To start the Thread -

I suggest that "Capability" refers to the "Class " of race that the horse has been competing in !!

eg - Class lto

Also the "Time Figure" that it recorded in that Class !!

Again - Not a single bloody "Reply"

VDW - relied heavily on "Time Figures" - especialy on horses which recorded improving figures in increasingly "Higher Class Races"

as well as time - he also used "Pace Figures" - and - "HIS OWN RATINGS WERE BASED,- MORE ON THESE" !!

Capable of winning under the present race conditions, going ,distance,?

Going - yes -

but realy, as Lee says - if otherwise , there is a doubt !

Up in both "Class" and "Dist" - one maybe - but "Both" - NO !!

OK But

Probablity is Probablity it cant be mistaken for anything else
Its either highly probable or highly improbable
based on history/stats
Temperement, bucking the odds, and all that stuff

A horses "Chances" - are not related to the "Odds on offer" !!

Solve that - and you are a long way along the line !

me - I havn't

no
But the bookie seems to survive Ok

The bookie has spent a fortune on his odds compilers etc - and is a damm sight better than any punter in the land .

How is he tryin to decieve you ??

He is certainly not consistant - or you could easily work it out .

Check out though - Shortest priced loosrs lto - shit !

Shortest priced Winners lto - much better !

the betting forecast or even the first 6 in the live betting traps 83% of all winners year i year out

Fact

Tis the only filter that is consistent

1st 5/6 in betting -

Certainly - that "Probability" is always "Clear" !!

but is there an other "Probability" that was "Never spelt out " ???

As I say - I am currently looking at the "SP" lto -

I think that there is a little "Gold" - rather han "Silver" here

Not if it dont work out in real time

Ill give you some stats later

There are a lot of things that our researchers with the formbooks have brought into the arena which
Could be pure coincedence

sp's

working collateral form using ability ratings

But one fact about Zamadra and Stray shot
they were the shortist priced of the 6 in the LTO betting market
but it could be coincedence

Come on the rest of you VDWrs - !!

Boozer - knows what he is talking about - he has spent -"Time" on the subject !

Where are your views ??

or are you going to admit - that you know -

"Nowt" ???

Form Books - ????

do they show the "Betting Market" ??

if not -

what use are they ???

TC

I know F--k all about VDW realy, my formbooks (a Large collection ) went in the skip in 1992
Bugger really, I could have flogged em.

Its a pity that the people on here that talk like experts on the subject, cant convince us by demonstrating there expertise.

Before the race that is
That tells its own story


There are some that are a lot better than your average punter but thats all

TC,

I think it is important the horse has proven he is capable of running a good race in the class. I don't think that has to have been in the last race. Think this is what the horse doesn't lose it's ability is about. If it is there in the form book it must be taken into account if other factors are also shown. It is said a lot of the VDW examples where going up in class, but most had proven they could act in the class at some time.

The Prince is just one example of this, he had form in B handicaps a couple of years ago. He hit form in lower class races but the ability was still there. This factor will be lost if the thinking is he had to be dropped to win, it is possibly he was dropped to gain confidence. There are many examples of this through out the years.

Going and distance, if the horse hasn't failed because it has never tried. Then shouldn't we be watching the trainer? Why does he think it can, and why is he trying this in a good class race?

I know it's my bag, but course suitability is a must. Something that VDW mentioned but is often ignored. Also what is the competition capable off? It maybe ok to go with a horse when something isn't quite right, but ONLY if none of the competition have conditions that suit. A horse may win on a course or over a distance when the competition is out of form, but can it when it's up against in form horses?

Be Lucky

TC,

I'm only guessing here but there is an old idea about never backing a horse whose odds are bigger than the number of runners. Eg anything over 12/1 in a twelve runner race is a no no.

I wonder from some recent posts if this idea is not being used by some of our correspondents to decide if a horse is 'coming to the boil'.

A future selection maybe marking its card by showing good form at the business end of races where the sum of the odds of the placing finishers is less than the number of runners. (Or something along similar lines.)

Unfortunately I ve v little time at the moment so I have been unable to investigate this avenue but it seems reasonable enough to be worth looking at(?)

TC,

Yes, form books show the market. What they and the market don't do is show who placed the money. If it is clever money fair enough, even if it loses we would at least know someone with some real knowledge thought it could win. How often do we see horses backed for no apparent reason lose and never win?

I'm very dubious about this money talks thinking. If a horse is good enough to win (or run well) why is it a better bet just because it is a short price? A horse is say an 8/1 shot on the opening show, is it a better horse because it starts at 3/1 favourite? Did it run any faster because it was backed, does the weight of money make it a better horse? If it was good enough to win wouldn't it have the same chance at 10/1?

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Short price horses tend to be the consistent ones with recent form. But as you say price isnt much use!

However using your beliefs that consistent horses are good things a horse running them close could, as a result, be considered a good thing too nto!

I can see that there are people on here who judge form by previous SP's.
There is a certain amount of logic to it, for instance, if a horse is made 3/1 fav to win a big handcap, the same reasons could apply more so for the horse to win a lower class handicap Nto
Then you have in form out of form??
a horse that has been a long price for each of the last three runs against a horse that has been in the first 3 in the betting for the last 3 runs

Judging form using the betting market???
Is it logical??

Unfortunately Mtoto this sort of thinking wouldnt knock out Beacon Light

Boozer,

Judging form using the betting market is not logical in my view, CVDW warned of this folly when commenting over the years of the many "false favourites".
From the Golden Years: Beacon Light, Wayward Lad, King or Country and comments specifically on Kenlis being the only "genuine forecast favourite".

Mtoto mentions the horse Vouchsafe as a possible indicator as to the chances of Roushayd yet fails to identify that CVDW pointed us in the direction of Billet and his form with "Failik". True Vouchsafe was the "favourite". sic. But CVDW did not see matters as such. The evaluation of form identifies the "True Favourite"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pkboy,