Hi Speed Figure fans

While I am sure that the right speed figures would assist selection, I don't know what speed figures to use.

My experience of Topspeed is that it very often seems at great variance with the RPM, which seems to work very well the way I use it. Topspeed would very often kick one of my selections out-of-bed, which then goes on to win.

I notice JIB made a point that speed figures are often mis-leading if they are weight adjusted. So, which speed figures would folks suggest we consider using and why?

BlackCat

BC,

Without going back on a word I wrote previously, the best figs are Timeforms.

Black Cat,
If you are on net now, got to Racing Post speed fig analysis for2.0 Towcester.
Look at the 4 figs on the left for the winner ARCTIC SPIRIT, 125, 125, 125, 125,.
These are the figures I use. Having said that the race was a hcp and racing post figs DO NOT work as well as in non-hcps (although they did this time).

Great start Seanrua.Well done.

Going all right so far seen.

Hi JIB
Thanks for that. I'll look into them

Hi Swish
Sorry - I went out about 3. Must've missed your message before. I'll see if I can still bring it up.

Cheers both

BC

Hi Swish

Sorry. 2.00 at Towcester card has gone. Looked at tomorrows cards. Can't find anything called that. Topspeed has 4 columns on the right. Is that the one you're referring to?

Cheers

BC

TC i dont know what you mean by let`s get back to square one?.
That implies you are holding in my book which is all against what guys like yourself & some others on here are all about.

Speed Figures and OR

Observations using the 11.50 Southwell

My little system picked out Boughton Knows, who went off 7/4 Fav.

Whilst going through the form today, as they have been discussed on the threads recently, I clocked the OR and speed figues - just to be aware of their possible relevance.

Today's OR was 69 for Broughton Knows, and it was the same for Kylkenny and Newtonian. Gravardlax was 68.

However, Kylkenny, Newtonian and Gravardlax had generally held better OR’s than Broughton Knows in the past (70’s & 80’s). And Broughton Knows highest winning OR was only 36. (c/f Kylkenny 85).

Topspeed had Kylkenny as 77, with Gravardlax 71. Broughton Knows 61, whilst Newtonian had not registered one.

The figures on the right, (12 month best, course, distance & going), Kylkennys were generally better (84ish) although Gravardlax had a better 12 month (88). (Broughton Knows were 74’s and 58’s).

Result:
1st Kylkenny 3-1
2nd Newtonian 14-1
3rd Gravardlax 5-2

I shall have to look into this further.

Comments welcome – thanks.

My other two possibles (discounted*) today were:

1.40 Wolves – Rydane (*2y.o. & jockey?)
2.50 S’well - Magic Red (*trainer?)

Both had the best RPM and Topspeed, but both were behind other horses using OR.

I shall watch and hopefully learn.

WP

Square 1 refers to very first Post(s) on this particular thread

Holding ???

If I had that much to hold - then I wouldn't be Posting or here

Getting there tho I think !

Black cat,
yes those 4 figs.

Thanks Swish.

More...

Nagano has just beaten the odds-on Lorient Express.

Nagano had a Topspeed figure of 82, which was inferior to Lorient Express 89.

However, the OR showed Nagano to be 87. Ahead of Lorient Express 81. But the latter has a future +14 by the side. Presumably, this means that on the back of his last outing he is due to go up to 95 soon?

I think I’ll add up all the numbers (RPM, TS and OR) and divide by the number of wins…

BlackCat

Perhaps Speed Figures are more relevant in flat races... and in particular 5f to 6f, where horses are flat out. Perhaps in 2M+ National Hunt, the OR has more relevance???

Are speed figures made up from the finish times? Or are they adjusted depending on sectioal timings / general race pace etc?

3.30 folk

scrubber race - but

Versus - Topspeed lto 118 - next best 92 !!

7/2 fav lto and 3/1 fav prev run

Topspeeds -on the up !

Highest OR !

Wins as 10/3 fav !

Doesn't the fact that it was going up in distance by 6f put you off a bit tho'? There is nothing to say he will stay the distance is there?

I did look at this one just before the off - but the distance did put me off.

dunno -


I am inclined to think that if he is a decent trainer (and he is) - then you should trust him -

still didnt bet tho as at that level everything is a risk !

Still I find Speed figures of over 100 - interesting, and am continuing to look at them.

TC - thanks 100

Black Cat,
In the 1.10 WOLV today the top speed was the fav IMTALKINGIBBERISH (not me the horse!!).
It had 70.
The second top speed was LILY GEE on 68.
Over same track but 5f as against 6f.
LILY GEE, only ever had one run coming 11th of 13th.
I ummed and aahed for some time, and decided to show this dubious word "TEMPERAMENT" and let it go.
It was 31-1 on Betfair and won at 14-1 sp.
I was a bit sick to say the least.
The point though is, is that this is a classic example of form figs and prize money meaning absolutely nothing.
THE SPEED FIG TOLD THE STORY as it does again and again, (even over the wrong distance).

So why didn't i back it?
Well I don't really know. I hovered the mouse over the BET bit on Betfair for 5 minutes before not clicking.
It has to be because Iknow most high prices lose that I left it. It was wrong thinking because I already know that high prices make a good profit in the long run.
Evbery time we srike a bet we make a decision in our own minds whether it will win (or place) or not.
These decisions are so flawed, because in Racing, WHAT IS OBVIOUS ISN'T.
The massive catch with high prices is that long losing runs affect one mentally (and that's what you are going to get if you regularly back high priced horses, make no mistake.)
I have dropped these high price winners many times as I have talked about on the board.
If I am waffling, please bear with me because I am searching my own mind to try and put things in perspective.I think it is because of the time span between the losers and winners.
We can look at as year (or more) results and see that backing such horses with high figs EVERY TIME would have made a superb profit.
But we are living in REAL time.
In real time there might be 15 or 20 such bets in a month, and it might be a couple of weeks before a winner occurs.
if there was one every 10 minutes, 12 hours a day. well winners would come every day, there would be no mental problem atall (so long as you had faith and the bank to cover it).

THAT'S IT I have worked out my problem, whether it applies to anyone else i do not know.

Hi Swish

Long losing runs would be a problem to me. I would wonder whether I was ever going to get another winner. I would almost certainly quit - probably just before a winner came along!

The thing that appeals about the Van der Wheil method is not the prices. It is the fact that a long losing run does not occur. And my experience, although not long, is that the method does seem to work.

My racing interest began from a Colin Davey mailing. Usual story follows... etc... So I did not get the racing basics that many on here have.

Now, by using a staking plan that doesn't escalate out of control, perhaps (I say PERHAPS) a long term profit can be achieved at shortish prices. That is the wobbly road I am treading at present anyway!

My racing "career" has gone as follows:

2001 Small profit (following selective CD tips)
2002 Huge loss (following systems flogged to me by CD)
2003 Small loss (betting willy-nilly to small stakes, without a plan)
2004 Small profit (following selection methods and staking plan outlined by VDW)

Now, Speed Figures: if SF can help the strike rate improve, then I must look further into it. That is my goal. I am sure you are right that looking for big priced winners probably does make more over time. But would I have the discipline and (as you mentioned the word) temperament to keep with it? "no, I wouldn't". I know I wouldn't. So why pretend, and try and be something I don't think I can be".

JIB has also indicated OR as being important too. And from his description of how racing works to a basic level, then I am also inclined to look at both of these tools together.

My ramblings over.

Good night to you and everyone else on the board. Back Friday.

BlackCat