Max

Could be opening the proverbial can of worms here
One thing about the ability ratings
I can see more logic in using ability ratings for the jumps rather than the flat because of the obvious difference between the codes.
But there again didn’t VDW give far more examples over the jumps using the Ability rating?
Your idea of bringing place money into the equation has been raised before elsewhere as has the idea of only using say the last 2/3 years of a horses record to produce the ability rating .
A horses ability does fade in time take nimello for instance his trainer said ,” he is not the horse he was”, and that is only after 1 year, now that Nimello has won a lower grade race his AB is downgraded by the averaging to reflect that well nearly cos its still pretty high relative to his ability now.

Re your ratings using the place money etc have you had better success using them as opposed to just using the normal Calculation?

A problem with your way that I can see is does 4 th placed prize money reflect the true ability of a horse btn say 3 short heads.
But as you say where do you draw the line

I suppose there is software out there that by churning a database of results round and round would come up with the most accurate reflection based on a calculation of the win/place money
That may be a solution
But wouldn’t take into account horses that are unlucky/Hampered etc
The more I think about it the more complicated it gets

Excuse my Grammar/punctuation had to type quick Kids screaming for their dinner

Fulham,
PK was not up to much in the ability ratings but the numerical picture with the two ratings methods alerted vdw to the fact that he was a potential winner in the race, "prominent King had the edge by one method and was level using the other. Checking the form ....etc"
Rather similar to Kyllachy last week who was top on every commercial rating I came across.

Max, Mtoto.
I think the ability rating sits well for vdw as its a part of a whole. The consistency rating and the use of two other ratings should help fill in any unanaswered questions similar to the one Max poses. It also helps expose those horses that constantly run well without the extra class or guts to get their head in front after a prolonged battle to the line.
That said, its not ideal and I am aware of a possible way to addresses the problems. List the top horses for total prizemoney divided by total runs so that we get an earnings per start figure. Then list the top horses for number of wins divided by number of runs, giving the top W/R ratio. Horses figuring in both lists will be a small group of high earners and proven winners who run consistently well. The ones in form tend to contest the finishes of most races worth a reasonable prize. Alas its not my own work but appeared in the RU somewhen in the nineties.
regards,

what i want is winners and profit like everybody else,and july/august have been very profitable for me personally,there,s a world of difference between consistency and consistent form,let,s take a theoretical example on the last three runs,today,s race �8000 horse A figures 111 classes 30.50.70 horse B 112 classes 50.40.60 horse C 221 classes 80.70.30 horse D 312 classes 80 120 152 which one would make your pulse race obviously horse d not in three most cons but upon evaluation it came out tops would it be left to run?

Investor,
With all due respect its never been implied that common sense has to be dispenced with. The key phrase here is "upon evaluation". Its not a system but the further you move away from the rules the more difficult it will get. Dont just think Tillerman or Florida Pearl, also think Navarre, Grandera and Golan to name but three where the initial picture led to more negatives.
regards,

Surely all this argument about consistancy ratings etc confirms the widely held opinion that vdw achieved his 80% SR by dutching. If 3 horses in a race represented good value and a realistic chance of winning I dont believe that the man would have left 2 of them unbacked. JIB

point taken,what i was trying to get across is that in some cases,obviously not all we do have to look outside,afterall the permutations are endless and like you rightly say,it,s not a system i don,t think any of the horses iv,e backed this month have been outside the first three,and there have bee a fair few so it bodes well,nevertheless the situation does,and will occur,it was an extreme example and one i,m sure would,nt happen on a regular basis

this is where you have to balance class and form,sounds simple but in practice far from it,i thought exactly the same way,but the last two months and some really informative posts,from guest/statajack completely swung it round for me,also if no clear selection emerges 'TEMPEREMENT'another one won,t be far behind

Investor, I cant argue with you because you are correct, but how many people use temperament as an excuse for lack of confidence? JIB

good question.i think if the truth be known quite a few,but of course nobody wants to throw money down the toilet,when people have followed the methods for a while,there confidence will grow not just with vdw,s methods but any method,but i truly believe his methods are worth there weight in gold.when understood

further to my last post,ive followed this thread post by post for the best part of 10 months,when i brougt the books it took a while to sink in,then patterns started to emerge which coincided with what i was reading from this i gained a better understanding but most of all cofidence

Fulham,

I was using Guest's words, quote........

"Beacon Light was attempting something he had never done or come close enough to doing"

As you know I don't use race value as a criteria for class. I hadn't even noticed BL had won a race of that value. I suppose I had missed the race because it could not have been run at a true pace, all 3 runners had proved they where capable of much better.

If Guest had said BL would not run to his form because he had a hard race last time. I would be happy to except that. This out of form doesn't sit well, he is happy to forgive other bad runs (for other horses). BL had run 3 times on heavy going, and been beaten every time, once at odds on. Why is BL out of form because he can't handle the going?

Investor,

Sorry, something seems to have gone missing, it must be the way I have tried to explain myself. What I was trying to say is, if a horse has a good (low) consistency figure, it is well worth looking at it. Even if it is not in the lowest 3, if the figure is high throw out the horse even if it is in the lowest 3.

Satatajack.

I except you can use a cross check, but why use a rating that needs a cross check? Eliminate the flaw, use form as explained by vdw (one performance judged against another) not just winning ones. Then apply the cross check against the horse.

Be Lucky

yes a misunderstanding on my part,sorry old bean

Mtoto

Thanks. In that case I disagree with Guest as well.

The class 85 race was run in a pretty decent time - 0.9 above standard time and by far the nearest to standard time on that Kempton Boxing Day card, which of course included the George VI Chase. Beacon Light returned a very respectable sf of 103.

boozer

the ratings i gave previously are not the ability ratings per se.

They are the rating of the highest value race win of that horse.

invader 325,lady bear 182,tedstale 110, adobe 85, polar kingdom 75,young rosien 72 oscar pepper 60

invader(the best horse) is obviously out of form
lady bear the next best is obviously in form

etc

mtoto,

they are not a method as such, as given in detail by VDW, I keep looking at roushayd because he says later that "it had not been understood".

i remembered an earlier post where he had stated watch horses that had won high value handicaps and then watch carefully how they were placed.

with guests horses i never said they were consistent in fact some trainers go out of their way to bring inconsistency to the fore.I said they were in form, which has nothing to do with consistency in one respect.

but this is where i will be slated, because i do think that consistency does point to form horses.
that is why they are bets.

the way i see it "VDW's writing's"

his first example PK spelled it out but it was such a shock to the system that he then went back to the begining to show people step by step through consistency, class, ability etc. at all stages he says untill a full understanding is obtained stick to the perfect picture.when a bit of this had sunk in he gave roushayd which again strayed from the perfect picture but was essentially the same as PK, from a horses objective point of view.

in the last few letters he gives all manner of selections which are nothing to do with the numerical picture but will have one or two factors present.

all through the roushayd example he is saying watch what the trainer does. from its first run of the season then up in distance then up in class at right distance, where he showed improvement BECAUSE LAST TIME HE WAS TRAINED TO IMPROVE then dropped to collect in a lower class race against slower horses.

enough waffle what do i know i'm only a beginner

have another look at celtic pleasure

hello again headlines is it VDW you like or me?

you dont hang around

Barney where did your flaxly wood post go?

jib,

what more can i do?

its all told no secrets but its only an observation,you can take it or leave it i dont mind, but i am only trying to help.

The comment I made about Beacon Light was primarily to show the difference between his situation and Tillerman/Florida Pearl. The most valuable race Beacon Light had won was the class 85 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Boxing Day 1977. In that 3 runner affair he had Night Nurse beat when that horse fell leaving Dramatist to finish 2nd. Going into that race, Beacon Light had run twice winning fto at Newbury class 32 beating Night Nurse and Dramatist who were both also having their seasonal first outings. His other run had been in a class 70 handicap at Sandown with 12-1 beaten 14 lengths at 2/1 fav by Narribinni and Alverton, the latter later beaten by Beacon Light in his race just prior to Sea Pigeons.

Dramatist and Night Nurse had both run in class 37 (Bula hurdle) at Cheltenham finishing 2nd & 3rd respectively by 3/4 lengths and a further 8 lengths to Birds Nest, trained like Beacon Light by R Turnell. Prior to that Dramatist had won class 16 at Ascot and before that beaten at 4/7fav at Sandown into 2nd class 42 with Birds Nest just behind in 3rd on it's seasonal debut. This run had followed on from the class 42 Newbury race involving BL & NN. Night Nurses 2nd run had been in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle class 58 beaten 1/2 a length by Birds Nest and then onto the Bula.

And so they lined up for the Christmas Hurdle but the class horse was obviously running below par and Dramatist, whilst in form, had shown a tendency to fail when the chips were down and was 1/3 fav for his only win that season so far in class 16.

If you look at both Tillerman and in particular Florida Pearl in the same manner,you should see that they had both shown good form in better contests than the ones they won at Aintree and Goodwood. Also bear in mind there is a big difference between a fancied class/form horse finishing 2nd or 3rd and the same horse running way below it's best down the field. The latter situation is far more likely to have a reason other than not good enough on the day. Compare also with Ekbalco, as i have suggested a few times.

Further questions will no doubt be raised when looking at Prominent King himself, but not if things are kept relative. As to Mtotos hypothetical situation of BL beating SP. Yes he would have been the class/form horse but PK would still have had the same form in the book. Class/form doesn't mean a bet or selection.

guest,

will this make BL fit

SP pushed along 4 out, driven 3 out just held on

BL held up, along side 3 out pushed out inside final furlong just failed.

Looking at the "Narrow the field to gain winning strip" letter something caught my eye.
Its this:
"As I write the only race in my paper which was "on" - The Erin Foods Champion hurdle broke down as under...."
The phrase "as I write" indicates to me that it was not a carefully chosen opening example with which to reveal cryptically the methodology but rather that it was the only race that qualified as a bet on that particular day. The fact that its an Irish race leads me to hazard a guess there was a lot of abandonements that day also. Maybe someone can confirm whether this was the case?
If this is so, it means that the race was considered to be of no real significance by vdw other than that it was his most recent winner.
I wonder what implications could be drawn from this?
regards,