Greg, ive just had a look on Gummy `the front page` as im sure that`s where the chat used to be. There seems to be a new front page now where i do not see a chat fascility myself.

wp,
i cant find it either,never mind

no probs m8.

What about my progressive ability rating theory any of you van der wheely guys going to cut us some slack on it lol?.

Black Cat: If VDW thinking can "logically" find the winner of a top class race, how is it that the same horse can not win a low class race?? There's a VDW quote about class of race and class of competing horse, this means that there is no "VDW race" there is only relative ability among the runners. Unless VDW theory can explain Parkview Love's run yesterday it fails as a logical system.

Epi
The method does work in lower class races,But the horses must have some kind of ability or form which the horse you mentioned didn't.Just because it is miles clear on ability means jack shit.It's recent form that needs to be looked at and then the ability may play a part in finalising a selection.

Okay. Just to update, consistency isn't important and neither is "ability". That leaves the avid disciple with. . . . . . ?

class and form or the c/f horse.

PKBOY
LOL

Epi
Spelt it all out in the previous post.I might like to add that "class" is kingpin.

Back to Parkview Love's race, according to your conjecture the winner should have perceptible recent form, would you care to point out the evidence for that form? You might, while you're at it, explain why Parkview Love hasn't won anything since it's listed victory, presumably it was "in form" at the time of that victory.

EpI
The trouble is with vdw'S methods,from the point of those who haven't studied the exampLes that he (Vdw) gave.it beComes very frustrating and that is what has Happened on this thread.

it Has always been the same,Because most don't undeRstand what he was trying to inpart they slag it off which is a pointless exeRcise.

Epi
Like i said in my previous post.It iS pointless,WithOut looking at the examples vdw gave.You have no chance of getting a clear insight into his methods.I coulD spend all day trying to explain it from my point of view.But you wouldn"t accept it because you have no belief in these methods.End of story mate.

Just a minute, please, Investor; it cannot be end of story unless the story had no meaning:

you said above:

."Just because it is miles clear on ability means jack shit.It's recent form that needs to be looked at and then the ability may play a part in finalising a selection."

Further down, you say:

"Epi
Spelt it all out in the previous post.I might like to add that "class" is kingpin."


Perhaps I've understood nothing of VDW, but I'm sure somebody said that " Class = Ability" and that this "never fades".
To rate this Ability, you told me " divide all winning prize money by number of wins".

This figure ( the highest of) gives the "class" horse.

Then this " class" has to be balanced by " recent form" which I take to be the " consistency" figure that comes from totaling the last three finishing positions. The animal with the lowest total is the " form" horse.

Could you explain how the fk you square this with statements like
" miles clear on ability means jack shit. Recent form needs to be looked at and then the ability may play a part in finalising a selection". And

" class is kingpin"?

I'll guess that the answer is that this cannot be understood without buying the form books ( from??????).

I'll guess that the answer is that this cannot be understood without buying the form books ( from??????).

yes it's very complicated is VDW, what he didn't know about racing he just mentioned in one line generalisations that show he knew very little about racing..talked a good race though..after it had been run of course

the problem with reading old form books is it doesn't help you make a decision about future races..otherwise Investor would be putting HIS selections up before a race..too risky that yer know.

happy new year to all of you anyway

any chance of progressing towards ACTUAL selections BEFORE a race in the new year Investor?????

Walter Pigeon,

Your progressive ability "thingy" has some merit. But consider the reverse; if a horse cannot run in the same class of race where it has shown that ability (Best Mate springs to mind, or Monty's Pass) then competing in lesser races and reducing its "rating" is not necessarily indicative of overall declination in Form. Fair enough if it's not won for two years and ends up in low class handicap and wins, we can safely state with confidence that decline is the case, but these factors need careful evaluation and balancing. Just in case the trainer considers that these races are a prerequisite to a "future" similar good performance. In conclusion this balancing of factors is just one instance where the ability rating can be put to good use.

Investor,

CVDW would have been excellent at compiling a forcast, the newspaper forecasts must just have made him laugh.

CVDW would have been excellent at compiling a forcast, the newspaper forecasts must just have made him laugh.

how do you get that?

I think you "cut and paste" it into a new post, then select all the text with a right click of the mouse and then click on the bold in the message toolbar.

correct?

Afternoon all,

I haven't done a full evaluation of all the runners in the Welsh National but surely CHIVES has to be on anybody's short list ?

2 years ago this one only just failed to concede approx' 22 lbs to the well h'capped Mini Sensation.

Runs here off a 10 lbs less OR with 8 lbs less in actual weight.

Proven over course, distance, going, and appears to have benefited from the change of stables.

Does have to concede weight to some improving horse namely Silver Birch, Strong Resolve and L'Aventure and there is the usual Pipe headache with McCoy riding Akarus but is the weight concession enough to stop the classier Chives ?

Have a good day,

in other words you can't back up the nonsense statement you made PK

you do talk some silliness you VDW cuddlers

ooooh the welsh national

any selections Investor..or is it a no bet race?


The most significant trends I have for this in the last 9 runnings BAR last year's race are


===============================================
INTERVAL LAST RUN
16-31 days = 9/85 = vsp +10%
any other interval = 0/43 vsp-100%

must have run 16-31 days, less than this is asking too much and more than this puts question marks on fitness.

Last years winner also fitted this trend.
===============================================
AGE
7yo or less = 1/29 = vsp -70%
8+9 yo = 7/63 = vsp +33%
10yo+ = 1/36 = vsp -51%

Ideal age is 8yo or 9yo

Last years winner also fitted this trend.
===============================================
WEIGHT
< 11.00 = 8/103 = vsp -7%
11.00+ = 1/25 = vsp -57%

must carry less than 11 stone

Last years winner also fitted this trend.
================================================

The only qualifier this year is LORD JACK

so I've had 25p each way