good morning maggsy

the only problem i saw with see you sometime was that it was up against a novice class/form horse

see you sometime ran in 'd' novice and then was switched to handicaps(did the trainer think that was its limit?)

classified was still unexposed and a threat with no indication of what is still to come.

a safer bet,in my opinion, was armaturk

hi barney i am very interested in learning more about that race the 1.45 at newbury between see you sometime and classified see i fort that see you sometime would win but dint classified win it well just wondered if you could help me on this race see im new to all this form/class but picking it up with the help of some of the guys on here thanks to them all i would like to no is that evry one seam to go for see you sometime but you went with classified would love to no why you whent for that horses i have the raceing post but seam to be a bit stuck thanks for your time new boy and thanks agen for all your help guys

See You Sometime had hidden negatives within its form and should not have been supported by anyone following VDW's methods. The winner was the most likely winner in the race, however, like I say it was only the most likely. Barney has touched on one worth looking at though. To conclude, for those that have expressed their doubts within this thread it is my opinion that there is only one person that has contributed so far that should be taken seriously when it comes to this particular topic. Hope this helps those looking for the right path to take.

Would anyone care to comment on the chances of Bouchasson in the 1.00 at Cheltenham.

Clear on ability, 3rd on form, dropping in class and distance.

Put in out of it's depth lto, but put up 3lbs for it's 7th place.

Hello everone,

first game accross your discussion on Christmas Eve, you would think that I had better things to do, but the last 17 pages has left me with more questions than answers, I only have ever had one Che Van Der Wheil book (The ultimate Wheil of fortune) so forgive me if I am not on the same level as some of the other contributors, this week useing my interpretation of how to select winners I found Florida Pearl and Foxchapple king, but I to thought that See You Sometime in the 1.45 at Newbury was a very good thing, can anyone give me further detailed direction into what seems to now be an oversite on my findings, and why Classified was the choice,

Any help would be very welcome, after all it is still Christmas.

Tommyboy.

Hi Barney
I fail to understand how Armaturk was a better
bet that see you sometime.See you sometime was
clear top on ability.had won its last 4 races.
Improving in each race.It`s hard to see how the
form could be much better.Staying on and winning
its races readily.being dropped in class.Armaturk
isn`t top on ability and the form doesn`t look
as good to me.See you sometime went from a d novice race to a class 181 handicap race which
seems to me to be a step up in class.i think
a handicap race is harder to win than a d novice
race.

Maggsy

Guest
You say that see you smetime has hidden negatives
in its form.I for one would like to know what
these are.The form looks good to me .Won its last
4 races readily being dropped in class for this
race.I can`t see any negatives.Best speed figure
last time out improving.It`s or has been raised
16 pounds.Toprated on collateral form.Where are
the negatives.

regards

Maggsy

I can`t see how Classified can be a VDW selection.
It is a form horse and is improving but it hadn`t
been running in much class.I did see classified
as a possible danger ans wondered if both horses
should be backed.


Maggsy

Tommyboy.

I think you may be worrying about the wrong sight. Using the vdw method as he set it out and explained it. See You Sometime was the horse in this race, he was the class/form horse he was the bet. You are looking for an over sight on your part, I think hind sight is what you should be looking for. Guest didn't say Classify was a bet, he said SYS wasn't. I would like Guest to explain why, where did it fail in the guide lines set out by vdw? I ask not only so that you understand, but also for myself. I am not talking through my pocket, because it failed for me as well. I have been told by Guest I don't understand vdw or racing for that matter. I would like to hear why SYS was not the bet that anyone who really understands vdw would have. Tell us what the flaw in the form was, and why Classify had a better chance based on FACT and LOGIC not guess work. I understand not wanting to give selections before a race, but what harm can explaining his statement do?

Barney,

I can see where you are coming from about SYS, but I must admit I thought it was a clever bit of training. He wins a lowly D novice with an improving unexposed horse, then puts it in an £18,000 C handicap. What has he lost by doing this, nothing he has won £18 grand and possibly blow the handicap mark. Does that matter if he thinks the horse is going to be better than a handicapper, not at all. Many top horses run in a handicap on the way to the top.

Regards

maggsy in my opinion

there was enough danger from classified to place doubt,111 has as much chance of winning as 111 i think vdw said 33% but we now know this to be untrue its only 27%

armaturk had NO threats.

mtoto
i dismissed the race quickly but looking back
i find
classifieds victory over sir dorton was the same distance,11 lgths,that rouble beat it in a class A
race and did it cosily when sir dorton was a inform class horse.look at the form of him and iris bleu.
i must admit i cant find any negatives with sys in fact,appart from the fact that it had been droppped to 10k from 18k and only took it by a length, on a line through montalcino(although out of form when beaten) is up there with the best,landing light,barracouda etc

[This message was edited by Barney on December 31, 2001 at 08:27 AM.]

To Maggsy,

I never said that the above horse was a good thing and worthy of a bet, just the most likely winner. There is a major difference, as you know, and a difference that is most important.

Having read all the postings over the Christmas Period it has been good to see others getting involved in debate, though once again frustration through misunderstanding has reared it's head.

Firstly I suspect I have been confused with Reference Point who has made some postings. Whilst I am not a member of this group I have always used the same alias within it as a guest.

See You Sometime seems to have caused most consternation recently and whilst a few have spotted the flaws in his makeup , others are bemused. The flaws are there to be seen as factual evidence though many will disregard such evidence as inconsequential. That's fair enough , but progress with VDWs methods will not be forthcoming until everything he considered worthy of attention is understood.

There is no racing today and a New Year starts tomorrow with another possible blank day. If you don't understand what VDW was telling us then take the time available to get into the grass roots of the game and don't be afraid to start right at the beginning again.

Finally I would like to wish you all a Happy New Year and a prosperous future. If just one person has gained in their understanding of VDWs methods from my own contributions then I'll be pleased that I at least lent a hand. And I think all in all that was what VDWs contributions were about - lending a hand.

Guest.

I owe you an apology, it was late and I read the postings very quickly. I have to admit I was surprised at the tone of the message. Your have been helpful apart from one bad choice of words. How ever this does bring us back to my original statement that it is possible for vdw followers to have different selections in the same race. SYS failed in the race for me because he didn't meet the criteria set out by ME. I can't see how he failed under vdw's criteria as explained many times, using the guide lines. I would be happy to explain why he failed for me, but that wouldn't prove anything. I can't see any reason that you, or Reference Point cant explain why he failed using vdw methodology. Or is the doubt that both of you are reading to much into the works of vdw, and it is YOUR reasoning and not that of vdw?

In the past I have agreed when you say a horse has failed, because I can see vdw's reasoning in the example. I have given you explanation why I choose a different horse as being the class/form horse in a race, and it won. You didn't agree that it was a vdw selection. My reasons for rejecting SYS could be equally be shouted down, but yours would be very interesting or those of RP. The one hinted at by RP does not hold water for me. I think anyone reading this thread has come to understand there is a lot more to it than just adding up a few figures, and there's the winner.

Regards

Maggsy,

I did not study this race at all on Saturday as I rarely bother with Novice Hurdles but I am intrigued by your statement that SEE YOU SOMETIME was dropping in class. The Challow hurdle is a GROUP 1 race. Admittedly for less prize money but I don't think prize money can always be taken at literal value, particularly where handicappers are stepping up to group company.

As a final thought, can I just say to others who may read this thread that whilst I don't pretend to have a complete understanding of VDW methods, it is not necessary to understand completely to generate reasonable profits. I am in the very early stages of looking back at early VDW examples to gain a more complete understanding of his methods and at this stage have no idea how others such as Guest and Reference Point identify the class/form horse but over the holiday period I have had a very profitable time from horses such as Florida Pearl, Majed and Foxchapel King who were found by narrowing the field VDW style and then applying some basic form study techniques.
To be frank, If I can generate the profits that I have over the last 3 months from a limited understanding of his methods then I shudder to think what could be acheived with a complete understanding.

Happy New Year to all.

Hello Guest
You say that sys had flaws and that the flaws
are factual evidence but don`t say what they
are.i and others have given the facts about
sys form and ratings but you don`t go into
detail about what you see as flaws.One possible
flaw in his form that i have seen it that he
beat an odds on fav lto who failed to peform.
So it could be argued maybe that his form is
not as good as it may first seem.But compare
this against all the positves and i still think
sys has alot going for it.And no one has shown
any factual evidence to the contrary.
Guest you say to start at the beginning but
i have already done this many times.I have
read the VDW books more times than i care to
remember.I have looked at old form books and old
racing posts to check the VDW selections.And
i still have more questions than answers.I hoped
this NG might provide some answers but still
it seems we are left with more questions than
anwers.

regards


Maggsy
check

Hello Crock
sys was going up in class.What i mean`t to say
was that it toprated on class last time out.
Classified was going up more in class than sys.
How anyone can say that classified was the c/f
horse in this race is beyond me.Classified was
a form horse but he hadn`t been running in much
class and speed and collateral ratings put him
well behind sys.As for Florida Pearl and Foxchapel
King both do poorly on speed and collateral ratings .


regards

maggsy

maggsy

the race in which classified ran wasnt high class
but the horse it beat had been running consistently well in high class a and b races and it had beaten other consistent horses in that class.

in this case look at the class of the contestants not the class of the race

Reference point
Pazuzu?
Guest
Your posts are meaningless, if anybody is interseted in solving races they can look at any days card in retrospect. You have never made a constructive contribution, if you have some thing to contribute spit it out, your veiled hints are tiresome.

epiglotis

in my opinion the hints will remain veiled because its so straightforward!!!

they wont ever tell you even if your right, that would be too easy for every one!!!

forget the loser lets talk about armaturk that was a cert

I'll have a look at Armaturk, I've been too busy to look at any racing for a few days.
Common sense and temperament are the key tools I try to apply in my approach to selection, VDW has also made mention of these but otherwise didn't say anything very interesting for me.
What I wonder about is the motivation of the self-professed experts in claiming to know but never saying anything. Why do they submit posts at all?