spectacular).

I certainly expect Turgeonev to prevail, but right now I wouldn't rule out either Star Jack or Carrick Troop.

Mtoto - The process was the same with Prominent Kings race because he was the form horse with the highest class rating. Establishing form VDWs way showed Beacon Light not a form horse in the context of the Erins race. It was this race that led me to look at form in a new way using the criteria VDW set out ie class and form and how they can help show the way.

Castle Warden was inconsistent in roughly the same class relative to the Boxing Day race. Florida Pearl was inconsistent in much higher class races and moreover had already won in higher class. It's just crosschecking really to determine if the figures are what they appear.

Computer down since Sunday... I am doing this with a hand-held, Will reply when problem is sorted.

Regard

Anyone still interested in the two shortest forecast favs at the two main meetings method may like to know that both horses qualify on Weds.

At Chepstow 1.55 No Need For Alarm is the clear class/form horse and whilst I would want 8/11 or better to bet, it will be a shock if she doesn't win again.

Similiar acceptable odds will be needed for the other horse in the 2.55 Wetherby where Maybe The Business surely is the business.

Regardless of the odds needed to bet both should win.

JohnD - No problem.

Guest if those two dont win I shall expose my gluteal region on prime time television.

IM getting alarmed at no need for alarm,

everybody is agreeing.

Mtoto


I may have some relevant figures shortly.

there is a line on the three through korakor.

Korakor has beaten Turgeonev twice this season by 10l in receipt of 15lbs both times. Both races on g/s over 2.5 miles, not Turgeonev's distance.

Star Jack beat Korakor by 3l over 2.5 miles at the end of last season in receipt of 31lbs.

Turgeonev is clearly the class horse, the question is can he give that amount of weight to Star Jack. My answer is maybe, so no bet, but I do expect Turgeonev to show his class and win this.

Guest,

I know a lot of folks are getting fed up with hearing about PK, etc. I have given a lot of thought to this race. I can't convince myself that an ability rating as low as his could give anyone the confidence to make him a bet in that race. I can find other reasons for saying he had the class to win it, but not based on the VDW ability rating. I know I am not the only one that doesn't make him a good bet using that criteria.

As I have mentioned before, Baronet in the Cambridgeshire also gives me a lot of problems. Using the method to find the c/form horse, I make both Town And Country and Petronisi in front of Baronet. I know it can be argued the distance is wrong for TAC, but that would have been a brave shout (before the race) Using the last 3 runs of all these horses I find it hard to make a solid case for both of the winners. (PK and Baronet.)

You say follow VDW's guide lines. How would you suggest doing that, which races do you think give the biggest clues to the way VDW read form? I have tried and it seems very inconsistent, and open to personal interpretation. Were would you suggest a newcomer started? Do you have to go back further than the last 3 races? Do you agree with ALL the statements, and ideas given? Are there any that don't quite make sense to you, or you have adapted?

Fulham,

It wasn't my intention to make a lot of work for you. I don't really understand how you can find out how many races have inflated prize money. It isn't just the new races, there are quite a few established races that don't attract the quality of runner they should. The Zetland at Redcar was just one, a £20,000 + Race with the top weight rated 84!

Be Lucky

Mtoto


What I thought of doing was to check out the most and least valuable handicaps at the principal meeting on Saturdays, May- Oct. inclusive, and to see how closely the highest OR in each race, and the median OR, correlate with the VDW race class rating.

I would expect the results, plotted graphically, would produce quite a tight pattern around a line of best fit, with relatively few outliers, which would represent races where the prize money was significantly out of line given the class of the runners. But we'll have to wait and see whether it is as I currently expect.

If the results seem interesting, non handicaps could then be considered.

No need for alarm,I found Ballycassidy on Monday,using the same criteria,can anybody confirm if they agree?

Ballycassidy....placed inn wrong circumstancess
NNFA............placed in right circumstances.
Read previous form to understand this.

Regards

Ok JIB you re on in three! Lights! Camera! Action!

Mtoto - The most clear cut example VDW gave was probably Little Owl winning at Haydock in the Timeform Chase. Those such as Baronet or Prominent King were found via the same processes, but the class and form is slightly unexposed.

You do have to consider more than the last 3 runs before making a selection, but usually the last 3 runs are enough to establish form. Interesting that both PK and Baronet ran in the same race the year previous and both were taking on again a horse they had met last time out.

The crosschecks for class and form eliminate situations where a 20 grand 0-80 may appear to be better than a 10 grand 0-90. Sometimes it is better though. The horses engaged is more the point and I have said before, in the main I am not concerned with the handicappers opinion of how good a horse is. I respect his view, but i take VDWs ratings as a better guide though of course nothing is foolproof.

There is an easy answer to your questions as to where one should start. I can only say that I started right at the beginning with PK and whilst some may tire of hearing that horse referenced yet again, I see no alternative route to take. How can anyone understand the considerable depth of VDWs method/methods without looking in depth to the examples he gave?
To ignore them is really going against logic don't you think?

If want to begin at the beginning, you really must go back further than PK.

Has anyone noticed any trainers to which this aspect means absolutely nothing when considering their horses chances.

I will put forward two,

Reveley
O'Neil