Bit of "Tarnished" Silver -

What about - the SPs associated with the Horse ??

or - maybe -

the previous wins over - Distance - Course and Going ???

Trainer Intentions ??? maybe?

as I say - I expect - little response !

What have VDWrs ever said in the past - on the subjects

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Probability -

I am now "convinced" is directly related to SP - Not only to todays position in the "betting forcast" -

But more importantly to the Horses SP - "lto"

I think that only - "Lee" has spotted this connection !!



The rest of you - VDWrs

don't - have a clue as to what VDW was refering to

TC,

Probability is ONE of the key factors in the method, as you've highlighted.

However, with regards to this element of the equation people dart around from one idea to the next, never quite understanding what's going on.

TC,

While I agree Lee has mentioned the odds last time out in passing, I think you will find Guest went into a far bit of detail about this.

I think probability must have something to do with the odds available on the day, I'm not that sure about the odds in a previous race are necessarily part of the equation.

VDW mentioned about false favourites, and I think he said some where the odds available didn't always reflect the true chances of the horse.

As VDW did sometimes back longer priced horses I think probability may have something to do with the profile being as important as the odds. If the profile is right the probability is that the horse will perform what ever the odds. In saying this if a shorter priced horse has the correct profile don't ignore it just for a better price of a horse that is only nearly right.

Be Lucky

Is not probability the whole framework?

First 6 in the betting 83%
adding up form figure percentages

go back and you will find it s all tied up with the odds and temperement

Sp,s

Why were Zamadra and Stray shot the only ones to back LEE

Lee -

Damm well knew that this would bring some "input" !

The "Bookies" - are our "friends" here !

In his last ever letter where he gave guidance, VDW mentioned 6 winners, (Rivage Bleu etc), along with Roushayd.
All 7, in my view, had probability.
Accepting this, anyone's personal interpretation that doesn't embrace all 7 horses must then be in error.
I would suggest that those who think the answer lies in ability ratings, speed figures, position in the market, etc, check out those 7 horses, all of whose form is on the RP website, and if they fail to find common ground, maybe have a rethink?

Accepting this, anyone's personal interpretation that doesn't embrace all 7 horses must then be in error.

JohnD,

Does that mean if you can make the 7 work you are well on your way to cracking it? If so would you knock s/f out of the list of items you think maybe leading us astray?

I can make all 7 work using them. I must say I find that a little disconcerting as VDW said Rivage Bleu and Travado are different from anything he had shown to date. Maybe he had yet another way of using s/f, if he hadn't explained Desert Hero was yet another method I wouldn't have known.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Nice to see you still retain all your old charm! Re-thinking something is obviously alien to your thought processes, fair enough.
Desert Hero, Roushayd etc, were all found by starting from a different angle to that demonstrated in 'Spells It All Out', maybe it is a mistake to think that the final decision to bet (probability) is based on differing criteria? And not s/f in my opinion.

Letter 24,Golden years.

Another of the many ways to reduce the field,Which can be used in conjunction with the previous method i gave is as follows.The combination of the two usually isolates the PROBABLES.Again i suggest the better class races.

The previous method i gave isolates Secret express,Easter girl,The old feller.Giving 4 out of the 16 with PROBABILITY.Most readers will be aware of the statistics regarding horses placed 1,2,3 4 last time out.

Vdw gave this as a cross check,I haven't put the full letter up but there are points in those few paragraps that need to be compared against vdw's selections.

The probabilty part of VDW's Equasion has to be

Fishing in the right area/area's

Simple as that

anybody disagree??

Odds LTO

I am not sure that odds LTO fit into "probability". It may be that they are an alternative guide to ability. But whatever, I think they sometimes (not always) may give an indication of improvement.

As an example:
LTO - Horse was 20/1 and ran a close up second to the 10/11 fav, pipped on the line by a nose, and beating a 7/4 and 6/1 by 10L.

This would seem to indicate that he ran above what was expected of him. i.e. he had improved.

What are the statistics for horses placed 1,2,3,4 last time out?.

Boozer - is most "probably" ( ) - right !

Is it just as simple tho - as looking at the "A-B-C" races ??

My own - "Modern" VDW -( I have mentioned him) - keeps refering to his own fishing experiences - and keeps saying that - he Never Writes Anything - Just for he sake of it !

Lee ???

Walter,

Unfortunately I can’t do the percentage of races won by horses with LTO figures of 1 to 4. Anyway here are some stats for LTO position and strike rate next time. These figures are winners to runners and will be skewed slightly because in some races there will be more than one horse with the same LTO form figure. For instance on the flat if there is only one LTO winner in the race then the strike rate for that horse is 22%.



LTO Position N/H FLAT
1st 23.28% 17.03%
2nd 18.71% 17.23%
3rd 13.22% 13.29%
4th 10.61% 10.72%

That's interesting, bream.

I read somewhere that someone had found a positive
corelation between winning and the LAST TWO finishing positions.

It strikes me that being first or second lto is significant.

I wonder whether a policy of adding up the last two form figs and then concentrating on these runners would be productive?

Let's say we accept a max total of 4.
I don't think anyone could argue then that our selection was " out of form".

" Outclassed", maybe, but if we eliminate any that have not run in the last 30 days, I'd say we have a contender with " good recent form".

Of course, it is all relative. Some qualifiers could have staggered home in 2nd in dire races where many of the field didn't even finish.

So, as ever, we look at other factors.

I just feel the last two form figs totalling = < 4 would be a good starting point.

Good old Wolver tomorrow, and just two animals qualify under the criteria above:

125, Rancho Cucamanga

440 Sungio

Hang on -

4.40 - Turtle Patriach - might argue with that !

and - !

1.25 - VDW - would say that Triple Two - qualified !

I could't solve Wolves - to save my life

But here are someone elses opinions -

12.50 - Gilded Cove
1.25 - Joyeaux - ew
1.55 - Croon ***
2.30 - Vevet Shadow ***
3.05 - Kali
3.40 - Just Wiz - ew
4.10 - Lilli Marlane
4.40 - Makarim - ew

Daft Inn'it

Think i'll have a quid on each !

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