I don't know what's wrong, Mtoto.

I tried to send you an e-mail and it didn't go.

Yahoo reckoned there was an error on your address!

Try this one:

seanruaanseo@yahoo.co.uk

Hi Swish
I thought I'd look at your amusing idea. You usually come up with some good stuff...

The Rules as I understand them seem to be that we place a point on the first and second fav (actual or forecast?) in any 5 or 6 runner race. The results today were:

Tow 1.15 (6 runners)
1st The Last Mohecan 100/30 2nd fav (f'cast 2nd fav with NR's out)
2nd Dramatic Quest 5/4F

+2.33

Hay 1.35 (6 runners)
1st Calvic 8/1
2nd I hear thunder 6/1

+0.33

Tow 1.45 (5 runners)
1st Maybeseven 10/1
2nd Blunham Hill 7/2 2nd fav (f'cast 2nd fav)

-1.67

Hay 3.15 (5 runners)
1st Black Forest 9/4F
2nd Christopher 4/1 3rd fav (but f'cast 2nd fav)

-0.42

Maybe we should run this for a while?
'Well done' Swish.

BlackCat

Hi Seanrua
Nice going today. I think you are correct applying the method to better class races, particularly if you are going to use the Ability Rating (imo).

Hi Investor
Struggling to see a pattern in these horses to be honest. The only thing I can (loosly) see is the company they have been running in previously, compared with the company the other horses have been keeping. I take it you are not putting these forward as bet selections, just as horse that share common attributes.

Hi Swish (again)
I agree with you about the 50% SR. But I also agree with Investor. I use these selections on my Incremental Staking system thread over at RSUK. Because the SR on my selection seems to float between 40 and 45%, I am using an increasing points staking plan. It is not straight loss retrieval as such. I lost my nerve (and belief) for that long ago. But this has shown early encouraging signs. I did it during June and July and it worked OK.

Tomorrow
Swish will love this one. I am considering Mouseski in the 3.10 at Fontwell... a five runner race! and currently trading at 1.92 ish on BF. The 2nd fav looks a danger, so there's a banker for the system above!!!!

I'm in Head Office again tomorrow and won't get much chance to contribute. Work. Who needs it. (Well OK, I do. I know.... doooo shut up BlackCat)

BlackCat

Grundy,

I'm afraid I'm not sure what this winner in a race really means. Yes, Alcazar was the class horse in the race (my way, never bother to work out the a/rating VDW suggested later) Yes he had the form to win the race. Was this race the target? I don't think so, I think the real target was the Irish Leger. This was a consolation prize, and more realistic. Did I back it, no way? The price was poor, this horse runs well fresh, and had a horse trained by one of the best trainers of stayers against it. Also I couldn't see where the pace was going to come from, the only front runner was way out classed. I was happy it would act on the course, had the class and form. I worried about it's age (against a much younger horse that MAY be improving) I didn't like the fact it had 2 hard runs on the back of breaking blood vessels. Add in the possible lack of pace, I would have wanted a lot better than 11/8. I can often get better than that just for a place.

I suppose I'm greedy, but there is no way I would have back Little Owl at that price either. I have looked at that horse several times, and think his price was tight, that is if you look at it before the result was known.

How far do you go back? I think the beginning is the only place to start, and look at every run. Paying the most attention to the courses and conditions of the best runs, this isn't always just the wins!

JohnD,

I thought your selection yesterday was well spotted. As Swish pointed out 4/1 the place was a very fair return.

Investor,

While VDW may never have selected horses that had a form figure that high, he certainly selected horses that where beaten by further! I would also say a horse rated 76 being beaten 9 lengths in a Listed race against horses rated 105, 108, and 105 had just run the race of it's life. A sound bet VDW or no.

Be Lucky

Blackcat
My attitude is surprising because naming that either the fav or second fav will win in a 5 horse race is a piece of piss with or without VDW thinking.
Is that still surprising?

Blackcat
you are allright really, so are all the rest of you. I bait like an angler at times.
Meanwhile I have laid MOUSESKI ha ha ha
WE SHALL SEE WHO IS LAUGHING LATER TODAY.

Mouseski looks too short so no bet or lay
Monte cristo 7/2 betfair 80%
Newsman 14/1 betfair 20%

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mtoto:
While VDW may never have selected horses that had a form figure that high, he certainly selected horses that where beaten by further! I would also say a horse rated 76 being beaten 9 lengths in a Listed race against horses rated 105, 108, and 105 had just run the race of it's life. A sound bet VDW or no.

Be Lucky

---

Fiddle me Blue was much closer at the furlong marker than the 9 lenghts btn

Fannys Fancy coming from the same race Lto must surely be considered for the future as well
Depending where placed of course
This one would have possibly been closer had the race been over further!!!!

Where the trainer places will give the game away
Or will it
We will see

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Some interesting points here, gentlemen!
Thank you all.

If the 5 runner thing discussed by Swish and BC ( light-hearedly, I guess) proves profitable, then it could be a nice little earner to keep simmering away on the back-burner.

As Nessie says on his Factor thread, " simple is best" ( if it works!) (( my proviso in brackets)).

Nessie's thread also has a great but simple staking idea from Aceishigh who does a lot of place betting. This would be interesting to Swish, Investor and BC, but not much use to Mtoto with his very selective, few bets, aimed at higher targets.

Perhaps a " portfolio approach" would be useful. No, I didn't know what the fk it means, but I understand it's running several earning schemes at the same time.

Well, must be a profitable plan on balance, as that's what most businesses do. There are hardly any shops that sell just the one product - not even bookies!

So for our purposes, what about a simple little scheme - say the 5 runner, 1st and 2nd fav, at moderate stakes with Ace's plan "or another),

AND, when VDW, CD or whatever, selects the less frequent " good one", we do like Mtoto says, that's aim to make a minimum £250 or whatever big target we like?

Btw, no VDW type race on the flat today.

Seanrua
Swish has hit upon a system that has been an important part of my betting for many months.It actually involves the 1st and 2nd favs in races of 8 runners or less (there have to be factors obviously)Many months ago i was given a staking plan that ensures you CANNOT lose provided one of the 2 horses keeps winning,It's based on retrieval and can be quite scary stake wise,Hence a divisor of 11/8 in both banks.But with a dutching s/r of over 70% it does well.Not for everybody though the stakes that are put on on occasions would cause a few on here to have major problems.

Jib
I thought that post may cause you some discomfort LOL

B.C
2.45 down royal
"method" BRAVE INCA has all the attributes bar this being the first run of the season.Does go well fresh and should run a big race.There is an obvious danger in mac's Joy but the race is well worth looking at.

B.C forget my last post,I f....d up.

B.C
Let's try again,Iv'e re checked this one before i put it up,A couple of negatives i.e first time out and no s/f but otherwise fits the bill.

2.15 down TOTAL ENJOYMENT.

Investor,

In the end you chicken out or go belly up.

jIB
It all depends on your selection method,Like i said before.As long as one or the other wins it is impossible to lose.The s/plan takes care of that.

B.C
Good for you mate.

Swish
It was short priced anyway,So at least you didn't lose too much.

I arrived back at my PC much earlier than I though as my meeting was cancelled. So I stopped away yesterday for nothing. Humph. Unfortunately, I couldn't access the site tho'. It was stuck in 'my profile' until just now.

Anyhow, I am going to post up what I think Mr. Hall's Key is on a separate thread entitled "What I think Mr. Hall's Key is" Kind of catchy don't you think?

Mouseski. Well, I did play it in my staking thread but I'm not going to gloat... (much).

quote:

---

As long as one or the other wins it is impossible to lose.The s/plan takes care of that

---

Investor - I nearly pissed my self laughing.

"as long as one wins its impossible to lose! !"

heres another one

"After a losing run always put your biggest stake on the winner"

How high will it fly?

As I’ve been spouting off a bit recently, I thought I would put these ramblings into some sort of context. Please realise that I am not setting myself up as some VDW guru. As I have stated before, I feel I have a reasonable grasp, better than many, not as good as some.

‘The Key’ reasoning is MY interpretation. I am sure that I am right. (But I have been known to be wrong, even when I am 100% sure). I have put my thoughts down as fully as possible for people to follow the logic through. If you do that, you will then be in a position to form your own opinion.

I drive a good car, have a nice house and earn better than average money… and I can say that gambling has had nothing to do with that! I came into racing via a mailing from Colin Davey a few years ago. I listened as he revealed his ‘Pot of Gold’ system over the ‘phone (which was basically him reading extracts of the VDW work to keep mugs like me on the line a bit longer). I have attempted fulltime gambling, which I did for a year…. And lost a lot of money in the process. Hence I say ‘full time, not professional!

I read JIB and Mtoto’s posts recently concerning betting high stakes and betting for fun, and it struck a chord. I am now in the ‘fun’ camp. I do not make masses of money from gambling. In fact this is the first year that I am beginning to turn a small profit. Surely by now, if the VDW method was as good as the claims that have been made for it, someone, somewhere would have demonstrated the fact. Nevertheless, as many of us are so far along the line, we owe it to ourselves to find out once and for all.

When I post, it is in the desire to share what I have learned, in the hope that similar minded contributors will help me to improve. As I have come this far along the VDW path, I would like to see “how high will it fly?”.

Now, I fully appreciate that there are other areas of interest that I have little or no understanding – Trainers and Placement. This is for sure an area that we should all be looking at. Looking at the lists and logic that JIB puts forward, it is clear that here is one of the brightest sparks on this forum, and much more note should be paid of his thoughts than to mine. We are seeing (and have seen) others emerge who have much to share if they will. And in pooling these resources, I hope we may all profit.

BlackCat