I can see the point you are making with Tarxien but however long ago the last run, it is still the most recent form we have to work with.

I also think it worth bearing mind that no decent trainer would send a novice chaser to the track when not fit enough to do itself justice. An 'unfit' novice over steeplechase fences is the surest route to serious injury (again my opinion).

Cheers

I really dont like golf and I never played with Mike, what would be the point? At the moment I've got this millionaire girlfriend who's taken a passion for golf. She fools me by saying "let's go for lunch", of course I say yes, then she tells me the food's really good at some golf course, and like a lamb to the slaughter I go and they give me gloves and.....

I think that's a very important point brought up by Max and later by Johnd, to consider the apparent trainer confidence in assessment of form. And I would say this applies just as much to recent form as to off the track form. Otherwise it's difficult to think that the latest run is equally reliable if one horse's was two days before and the other's two years.

I have CM as higher on ability than chicuelo,

when one looks at the last run surely it can be seen from his average winning distances that the race really was out of his reach? we can forgive horses that dont have a chance what we cant forgive is good things that dont.

CF ran second to Florida pearl at the wrong trip, can anyone seriously say they could have backed chicuelo if FP was here?

to further prove that the distance was wrong he
performed less well when even upped above 3m1, ie 3m2 1/2 the gold cup so 4m+ in his last race?

they are not laying it on a plate those trainers.

VDW said explicitly to judge horses on what they did on the track.

I bet a few are kicking themselves with chicuelo

I did notice that even upto friday dinner mcoy was not saying that he would definately ride it, that must have been some sting today.

Dont you think it should even ring warning bells just that the trainer keeps varying the trip?

Barney

I'm sorry, re-reading it your previous post was crystal clear. I confused myself - my mistake.

thats what I look for hidden class, form and ability.

Sometimes though I wonder if they know what they are doing, or if thats the way that class and form just work out.

I suspect that it's not just a combination of the two you mention but also the various accidents in the field and this and that. "Temperament" is often mentioned but I think the bettor needs to closely examine their motivation before deciding if they even want to win. After that think about trying.

you had me going then for a minute!

I have to go to bed, good night.

sleep tight

Just to clear up a point that seems to have caused a lot of confusion. Fulham, you are dead right that in my neglect to update my French form or check the paper, I have overlooked some French wins that affected the ability ratings of both Cyfor Malta and Chicuelo. CM was the class/form horse but I would not have wagered on anything in the race due to other factors. Class/form is just the beginning of evaluations.

I'll have to keep my eye on the ball a bit more.

Thanks for the clarification. You had me worried for a minute

Guest

Thanks. Like Crock, I'm relieved. Oddly enough, my copy of the Post had a poor quality print of the relevant form page, and I initially misread the total win prize money, and then had to use the website to be sure what the figure really was.

I don't know if you saw the interview with David Johnson on Channel 4. One can never be sure, but he sounded honest enough when he said he'd had a very big bet on Chicuelo and a small bet at 25s with Ladbrokes on Cyfor Malta, and had probably just about broken even. I don't know what a small bet is for a chap like Johnson, but it wouldn't be a fiver EW. So God knows how much he had on Chicuelo!

Some very large wagers can be made at these pre Christmas Cheltenham meetings. Last year when It Takes Time followed up his previous Cheltenham win, there was one single wager of 100,000 pounds on course. There were several other 5 and 6 figure bets made at both meetings last year on famously owned Irish raiders.

Today there was another 100,000 pound bet on Yeomans Point who was just about the class/form horse but was up in class and trip at a stiffer track. LTO this horse won after drifting from favouritism to 9/2.

Several times today the form book caught out even the most prolific winning trainers. I believe you can be too close to the process sometimes.

On Sunday the 2 shortest f/c method highlights Over The Bar at navan at 3.15. Better than 8/11 to bet for me.

At Cheltenham and Haydock the clear class/form horses are as follows.

Chelt
1.10 Wouldnt You Agree
1.45 Monger Lane
2.15 Azertyioup
2.50 Quazar
3.20 Tenshookmen

Hay
1.05 Keen Leader
1.40 Darapour
2.10 Kingsmark

Just how many of these are worth backing?

Guest, I was looking quite closely at the 110C and what struck me was that the runners seem to be a colection of slow time horses. As such I will have a tiny ew risk on CHANTICLIER who apparently is one of this trainers stars of the future. JIB

I am drawn to a statement made by VDW that goes something like this " if the prize is big enough the c/f horse very rarely fails"

In yesterdays Thomas pink the prize on offer was for a higher amount than any amount that had previously been won by any horse in the race, when cyfor malta won the race previously it was only 47,000.

With this in mind the prize was plenty big enough and the c/f horse should have been supported.

Barney - There were grounds for making a book in the Thomas Pink, but there were question marks against most of the runners. We know that Cyfor Malta can go very well fresh and certainly was well capable of winning such events, however he was giving a lot of weight to Chicuelo who also had doubts. It all made for a conflict in my view.

VDW always encouraged us not to stray too far from the better races on a card. The lower class of race you go the more complex the form can get. For instance at Wolverhampton last night the handicaps showed Adobe,Mary Jane and Dens Joy as the class/form horses. Adobe was the only one clear for the purpoes of yesterdays exercise, but there was little else to suggest he could have been backed. He had been running ok, relatively, in better races but didn't have much else going for him. In better races, these types do not show up in evaluations much for what should be obvious and hopefully useful reasons.

JIB - I never bet ew as it is such a poor value bet. If you could bet just the place part then fine.

I see Wouldn't You Agree as a good thing today though I would need 8/11 or better to put money down.

Others I see as good things today are Over The Bar, Keen Leader and Kingsmark. All need to be 8/11 or better for me to get involved financially.

you can do place only bets with the tote