I confess, that in this case OR wasn't anything to write home about,
Swish

i must admit i adore brazil nuts,but every now and again you get one that gives you a bad taste in your mouth,squirrels love nuts aswell but unfortunately not the brazilian type,mainly the acorn because from that groweth the oaktree

Hi Determined,

Your initial post did seem as though you were making a case for Mr Mahoose more on a fancy than with cold calculated judgement, but it wasn’t my place to say so at the time, particularly after the race had been run. Not a problem, we all do it and it’s a difficult habit to rid. What it does do though is strengthens the reasoning behind going back over the races that you’ve looked at, win or lose, to see how things panned out. You’ll learn a lot by doing that.

We here all the time on the racing channel, or whatever it is now, how a horse’s form has been franked because the 2nd horse in the race has gone on to win. It means very little where VDW was concerned. What did the form read PRIOR to the race is what we should be concerned with. Also collateral form lines are worth very little either with the methods.

Awake was top on ability but for me wasn’t the class/form horse in the true sense of the word. Most of his ability rating came from his high prize win last time at the Curragh. But what did he actually beat there in order to achieve that ability rating? Absolutely nothing of any class, which is a good example of why the ability rating cannot be taken at face value. He had no right really mixing it with the likes of Budelli.

Bream,

Hope I’ve answered your questions above.

Swish,

Of course you were right to back Budelli, it won!

Thank you,
I was just trying to show that speed figures count, a lot of the time,
Swish

You're fast winning the competition to be the biggest W***** on here, keep it up.

In the near future I might give you a handicap winner, cos you definetly need one.
BUT if you want one you will have to be realy well behaved, you will have to add up all your form figures and your ability ratings just to tell me, for the crack,
Then i can laugh like **** and name the winner,

On the other hand you could get the speed ratings and the OR's and tell me the winner!!!!!!!!
More chance of being struck by lightning,
Swish

Blimey John,
You are being OVER CRYPTIC!
In the meantine GET IN!
yOU KNOW i MEAN REPERTORY

If that wasnt a classic example of ROUSHAYD method,
what was?
Swish

For you people who may not know,
heres how it goes:
REPERTORY scored 101 in a £58000 A race.
Today it's only rival (in my opinion)
Was AUTUMNAL which had scored 96 in a £17000 race.
Adding form figures up would not have told you the winner, although (I must concede) winning prize money would have.

Truth is though adding form figs up, and winning prize money is not the answer,
Swish

If VDW was still backing horses he would not have missed Repertory under any circumstances. As Swish makes clear it is a v v good example of the Roushayd method. A classic example of a horse being dropped in class to leave it the fastest horse in a lesser grade race. And very well spotted by Swish.

Thank you John,
But will it hit home?
Doubt it.
Swish

Your recent posts have been valuable.

All I have to do now is make sure the points you have raised finally sink in.

Cheers,

Determined,

Referring back to Ascot 3.20 yesterday:
Mr Mahoose was quickly discarded as he's a 7f horse - one run at 6f, which he did win. Plus Yarmouth is not one of my yardstick courses.
Awake won in Ireland with 7-11 on sft over 5f. Yesterday was carrying 9-2 on g/f over 6f and had previously been unable to win in UK this term.

At least you had higher marKs for Budelli than I did - thought it was a bit of a step up in class -so I went for Armagnac who was dropping back in class and distance and had won at Haydock and Ripon and performed well at Newcastle. Trainer & jockey stats persuaded me to take Forever times ahead of Budelli who were close.

I know I'm not VDW thinking, but that's the way I saw it.

Oldtimer

one thing that gives me great pleasure,is knowing i,ll always be a very remote 2nd to your good self,ta.ta

everybody forgot the lovely FRAULEIN,bless her..

would golan be a vdw bet today?

Determined,

Sorry if I misled you with the horse A and B scenario.I actually meant any 2 horses although I could have given Awake finishing behind Brave Burt and Brave Burt going on to win next time out as an example.

Chaz,

Yes that does help and thanks very much.Guest had already made the point about subsequent form,but I thought I knew better.It won't be the first time that in order to make progress with this methodology I've had to swallow my pride and admit I don't know as much as I thought I did.

Swish,

Thanks for putting some of your thoughts up.Did VDW ever mention consistency ratings in relation to the Roushayd method? I thought he may have used the Roushayd method to trap horses not found by his other methods, of which the consistency/forecast method was just one.Well done with your winners yesterday.

Swish/JIB,

I agree with you both regarding Repertory.

For those that are interested in looking at the class/form side of things it is worth checking out Repertory’s previous run and compare it to Autumnal’s previous run. By applying what I've previously posted it should become apparent which run was superior.

Swish - Once again you are missing the point. First off who ever said the Rousahyd method involved consistency figures ?

Secondly, if all you are doing is noting the class of race and speed figures then you must surely be finding far too many bets, of course we don't hear about those.

Thirdly, Chaz has highlighted the real reason Repertory had such a good chance. You still assume that those such as myself are just adding up figures. Any fool can do that, it's knowing how to utulise them.

Still well done on your win. Ever thought about doing it for a living ?