Seanrua
I love Moscow Flyer,This horse epitomises consistency.Today Azertyioup was the class form horse imo.But in the very same race last year Moscow Flyer was going well when he fell.I personally left the race alone,Because of the very nature of the beast.He either falls,Unseats or wins and he's done that all his career.But he's a grand old horse and it's been a pleasure for me over the past couple of years from a watching a punting point of view.I'd personally love to see him at cheltenham but who knows,Azertyioup is getting closer to him and he's getting no younger.Nicholls will have to pull out all the stops now.

Thanks, Investor.

I agree things may be different going left-handed at Chelters and later in the season.

I thought Moscow was great, but he is a bit old and I think they'll struggle to keep him right for March.

Both Azerty and jockey looked a bit down in the mouth. I'd expect them to do better at the Festival.

Of course, THE horse for the future must be

WELL CHIEF.

over to BC

thanks ectoo

An awful lot has been said in the past about consistency.Vdw gave us figures i.e 111,211 311 221 etc. etc.And you will find that a majority of his horses contained these figures.But what also frequently happens is folk get confused about the consistency rating and consistent form,Which are two totally different things.I believe it was Lee who said it's HOW he uses these figures that needs to be understood,What must also be remembered is it is the 3 most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the betting that we need to look at,So you could have a particular horse that has figures of 021 but it could be the lowest cons rating in our area of betting.It is the class and form that will tell you wether this particular horse is out of it's depth.So to conclude,I wouldn't stick ridgidly to the cons figures that vdw gave.

any horse below 10/1 is unlikely to be out of his depth though.

Ectoo
i don't understand what your getting at.

It is the class and form that will tell you wether this particular horse is out of it's depth

it was that statement Investor

Any horse below 10/1 is unlikely to be out of it's depth and deciding which horse in a race is going to win won't JUST be decided on class/form. Basically they all have a class/form chance in that race,,measuring what actually will swing the race on THAT day is what picking winners is all about. And class/form is only a % of it. Class/form alone is already factored in to the price so you need to look way beyond that to make profit.

If finding "winners" with no profit is your bag then just back every favourite..it's simpler. Anyone can find winners using any method they like, making profit is a totally different ball game.

If you are happy saying consistent class horses win lots of races then it's only the same "profitwise" as saying favourites win lots of time.

Can you see this?

investor - did you not just say somthing similar ???

quote:

---

posted December 07, 2004 04:28 PM
You can't be making it pay just placing at them prices surely.Why not split your stake and do a win and place double(mtoto's idea that one) i think you would do better than just placing judging by the results and prices

---

T.c/Ectoo
Take the first step,Then a few more and then do some mileage before you question me.

Ectoo
That is the most stupid statement i have heard on this thread in all these years "non profit"

here's a question for you Investor.

if they ran a race on Monday and then ran a race with exactly the same runners on Thursday under exactly the same conditions..would the result be the same?

investor -

fact is -
"I feel sorry for you" - hence I keep putting up Posts - which might encourage you you - Join in a sensible "Discussion" - regretably - you keep insisting on - "Starting an Argument" !!

I note your current -"failures" and don't want to dwell on them - but I would - "Realy" like to "help You " out of your current "Problems"

Ectoo,

While I agree with a lot of your posts today. Just to say I don't completely agree with any horse under 10/1 isn't out of it's depth.

Also the idea that the bookies have ALWAYS factored in the class form factor. If you are working on a different (unconventional) way of judging these items will they have allowed for it?

Can't remember the names of the 2 Pipe runners on Sat. Both favourite, (and consistent) for their races both completely outclassed by my way of working.

Can I ask how many times would you say it would take before you would admit a horse wasn't just being towed to a fast s/f? Do you think it could happen every time a horse ran in that higher class.

TC,

You are right about all these threads it takes longer to find the thread than to type the reply, and my typing is slow!!

Be Lucky

Hello everyone. I have solved my problem with argumentative posting... I'm going to ignore it! Ha ha...

Anyway, I have deleted some of my unhelpful comments from this thread. It is clear to me now that people on all sides of the debate are 'up' for arguments. Not just Ectoo, but TC, Investor, JIB, Mtoto, etc... and you're all very capable of stating your case. Who needs help from a cute nickle bwack cat?

So, I will keep my good humour at this season of goodwill, by maintaining the Van der Wheil Handicap Chase. (Keeps me out of mischief eh?!)

Happy days!

Hi Ectoo
Thanks for changing the thread title


Hi Mtoto
I take your point about the number of threads. It's just that if someone wants to refer to a particular aspect of the methodology, it's all there in one place. Don't you think that's a good idea?

For instance, I would like to read your thoughts on ability rating. To try and find what you've written among 800 pages is just not going to happen.

Be lucky

BlackCat

Today I backed 2 horses in same race to place.
FONTWELL
1.40
VINGIS PARK (form figs 5,4,3) 3rd 2-1
FLEETWOOD FOREST (form figs 12,11,6,) W 16-1
i confess I only did them to place.

What's the answer to that then?
Is it a race not worth bothering with, cos it did not have high enough prize money?
Is it that the 16-1 was not in first 6 in betting, so not worth bothering with.
Is it that the ability rating is no good so not worth bothering with?
i forget now whats the prize money thing called?
Whaever it is the winner had never won much.
YOU MUST BE BLIND TO NOT BE ABLE TO SEE HOW TO PICK SUCH HORSES (even to place).

Ectto,
Has told you,
FORM IS SPEED FIGURE(s)
He is right, the rest comes from that.
HOW THE HELL CAN'T YOU GRASP IT?

Why should it bother me so?
I shall tell you why because, if as Ectoo asked we all put our heads together, we could get these regularly (even if only to place)

By the way none of these ever ran in the ERIN.

Right READ this, properly.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to get 80% winners even at 1-2.
I have a certified IQ of 147 (is that enough) and have studied horse for 30 years plus)
You can get 90% place winners at odds on but that will not do either cos it makes a loss.

But what if you got 50% horses to place at 2-1 a place?
Now were talking.
Could not be done before because of tax and not allowed to do place only.
Can now (although Betfair get 5%)
NOW WE ARE TALKING, YES WE ARE.

T.C
It is you who has the problem if you carry on placing horses at 11/8,So don't feel sorry for me.It is vice versa i'm affraid

swish - Snap !

T.C
There is no way you are getting 2/1 the place on a majority of your winners.