Pk

I dont know I will keep an open mind regarding the betting market

I ran a query through the 2003 flat season (all races)
And for winners that had had a previous run (current season) the average market position Lto was 5.4

Probably another useless stat
But that is pretty low

Wont get an answer but
Does anybody on here think the 2nd numerical picture is to do with the last time out betting??
Just interested

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Unfortunately Mtoto this sort of thinking wouldnt knock out Beacon Light.

Boozer,

Sorry you have lost me. Beacon lights market position never came into my thinking at any time.

I think trying to judge form based on the market is illogical

PK,

My question about the form of Roushayd and Vouchersafe had nothing to do with V being the favourite. In fact it is something I never even look at, if you hadn't mentioned it I would never have noticed. I was thinkng more along the lines R had improved on a line though V. V then went on and reversed the form with Billet. On that basis V had improve in the next race was the thinking R would also have beaten Billet next time. Some sort of proof to back up the thinking R was improving, without using the s/f.

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Vouchsafe was dropped NTO and as CVDW commented, won at 12/1. He was another who showed form against a good thing.Billet.sic

Boozer,

Do you mean First six in the forcast or SP with your "5.4"?

Sorry Mtoto
I always seem to link Beacon Light and his (well out of it)with you
Not intended,

What price was BC in his race prior to the Erin By the way

PK

Market position based on sp;s Lto
In a 20 runner race the longest price would be Market position 20

Boozer,

Thanks for the clarification, it seems you have found a well stocked pond.

Boozer,

VDW said BL was well out of it. All I did was find a reason why he would say that. I think I found a reason, but it had nothing to do with the market.

In his race before the Erin he was the 6/4 favourite. opened at 5/4. From memory I think Sea Pigeon was 9/4 2nd fav.

Be Lucky

Capability

Rightly or wrongly, I think of this as the form reading or other considerations part of the analysis.

Will it:
carry the weight?
go on the going?
race in the class?
do the distance?

Is the jockey good?
Does the trainer get results?

Bc -

Did VDW give any suggestions in the areas that you mention ???

If not - then why would he - include this element in his equation ???

If Capability is a part of his formula - Then _ he must have talked about it

But "Where" ????

Mtoto - No form books but - question ? --

BL - 6/4 fav - then - lost ???

Investor,

I know it is only one example, but does today raise an interesting question? Can there be two ways to solve the VDW puzzle?

You say you made Moayed the c/form horse. There was plenty of time to notice the weight turn around for Dancing Mystery but it appears not to have been noticed untill after the race. Not just by you but also others that had looked at it. All the collateral form (using regular form or a/ratings) was there but not explained and bought into use until after the result was known.

I still have trouble with this c/form horse but having conflict, if there is conflict how can it have the form?

When VDW presented us with the Erin at no time did he mention an a/rating certainly not the one you use. I solved todays race using the same method as I think he used. Once the result is know all sorts of clever thinking can be used to solve it none of which can be argued about about as it all fits. I have to say none of that thinking was used by me to come to the same answer. However, you can now make it sound so plausible but it wasn't how I did it. So why are you so sure it was how worked? I have to ask why are you right and I'm wrong?

Lee,

I think he would have changed methods because racing has changed. As far as I can see back then the races with the best prize money had the better class horses. To make the racing 'competitive' big prize money seems to be added to some rather poor races. These races are then capped by limiting the class of the horse that can run. Especially in NH handicaps the better horse seem to often to give the races a miss. A couple of years ago the Zetland handicap a £25,000 B 115 race was won by a 84 rated horse I'm not sure but I think it was the top weight (or very close), does that reflect class? It isn't very hard to find examples where the prize money doesn't reflect the class they can be found most weeks.

As OR's are readily available do you really think VDW wouldn't have used them?

I do think his original method can achieve the results he indicated. I do think the method was change after the first few examples and the new a/rating introduced. Investor ask why would he change his method I think the answer is simple he was never going to explain his other ratings. Without them he needed an a/rating for the public to use, one they could understand and formulate themselves. I think he gave them one of his x checks that did mirror a lot of the final ratings.

Be Lucky

All, sorry about the duplication, I can't delete it as it delete doesn't seem to work.

TC,

Afraid so. The question should be why the devil was it the favourite? He was giving weight to a better horse who had well beaten him at level weights. The Sandown race was on a course that didn't suit on going that didn't suit and he was the favourite.

I except some will argue BL had the better a/rating, but I don't think VDW's other ratings would agree.

Be Lucky

Mtoto - Thanks -

as I say - no form books - But ! -

???

Why did my - "intuition" - "expect" - That he would be - a -"LOOSING" -favourite !!

Hi TC

That was a good question. So I had a quick look this morning...

weight?
Ultimate Wheil pg 21 & Golden years pg 64

going?
Golden Years pg 43 (also pace and course)

class?
Everywhere!

distance?
There is a reference to "our cat having more chance of getting home than xyz" (but I can't find the page)

jockey?
Can't find a reference

trainer?
Ultimate Wheil pg 33

While looking through, I noticed a comment that would be of particular interest to Ectoo. Seanrua, JIB, Swish and perhaps others. Golden Years pg 64 "You should ponder why the high weighted horse was entered in the first place"

Cheers

BlackCat

Just to bring this back to the Top - to join the rest !

Has no one any thing to say on te subject ??

Has to be "SPEED FIGURES" !!!

Mtoto -

I think that I read somewere that you actualy used the Superform Speed figures -

They also I believe produce "Pace" figures alongside -

Is this so ???

I have heard it suggested that "Pace" is a good indicator of the "Class" of the horses involved in the race !

Therefore - A fast Time - Run at a fast Pace is a good indication of a Horses "Ability"

Have you - Lee or Swish any views on this ??

Do you know where "Pace" figures can be accessed - other than Suferform ??

tc

Didn't VDW refer to -

quote:

---

The Pace at which it is run.

---

??

posted December 12, 2004 05:38 PM
Mtoto -

I think that I read somewere that you actualy used the Superform Speed figures -

They also I believe produce "Pace" figures alongside -

Is this so ???

I have heard it suggested that "Pace" is a good indicator of the "Class" of the horses involved in the race !

Therefore - A fast Time - Run at a fast Pace is a good indication of a Horses "Ability"

Have you - Lee or Swish any views on this ??

Do you know where "Pace" figures can be accessed - other than Suferform ??

tc

TC,

I use the Raceform s/f. I am not happy with any s/f that use weight in any way.

I have no idea about the Superform s/f but I do think they also use weight in the calculations. As for pace ratings I have never seen any and don't know how they could be formulated without sectional times. I think only Newmarket record these times although it is possible the a/w tracks may do so.

I agree time is a good judge of ability, and VDW also said so. He also said speed by it's self isn't enough and I agree with that. Until we have sectional times I have to judge if the race was true run by the s/f. Agreed it doesn't tell the whole story but it works for me.

I think some of Swish's ideas work as far as they go, but I do think bare s/f are only a part of the idea VDW was trying to put over. Taking horses from the top of the handicap also points one in the right direction as that horse should be running in it's class. The question is then does the s/f come from this class of race, and if it does, is the horse consistent enough to repeat that running?

The answer to the question in your last post on this thread is yes. Most seem to forget it as it doesn't fit into their ideas of how VDW worked. If you can't make it work ignore it seems to be their answer.

Be Lucky

mtoto - straight - ripoff - and I believe that "Lee" - will be "Jumping - up and Down"


"Race Times : a single race revieals little . Its meaningfull only when compared with some standard or average. Consistnt methods must then be used to evaluate the condition of the track.

Superform produces pace and going figures which pinpoint fast run races and reflect the condition of the track , on the day.

Superform also details the relationship between Time/Pace and Going and and Explanation of what these figures mean.

Time/Pace?Going /Figures: We o use race times to calculate the prevailing going on the day, and also give an ideda of the relative pace at which the race was run.

Firstly we compare the race time with the standard time for the track. When this is calculated on a per furlong basis over 6 races , a fairly accurate picture of the prevailing going emerges.

------
etc -

-
Pace figures : We also find this going figure useful in determining the relative pace of each race.


----
etc

-

Generaly fast Pace form is much more reliable --


-- etc

-

The Pace figure is especialy noteworthy when it is confirmed by a good speed figure.

tc