I think VDW would have been proud a that letter,

Nessie
First of all glad to be back on the mysterious disappearing board.

Secondly
EH???????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????

I am a little confused, so bear with me.

Nessie,
You are saying that Fulham has revealed the SECRET on another board?

And you reckon it is bollocks.

Well in all the time on this board I reckon he got a mixture of fav winners and losers, but once got a 20-1 when he dutched.

I agree he's a nutter.

Waht hes saying is that if the class form horse in the race has also go nearly (1.6) times the amount of winning prize money then it (nearly ) always wins.

To which I think is bollocks.

But was it fulham who posted it up? When gummy movd boards some people signed up under the radar and 'fulham' may not be AlanB

If it was Alan then I think hes been on the sherbet.

Ah, thought so.

The original " Fulham" is AlanB who posts on RS.

I'm learning all the time!

On there, AB says no way would the old F post on Gummy's, so I'd say the new F must be some other.

Edited having read Seanrua's post, where he's just said the same as I'd just written. Must remember to read down before replying!

BlackCat

quote:

---

Originally posted by BlackCat:
Edited having read Seanrua's post, where he's just said the same as I'd just written. Must remember to read down before replying!

BlackCat

---

or look up before walking under a ladder!

Yes, even a black cat would need nine lives to win the jackpot at Wolver!

In the land of the three blind mice, the one-eyed cat is King.

Talking of which .... there was definitely a one-eyed black cat sitting on my fence the other night ... and he was 'winking' at me !

Seriously ..... I say that so you know it's me ...
Did 'Fool'em' imply anything other than that Class horses with recent proven ability, and standing out like a sore-thumb in an otherwise mundane field, have a good chance of winning ??

My old granny could have told me that !

I don't need it dressed up in some pseudo mathematical psycho-babble which has nothing whatsoever to do with the real-life dynamics of a horserace.

If VDW techniques have any value in real-life, it is surely to divide the 'very unlikely' from the 'reasonably possible' and the 'probable' (at least over an extended sequence of races).

VDW (to me) is a guide into the above 3 divisions (any of which can spring unexpected results in any single horserace event) BUT over time the divisions will prove to be true.

its all shite

As with most other things in life, VDW is exactly what you believe it to be!

I'm with FTSE on this.

There is no magic formula to accurately and consistently select ONLY winners. However, there are all sorts of valid ways of narrowing the probabilities. VDW, from my limited knowledge, seems to be as valid or as invalid as any other selection system that doesn't rely solely on a pin. Surely the name of this game is finding where the probability and the value of that probability crossover?

My own view is to spread "general" probabilities over a wide spread of races rather than spend hours analysing a few races to strict rules. Where I do seem to diverge from VDW is I find a quid won on an H class claimer has just as many pennies in its make up as a quid won on an A class feature race.

Many valid points made above, I feel.

So much cannot really be proved, thus it comes down to opinion and personal preference, in the end.

However, trying to make sense of numbers, I did think that Mtoto's idea of last 3 form figs adding to no more than 12 was a reasonable possible filter, BUT

why do I see on Pittsburgh Phil's forum, that Stephen Mainwaring's computer generated conclusion comes up with

" last 3 form figs total 10 or less"?

This is specific to the method he is using as an example, but I wouldn't be too hasty in dismissing, out of hand, something this man puts forward!
He knows what's what, and he HAS the data.

Food for thought?

I've had a look at a few for tomorrow:

130C Joes Edge 2nd @ 3/1
205C Thisthatandtother 2nd @ 2/1f
235C Crystal D'Ainay L @ 2/1f
310C Grey Abbey W @ 10/3
345C Kandjar D'Allier 2nd @ 6/1
325D Spring Margot UR @ 11/1

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

Jib
You need a good staking plan,Which will take care of all your losers.There's a good one in the golden years it maybe worth having a look.

Paid your Subs Yet ??

or are you still - "Freeloading"

Tuppenytwat
And there was me thinking you'd payed them for me.Iv'e told you,I won't pay nothing to look at the drivel that passes your fingers.Especially as it has nothing to do with the name of this thread.O.k.Mr odds on place man.

Investor,

I thought the tsunami had got you!

As you observe, when looking at vdw selections its best to use a staking plan!

My "Fiver"

Still stands there !!


Pay the rest - From your "Rock and Roll" money


£15 only !!!

TC - I am very sorry but I did guffaw at Investors use of your name, probably bad temperament on my behalf. Don't black ball me, please.