Fulham
Going back to Spirit leader,This horse had proved that it could carry weight in higher class,But had Mystic man,I know it's a balancing act and that M.M Had good form, But it looked a bit too speculative for me as a win bet e.w is a different story.

I've jotted those down and I'll take a look over the next day or two.

Fulham
if you do play in the 2.00 Through my crystal ball ) i wish you luck with far lane.

Epi

Page 498 mentions the Beverley race

1.30 and 2.00 are tricky, i think Fayr Jag and Kirovski will go well but unless prices are very generous i won't be betting

Thanks, I'll have a look.

THE TATLING
prior to today's race this horse was 1/15 at the distance,Not very encouraging at all.

Fulham,

Far Lane is the progressive horse who is down in class today and IF THEY WANT THE PRIZE IT IS THERE FOR THE TAKING BUT IF.

I personally feel you are on a/n in the race who has an excellent e/w chance.

It is a watching race for me and it will tell me plenty for the future.

The very best of luck,

investor,

with far lane you really have to ask yourself is this prize big enough?

Investor

Thanks. You've put an idea in my mind re the 2.00 which has changed my approach to it as a betting medium.

Determined

You were right. Before Investor's post I had Salute as a "solid" c/f, and backed it EW as usual (copied to two other board members well before the "off"). Investor's post has, however, given rise to a question of methodology which must now be researched and answered, and may cause a re-appraisal.

As regards Salute, you will have noted that it was 2nd in the ability rating rankings, on 167, behind Kuster which, for me, was clearly not a form horse in today's context. Neither were, in my view, any of the other "three figure" ability rated horses (Scotty's Future, 145; Kirovski, 125; Prairie Wolf, 103).

By contrast with the other four at the top of the ability rating ranking, Salute's form was progressive, and he had finished a decent 3rd lto in a class 232, carrying 9.6. Today, dropped in class to 131, he only had to carry 8.10, a weight he had shown he could manage.

Salute found in a gelded Researched one too good on the day, but a place at the odds taken on Betfair ensured a small profit on the bet.

I have a copy of the 82/83 NH form book. If you email me at johnd1@bushinternet.com with your details I will forward it.

CROCK
People who live in glass houses eventually learn to stop throwing stones.

Fulham
Both far Lane And Warrsan Had good form going into there respective races today,Niether should have been supported due to factors against,Obviously i,m talking from a single win point of view,It will be interesting to see how these 2 horses are placed in the future.

Johnd,

You have mail my friend.

Re Far Lane, Today's c/d should have given the clue to the trainers intentions, and as he had clearly the best form in the race, the only question was the one of pace/going, (IMO, but readily checked on his form in today's RP).
As it turned out, this was the ONLY thing that stopped him winning, as he was outpaced when the tap was turned on, but coming back strongly at the finish.

Fulham,

Ditto JIB.


2.00 York,

I agree with your comments on Kuster and S.Future.

I however wasn`t sure how to evaluate Kirovski. I chose to ignore his disappointing run last time in a non h`cap thus making him a form horse followed by Salute in 2nd.

No bet however for me as I considered this a race with 2 many unexposed horses open to fast improvment.

The race as expected will tell me plenty.


BOLLIN ERIC - this one showed an impressive turn of foot at 12 furlongs which clearly surprised connections. Hos future placement will be very interesting.

Must go, other priorities.

Determined

Two thoughts:

1) VDW always had a good and clear reason for "excusing" a run. Personally I can't see one re Kirovski, but that isn't to say you and others can't, but when contemplating "excusing" I always try to articulate to myself the ground for excusal.

2) More important, methodologically speaking if you had Kuster and Scotty's Future as not form horses in the context of today's race, but Kirovski and Salute as form horses, then Salute was, by definition, the c/f and Kirovski the 2nd c/f.

A tricky question is the extent to which difference in ability rating is significant, certainly vis-a-vis differences in the level at which form has been shown. I doubt there is a formulaic answer, but personally I regard the difference between 167 and 125 as potentially significant, but The Tatling's one point margin over Border Subject in the 1.30 as neither here nor there.

No views on the evening's racing?

Fulham,

I remember a horse last year, in an analysis by guest, where he did exactly the same thing, although the conflict was not created in a race as high in class as that which was todays, Guest clearly regarded it as a major dropped bollock.His horse was beaten by the conflict.

I cant think of the names involved at the moment I will search the memory bank.

Johnd,

Nice to see you back with something constuctive to say.
Do you think it was the ground which stopped him, I must admit that I think he will be better on good, but it was the weight that stopped him today for me.

Barney

It will be much appreciated if you can remember the example.