One last thing. I don't know if it helps, and please don't think me rude, but the manner in which you describe that you wish to bet, (big priced selections with good speed figures), I think that by not betting it was, in fact, NOT showing temperament - as that one fitted your bill.

Just a thought.

Black Cat
You are not rude atall. You are correct. I DID NOT SHOW temperament, exactly as you say.

I also agree that shorter prices give piece of mind with the shorter losing runs. I still do shorter prices, quite often.

I like laying short prices as well though.

These 3 Wednesday look especially crap.

HEXHAM
1.20
BEEWLYS BERRY
3.20
BOLLIN THOMAS
WOLV
5.20
WEE CAN DO
They are crap because their speed figs are crap.
In particular BEWELYS BERRY which has only ever won over NHF and is odds-on.

Gummy once published a table of Nov hurdles that I made showing how NHF horses were crap.

Wouldn't mind seeing that table again.

Hi Swish,

Because I've read many of your posts I've seen several references to tables.

However, I cannot find them on here.

Any advice?

btw, I'm finding TS the best thing since sliced bread! Trouble is we want our daily bread every day, that's why we forego the big priced ones in favour of more likely shots.

Seanura,
a couple of years ago I sent a table of novice hurdles to Gummy, showing how winners increased according to speed figures.
If I remember correctly it was only a favourites table.
Very roughly, because I do not have it to hand (as it is on my old computer, which is knackered) NH favs with 120 + won 75% of time.
Ones with no hurdle form atall won 25% of the time.

Further to above,
Believe it or not, most of the 120+ favs were NOT odds-on.

Cheers, Swish!

Hi Swish

I have been taking note of Topspeed figures for the last couple of days, and they have sometimes helped confirm a bet. But I am quite wary as to my interpretation of them. (At this stage, I think the best 12 month figure is probably the most relevant - would you agree?)

The horses you listed as lays for wednesday provided a winner and two close up 2nd's. Having said that, I used the data yesterday to help confirm a bet and reject others.

Todays racing
My possibles today are all at Windsor. I am local to the course today (work) and it has been raining continously all morning. I should say that the poor beasts will need flippers and snorkles to get around, never mind trying to jump fences and hurdles! So as an exercise, with betting boots off, here is my analysis:

1. 1.30 Royal Hector (BF 2.68) NO BET
Will be trying to win 100%. 11-10: is a proven weight carrier, but in what is likely to be soft, no. Also up 1.5f. Speed figures indicate Borehill Joker as better.

2. 2.05 Lorient Express (BF 2.92) BET
V.close to a Flash System bet. Speed figures confirm (115/111).

3. 2.40 You're Special (BF 2.42) BET
Flash System bet. Speed figures confirm (138/115).

4. 3.10 Marcel (BF 1.93) BET (if price holds)
Flash System bet. Speed figures confirm (143/133).

I have written "BET" as in drier conditions I would have bet 2-4. But not today. (Unless God sends a mighty hairdrier from above!) "Flash System" is my little device I'm testing.

Of course, in a way, the weather does devalue the exercise as the results will be less predictable than normal.

Results
Royal Hector - 1st
Lorient Express - 1st
Your Special - unplaced
Marcel - 1st

Comments
When I posted earlier, it was tipping down. Lunchtime was blue sky. Went into bookies, the going went to G/S. So I put my betting boots back on! I looked at the form of Royal Hector again and swopped him for Marcel. Not that Marcel wasn't a good bet, but early prices had closed in to 8/11 (drifted back out to 10/11).

Royal Hector won easily. It may say 1L or whatever, but I watched it, and there was no doubt from a long way out which horse was the best. Speed figures said otherwise, ranking him a miserly 6th. (This is an example of speed figures pushing one of my system bets out of bed, as it was a Flash all bar distance).

Lorient Express won as it liked.

You're Special was a well beaten, unplaced horse. Funnily enough, this was the best of them on speed figs!

Marcel won, but I don't know how the raced panned out to comment.

Thoughts
Speed figs don't provide all the answers obviously. Other factors must be taken into account. But from a speed figs point of view, 2/3 is brilliant. I will continue to clock the TS figures and monitor its overall effect I think.

BlackCat

Blackcat,
Delighted you have taken an interest in speed figures.
And, yes, as you mentioned, the best looking speed figure horses sometimes come nowhere, like YOUR SPECIAL.
Is this because they are merely animals and can't or won't always reproduce it? Probably.
It is a fact that if you backed every top speed rated horse (even at the right distance) you would lose, so, yes other things have to be taken into consideration.

Why don't 20-1 top speed horses win as much as ,say, 2-1 favourites?
I do not know why and perhaps never will. It is illogical really. I once asked the topspeed man himself at the Racing Post, but as per the norm, I never got a reply.
Yet, years ago when I got a massive forecast double up using speed figs (£5 to win £1500!)
and wrote and praised them it was plastered over half a page of the paper!

In any event, although bare topspeed figs do not make a profit on their own, it is still true that topspeed win more than second top speed, which win more than third top speed, etc etc.

The biggest puzzle, by far, is why NON-HCP speed figs work far better than HCP speed figs (in general).
You would not believe the amount of hours I have spent (wasted????) trying to solve that one.
Taking weight into account, not taking weight into account, right distances, wrong distances, going, left handed or right handed etc etc etc.

The truth is I simply do not know why this is and would dearly love to, believe me.

Anyway, as I said, delighted you had some success using the speed figs as part of your winner picking.

Cheers
swish

Sorry, Blackcat,
I missed the question you asked me regarding "is it best to stick to 12 month figure at this stage"?

Answer
YES, and (very broadly) the last 4 figs are the most relevant, unless you want to delve very deeply as I wrote elsewhere on the board that I used to do once (HARD WORK? THAT'S AN UNDERSTATEMENT)

Hi Swish

Thanks for that. I'm on the right track then. Great. I'll keep you posted on my progress/observations from time to time.

BlackCat