Yea -

We have had "Treads" without end on "Consistency " and "Ability" !!

we keep going around in the same "BLOODY OLD CIRCLES" - "Ouzelum Bird "!!!

Why can't the VDWrs - Put up something "Positive" on the subjects of "Capability" and "Probability" ???

I am going to start new threads for each - I have ZERO hope that anything "new" will emerge

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

TC,

I must say you have the most charming way of asking a question. However I'm trying to make time to try and answer some of your questions, if I can.

Just a thought why don't you set the ball rolling? What do you think VDW means by capability and probability?

We do know he backed horse that hadn't won over the distance, and at times on the going. We do know he wasn't frightened to back horses first time out, or in big fields.

What do you think would go in the C and P columns?

What is a Ouzelum bird?

Be Lucky

Hi TC

I am positive that the selection probably has to be capable.

BC

The Ouzelum bird is a bird that flies backwards, as a result of that it has no clue as to where it's going but remembers where it has been.

relative of -

The Oozlum bird is a mythical South American bird which has never survived in captivity for more then one night. Thought to be related to the Ostrich, (but not flightless) instead of sticking its head in the sand when captured it sticks its head up a more convenient dark place. In the process the Oozlum bird starts spinning somewhat like a dog chasing its tail until its head is so far up that the only thing remaining in the cage is a single feather.

cousin to the ozlum bird

It would be like the one winged ozlum bird that flew > in circles then disappeared
up it's own arse!. Maybe it should and that > would be the end of it! ...

also features

http://www.carryonline.com/carry/cojungle.html

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Ouzelum Bird Definition
"A fabulous bird that flies backwards and thus does not know where it is going, but likes to know where it has been".


Edited with picture link (scroll down): Ouzelum picture

Consistency,

The SAND 14:05 will Certainly be won by an animal with a consistency rating of less than 12.

Hi TC… Interestingly, the Ouzelum bird definition on that link says it is similar to the Sankofa bird from Ghana:

The head of the Sankofa is always turned backwards, thus "facing the past". The Sankofa represents the old adage "Always remember the past for therein lies the future."

Old form books…

The Australian connecttion

http://setis.library.usyd.edu.au/ozlit/pdf/goohits.pdf

the Oozlum Bird

Note how you have to go "backwards" - to get where you want to go

Great poem. I enjoyed that, thanks.

PKB,

Exactly! Well spotted!

Hi TC

Just a thought, but although you may have read loads and loads of threads over the years on Ability and Consistency, doesn't mean other folk have.

And it's buried in 800 pages of "Yes it does" : "No it doesn't" too! I'd love to hear Mtoto's ideas on Ability for example. But I can't be expected to trawl through 800 pages to find it surely!

So please bear with us relative newcomers.

On probablity and capability, I will attempt to give you my meagre offerings later.

Cheers

BlackCat

PKB/JIB,

Sorry, I must be missing something in the significance of your post, and the reply. If I had been stating that a c/rating of 12 or under was the main or only reason for a selection I would be agreeing with you. The fact that all four of the main contenders had that rating is no more significant than saying oh look they all have a good a/rating. (or if one was being cynical, oh look they all have four legs)

To be a selection they have to have ALL the attributes, not just one or two.

The only reason I suggested looking at the results of other top races was an attempt to disprove this nonsense that being a consistent has nothing to do with finding winners.

Be Lucky

the problem is there are many consisitent horses and the better races contain most of them because as you get to the better races the strike rates of each horse increase.

to be fair saying consistent horses win races is like saying all winners in class C + have 4 legs.

it isn't really an elimintion tool in good races unless it is used in connection with other factors.

Yes exactly.

What Mr. Van der Wheil seemed anxious to do (imo) was to steer newbies away from picking long-shot no hopers in the vain hope that they might re-coup their losses on a 25/1 shot, just because it was 25/1. They (we) were (are) being asked to focus on the areas that he thought would contain the likely winner of a race. i.e. pick a consistent animal.

But as you have both stated, this must be married to 'other considerations'.

So not just a consistent animal, but one proven in this class, proven to carry the weight, to go on the going, ridden by a good jockey, trained by someone who knows what they're doing etc... etc...

I know that JIB (and others) don't think consistency as we are looking at it here is of merit, but I have to disagree with that. I do respect his superior racing knowledge generally, but in this particular aspect, I do think consistency is a key element.

(Nothing to do with Mr. Halls key tho'. )

BlackCat

B.C
Consistency is most definately a key element,Afterall ALL vdw's selections were consistent.I would like to add something else while i'm here,ANYBODY selecting a horse that is outside the first 4 in the betting (live market) using these methods,Will be pissing in the wind on a MAJORITY of occasions.

is that the first 4 in a 4 runner race or the first 4 in a 16 runner race?

or is it a % of the runners?

I think first 2 up to 5R; first 3 up to 10R; first 4 thereafter. Bit of flexibility in all that too I reckon.

results class c and above and better class races in ireland,Taking my point about the first 4 in the betting into consideration.

Sat 27th
1.40 newc 2f
3.00 newc jf
12.25 newb f
12.55 newb 2f
1.30 newb f
2.05 newb f
2.40 newb f
3.15 newb -
3.45 newb f

sun 28th
1.20 don f
1.50 don f
12.35 newb f
1.40 newb 3f
2.10 newb 3f
2.45 newb 3f
1.05 fairy j2f
1.35 fairy f
2.05 fairy f

Mon 29th
2.10 wol 2f

Tues 30th
3.00 ling- (first 4 r/p)

Fri 3rd dec
1.40 ex f
1.30 sand j3f
2.05 sand f
2.35 sand f
3.40 sand -

Of 26 races 23 were in the first 4 in the live market in fact they were all in the first 3.That's 88%.I would urge those that are interested to take a good look at this area of the forecast,Because that is where your winners will come from.

how many runners were in each race?

Full Flat season 03
814 class C races and above
546 winners in the first 4 in live betting

67%?