Very early evaluation would put

Awake 1st on c/f followed by Budelli

Where does Mr Mahoose fit into the equation ?

On bare ability ratings he`s only 5th rated.

A race full of conflict ?

MM may not be that winner in a race and I accept the distance may prove to be a problem but in my opinion his 6th at Ascot last year is the class performance of this race and compares favourably with anything the opposition has shown.

The way he travels suggests he`ll improve at today`s STIFF 6 and I`ll be taking the 3/1 availible this morning.

Any comments ( after the race if necessary as I wouldn`t want anybody thinking I want my card marking ),



Mtoto,

Again after the race, any thoughts on GRACILIS today ?


Good luck,

JiB,
On behalf of all the other squirrels I would venture to suggest your time in the jungle has turned you "nuts". Only you know why you chose to run off to the jungle but the fact that you need to wrap up the real reaons in pseudo romantic drivel shows a lack of self awareness. The lofty edicts you issue to all us lesser mortals also only serve to show that you are considerably closer to the treetops than us.
regards,

determined,

i am not able to look at the form for this race.

perhap´s you could post a couple of points for me for later.

his performance when sixth is IDENTICAL to his previous win on soft. the difference on good to firm is the horses preference thats all!HE IS THE SAME HORSE.

the trainer is aware of the factors needed to improve performances, look at his penultimate run, this may be just to induce a bit of speed,but he has that in abundance anyway.

that said, unless there are any top draw 6f horses in the race he should win,

what is the going?
what is the class?
what weight is he carrying this time?

Hi Determined,

Hope you enjoyed your break.Re the 3.20,I've ended up with a completely different conclusion to you. I thought Mr Mahoose was a false forecast favourite and that Awake was the one to be on.Don't let me put you off however.I'm a complete novice at looking at present day examples in this way and any horses I mention should carry a wealth warning.

Hi Guest,

A big thank you to you for your Gaye chance evaluation.I've spent the last 2 afternoons going through some examples in the old formbooks and some of the examples that I was having difficulty with seem crystal clear now.Hopefully I'm back on the right track again.

Cheers everyone.

I agree that Awake has many of the factors required notably,

consistent, in form, top on ability, highest class win (value) last time, form of his Newmarket race reads very well, still well h`capped on his previous best OR.

All that said I believe there are factors against him today and on that basis I have gone against what most will consider to be the class/form horse.

Thanks for the feedback anyway.

Good luck,

hee hee, gotta larf ain't ya

especially when somebody who puports to have read the Roushayd article in systematic betting opines that VDW didn't consider the trainer

Nice one John, you have made my day

Crap.

Hi Determined,

I don’t know whether you read my last post but take a bit of time out and have another look at the your selection again. Compare it with the winner, Budellie. Forget the trip, forget the going and all such things and first of all establish which was the better performance out of the following; Budelli’s win over My American Beauty whilst receiving 8lbs, or Mr Mahoose’s win over Pie High/Bon Ami whilst giving 18 and 19 lbs respectively? The conclusion should be telling and have led you to the most likely winner. Remember everything is relative when judging the horse’s chances. I would suggest that only when you have established which is the best horse in the race, class wise, should you begin to look at the other factors such as trip and going etc. Then when things line up should you then go in with the money

When you have established the true class of those two races above and then taken in to account the fact that Budelli had a 14lb pull on MM you should see who had the better chance.

I didn’t back Budelli because of a couple of niggling doubts, or any horse in the race, which was probably a misjudgement on my part. Had I have seen your post earlier I’d have made comment on it before the race. Have a look again at those points above and hopefully you will come to the same conclusion that not only was the race that Budelli won higher in penalty value, it was also better in other ways.

I`m just on my way out so I` haven`t read your post in any great detail but a big thank you.

I`ll respond later.

Re` MM, I `fancied` him and went out of my way to find reasons to discount the opposition which is a very annoying and basic mistake which I still keep making from time to time.

I was confident it wasn`t Awake`s day but that doesn`t help my wallet.

I`ll learn but its going to be the hard way.

Cheers for now,

JiB,
Feel free to call me what you want. I will say that answering your posts in the style that they've been sent has taught me one thing. Its so much easier to slag people off than to offer something constructive, whether its done in the language of a minor public school or modern english.
regards,

Hello Chaz,

Interesting post about the 3.20. I was wondering if you could answer a question for me? If you are considering a bet on horse A which was beaten last time out by horse B and horse B has gone on to achieve greater victories would you take that into account or is that sort of info irrelevant?

Determined,you can take some sort of consolation in your selection doing better than mine.You and Chaz seem to have eliminated it fairly easily it seems so I've still got some way to go.

On a completely different subject could anybody tell me how you get those pictures under your username.Go easy on me I'm totally computer illiterate.

Cheers for now.

SJ

Is that your best shot ?

111
.

JIB - I think your post regarding trainer and jockey abilities has some very valid points. However, in my honest opinion I do think the betting public at large sometimes place too much emphasis on trainers and especially jockeys.

It's absolutely correct that there are excellent trainers, good trainers and just average ones and they all have their own particular approaches. This is something VDW later tried to draw our attention to along with the breeding factor, but only after he had attempted to show us the importance of class and form. For instance, in my evaluation of this years Derby I started with the two class horses and evaluated their form before making any assumptions regarding their breeding. The way Hawk Wing had been placed and certain comments made by his trainer led me to believe a stamina doubt would be there and when coupled with his breeding it seemed a pretty good case that he would not stay as well in that class against a horse such as High Chaparral.

With regards to jockeys, well I only use them as a guide as to how well fancied their horses may be by the trainer. It is my view that most winning horses would win the majority of the time with another jockey, claiming ridden winners excepted. The jockeys own opinion is quite frankly pretty bad in respect of highlighting winners and they often pick the wrong one given the choice. The Derby highlights this also. I was actually delighted to see Johnny Murtagh on board before the race, but Mick would have prevailed on the same horse also.

My point is, a good trainer or a top jockey won't make the horse run much faster if it fails on class and form. A top trainer needs the ammo and Aiden O'Brien has it in abundance. Henry Cecil is followed fantically by some older punters, but he is finding these lean times now that his ammo has mostly been unreplenished. He is still a master trainer but only when he has the horse who has the class and form to match the assignment.

These points though are all part of the process, but it should always start with class and form in my view.

Bream,

Would you be referring to Awake and Budelli when making reference to horses A and B ?


Chaz,

I`m looking further into the performances of Budelli and Mr Mahoose. Early thoughts are that `B` Ponty win was a much better performance than MM win at Yarmouth.

More later.

Could I ask, did you make Awake 1st on class / form and if so why did you pass him over for Budelli given that only recently at Newmarket `A` had beaten `B` fair and square ?

Cheers,

JIB - Points taken, but it does all go back to the big question, how does VDWs method actually work ?

If a method is being used without the user knowing how the said method should actually operate, how can that user say for certain that it doesn't measure up ?

To be fair, for long periods I had my doubts as to the claims of VDW, but only because at the time I was trying to implement his method in the only way I could understand it IE wrongly. When I went several stages further and began to uncover the inner workings of the process, I slowly began to realise some important points I had been missing and the effectiveness of his ideas began to shine.

I backed BUDELLI today cos it was top speed in racing Post.
(second top unadjusted -Mtoto)
Did I do right then?
Swish