Thankyou Bream,
Do you think it`s possible to work in sp`s last time out to placings lto to form a %?.
For instance how many of these horses who finished in the first four lto were priced between 1/2 - 3/1 under both codes?.

OOps! Well spotted, TC.

440, Turtle Patriarch.

I'll check out their previous SPs tomorrow.

Not everyone was convinced about TURTLE PATRIARCH's resolution when he was beaten at Redcar last time, but Kieren Fallon made his mind up here and he belatedly broke his maiden with a bit in hand. He took to the surface and can come back and win again.

SP 7/2

-

SUNGIO's two previous wins had come in sellers, but he is just as effective in these low-grade handicaps. Off for almost five months after finishing lame at Lingfield in April, he showed the benefit of a recent outing at Goodwood (where he was basically outclassed) as he battled on well here to repel Best Port.

SP 12/1

Seanrua
here i am trying to help you again.
So you think that the last 2 form figs, 11,12,22, 21, is a good starting point?
Well why not look at all today's Thursday's) winners for a start and see how many fitted that profile.
Post the results on here and then write NAIVE in giant capital letters acrosse the whole page.
Honestly Sean, don't you think every punter in the country has not thought of that one?
I realise you are not saying just blindly do such horses. You are saying have that info as a first step.

Well , instead look at these two winners today, both of which I got, (although only to place)
TAUNTON
1.20
BROCHURA W16-1
LUDLOW 12.40
AMBER SONG W7-2
If you take the time to look at the form of each you will see that neither fitted the 2,2 profile.
But there was a connection. The phrases collateral form and speed figures spring to mind.
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY
SPEED FIGS ARE THE KEY


NOT FORM FIGS (BARE)
NOT FORM FIGS (BARE)
NOT FORM FIGS (BARE)
NOT FORM FIGS (BARE)
NOT FORM FIGS (BARE)

I aren,t taking the p***.
I am not being rude.
I am helping you, honest to God.

Now I have done you a little favour here (although i have tried to tell you before), so kindly get on racing Post internet and look those 2 horses up and spot the connection.
Cheers
swish

Thank you, Swish! Just seen your message and cannot argue with it.

I'll check things out at once - though haven't much time before the first.

The " last two placings" isn't my idea; it's just what some geezer on TRF systems said he found from research.

We'll see what they do at Wolver, as that's a hard test. There's only three. I think two of them will place.

Well done with your picks yesterday! Here's some of mine for today:

125 Wolver, Treat Me Wild, 000, 20/1 to place

155 W, Casino, 6/1 EW

305W, Denver, 11/2 EW

Charlie Masters, 7/1 EW

410W, Najaaba, 7/1 and Rafferty 8/1 both EW.

Those prices are the RP betting forecast.
I haven't got onto Betfair yet ( 11.27 am).

Previous SPs:

Rancho, 10/1 2nd, 5/2 1st, 14/1 2nd.

Sungio, 11/2f 3rd, 12/1 1st, 33/1 8th.

Turtle, 7/2f, 7/2 2nd, 10/1 12th.

First is the latest price/position.

Well, all my selections were disastrous!

Thanks for steering me in the right direction, Swish.

Unfortuneately, I cannot make the connection yet, but I've been reading many of your old threads on speed figures.

It seems to me that, from your research, about 75% of winners come from animals with the top four speed figs.

I think that this works best when the going is good, good to soft - as in the races of your two winners.

I'll have to keep looking.

Actually, TS lto has been an old fav of mine for years, but it needs a bit of tweaking.
I've a lot to learn.

Seanrua

Collateral !!

check out each horses form - and see how they performed against each other in prev races - also look at their topspeed figs in these races !

I think its a "Rotten" example - in view of the class of the races - but the principle is right !!

tc

Cheers, TC!

How many races back do we need to check?

Dunno ! -

Maybe Swish will tell us

Maybe thats the last element in the VDW equation -

" Hard Work" = Winners !!!

Hi Walter,

I may have misunderstood what you were suggesting, but here goes anyway…..

For the years I have and only for horses in the first 4 lto there were:

7/2 to 2/1on: Flat 10,444 wins from 55079 runs
N/H 7673 wins from 34638 runs

Above 7/2: Flat 18695 wins from 146966 runs
N/h 9057 wins from 68100 runs

Looking at horses in 1st 4 lto under both codes, horses that were between 2 to1 on and 7/2 against had an overall strike rate of 20% next time out and those that were above 7/2 lto had an overall strike rate of 13% next time out, a useful difference. Certainly the lower the sp lto then the higher the strike rate next time regardless of next time sp, but the strike rate today seems to be dictated by todays sp and not last times.

For instance on the flat, horses that finished in the first 4 lto and who were evens to 11/8 win approx 21% of the time next time. Horses that were evens to 11/8 last time and are in that same range today win 48% of the time. Any horse that is in the range evens to 11/8 today regardless of sp lto or finishing position wins approx 43% of the time.

Since I was given the Function Dream example I have had a look at previous sp’s and I always look at them now . They can certainly improve matters for us, but I don’t think I understand what you are getting at here.

Seanrua,

Thanks, I like the idea of horses that are constantly mixing it at the end of a race. I don’t have a problem with short prices and maybe like yourself I have tried various approaches with form figure combinations. They are not all short prices though are they? Today, Quick had been in the first 3 in 2 of it’s last 3 races yet still went off at 50/1, unbacked by me though.

Good point about Quick, bream.

Following Swish's emphatic post in favour of
Speed Figs ( syrup of figs?), and my poor results from Wolver, I've used a new filter today.

As TC says, we're not sure how far back we should be looking, but I found the RP site, referred to by Swish, and just noted the four top-ranked in their "Topspeed " listings.

Didn't even bother looking at the numbers.

Then I went about my usual selection procedures, but rejecting any that were not on the TS list.

We'll see how that affects returns. I'm quite hopeful.

BTW, I'm very grateful for your figutes re SPs.
Now I think I can see another useful filter, though I've never been much good at the sharp end of the market.
Perhaps this new knowledge will bring improvement!

A successful first attempt at using " top four rated by Topspeed" in each race:

3 winners @ prices 3/1, 9/2, 7/1

3 X 2nds @ prices 14/1, 5/2, 6/1

from 8 races at Southwell.

I can see potential.

Cheers, Swish! You may have given me direction.

Bream,

Im not really sure what im getting at but the big race at Cheltenham today saw two horses jump the last together.

Our Vic (fell) & Monkerhostin (won) if you take a look at the whole fields sp`s last time out you will find that the two horses mentioned were the shortest priced from the whole field last time out, class aside.

WP -

lets go back to square 1 -

quote:

---

Probability -

I am now "convinced" is directly related to SP - Not only to todays position in the "betting forcast" -

But more importantly to the Horses SP - "lto"

I think that only - "Lee" has spotted this connection !!



The rest of you - VDWrs

don't - have a clue as to what VDW was refering to
Posts: 1835 | Registered: June 17, 2002



Lee
Member

posted December 06, 2004 08:50 PM
TC,

Probability is ONE of the key factors in the method, as you've highlighted.

However, with regards to this element of the equation people dart around from one idea to the next, never quite understanding what's going on.

---

Right. OK Walter, thanks.

Wolver, sat night, Dec 11.

Swish's idea: 3 x winners and 3 X 2nd.

RP betting forecast : 2 x winners. ( first three)

Walter,

An interesting concept! If ONE could only devise a system round those factors it should stand you in good stead for years to come. There will always be favourites for a race. The whole of racing is geared and structured for one reason, in most of the world, SO THAT WE CAN MAKE HAPHAZARD SELECTIONS AND THROW OUR MONEY AWAY!

Mon, December 13

Slightly related to the question of previous Sps, I've listed the runners at Wolver today that were

a) a previous favourite ( clear, joint, co) in the form write up in the RP.

b) or were priced at =< 4/1

c) and is in the top of the betting today; ie.
RP betting forecast and Betfair at about 12 noon.

110. Depressed, rpbf 3f, Betfair 2f

140, Azuree, 2f, jf

210. Garden Society, Fav, fav

240, Sir Desmond, 3f, 3f.

310 Blythe Spirit, 2f

340. Summer Serenade, Fav, Fav,
Iftikhar, 2f, 2f

410, Best Desert, 4f, 4f
Rare Coincidence, 4f, 3f.

440, Kingsdon, 3f, 4f.


----------

Filtering these by Topspeed, I'm left with

Depressed
Azuree
Sir Desmond
Blythe Spirit ( borderline)
Iftikhar
Summer Serenade
Best Desert


Well, they can't all win! I'd say a few should place.