Rab
They aren't shortlists. Just the most consistent from the first 5 in the betting, (First 6 h'caps).
The only thing I am selecting is the races to apply it to, the method is doing the rest. Early days yet, but 9 out of 9 looks pretty good so far!

thats a brave call - in the 3.00 at Ascot !!

With the size of the field would there be a bet in there ??

Hi All,
Well done Johnd and Lee, a test of VDWS consistency theory before time

3.00 PROUD BOAST

JIB
Very good picture link!

Has anyone had any success this afternoon? I was going to back Wunderwood, but was put off by the fact its best form seemed to be at 1 mile 4f. Lo and behold it wins and I wasn't on. Oh well lets look forward to Goodwood.

JD

Only 1 winner today but maybe not a good day for consistant horses,
Could you have bet the winners of the 2.30 and 3.00?

Hello - tunkie !

Join the "Club"

Your record in the "Tipping Challenge" is to say the least - "Interesting" -

a few "contributions" - from your VDW perspective - would be "Most Welcome"



tc

johnd

maybe "Ratings" have got better since VDWs days !_

I have been looking at _ Top 5/6 in the betting (in Handicaps) together with Massey's top "Max" rated horses ! - and selecting the top 3 - rather than the " 3 most consistent" !!

Found the winner of the 3.00 Ascot + a few other today !!!

Rab
The short answer is no! Pricewise made a case for Baltic King, so did Tc, but he was a long way from being a bet for me.

Hi Tunkie
Good to see you on here, hope it wasn't just a flying visit.

Tc
He did advocate using ratings as a guide, and also said it would be unwise to step outside the top few. Consistency is more than a guide though.
If you are using ratings, Massey's appear to be well respected, perhaps you could put a few up at Goodwood using your formula?

Tuppenycat,

1.33

"thats a brave call - in the 3.00 at Ascot !!

With the size of the field would there be a bet in there ??"

11.15

"johnd

maybe "Ratings" have got better since VDWs days !_

I have been looking at _ Top 5/6 in the betting (in Handicaps) together with Massey's top "Max" rated horses ! - and selecting the top 3 - rather than the " 3 most consistent" !!

Found the winner of the 3.00 Ascot + a few other today !!!"



Tt as a friend, I must warn you that you should be very wary of posts like that on this overly sensative forum in the repect of post race claims of winners and race analysis.

Pull your pants up and run along.

johnd

It was Dandy Nichols who got me looking in that direction - the handicapers he wins with, appear to have everything - "but" - decent consistency figures ! - They have in the past tho - shown glimpses of ability, and this is possibly reflected in the "Max" ratings. - and thus relate to "Trainer Placing"

Yes I will post re Goodwood on this theory - I will follow you, on the choice of races to apply it to, cos I still havn't aquired the "Temprament" to pick the right races !!!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

JD
I think pricewise read the pace of the race to come up with Baltic King,
Trainer stats gave out 3 that do well in that type of race,Pic up sticks/Proud boast and Baltic king,

First order-Trainer is 0/22 at course

Rab
Pricewise based his selection on his good c/d win last year, which is no doubt what Adrian Massey rated him on. IMO it was still risky to back him after his abysmal performance lto.

Hi JIB

Great photo! I had my beard trimmed especially for the 'link' handover. But they told me there would be no press.

At least you didn't see the initiation ceremony. It's amazing how long some cucumber's are. Still it was worth it! It's 85% for me from now on... even if I will need to apply sudocreme for the rest of my life.

Yours in The 'Brotherhood of the Missing Link',

BlackCat

(or to use the new name given to me on my accreditation: Vait a Vile)

3 most consistent from first 5/6 in betting

2.05 Gdwd
Fantastic Love
Spanish Don
Krugerrand

3.15
Crystal Castle
Royal Millennium
Naahy)
Byron)

3.50
Beckermet
Roodeye
Skywards

4.25
Bendarshaan
Mephisto
Dorothy's Friend

Top 3 Massey Max from first 6 in betting (handicaps only)


2:05 G

Blyth Night
Fantastic Love
Coat of Honour


4:25 G

Mephisto
Dorothy's Friend
Jagger

Tc
I should probably have included Jagger in my list,too.
If you ignore his last run, which he can be excused on a number of grounds, then he would be top on consistency.
Be interesting to see how they go!

Jd,

I asked Lee this question and got a skiing display! Perhaps I ll get more luck from you(?)!

Byron was my pick from the three Donkey Registered animals in the 315G. Not least because it had run down the field on its two previous runs (both at a furlong further than todays race). Yet you have the horse as consistant.

So here we go: "do you regard consistancy by only allowing form from races where the horse has had near ideal conditions?"

Jib
Doubtful if I could give you a skiing display, even when I'm p****d.
Byron was jt 2nd on consistency from just the bare figures, ( With RM a n/r). It may be trite to say it after the race, but I doubt very much that there is anything untoward in his previous 2 runs.
Understanding consistency is always a matter of examining the circumstances under which a horse ran, unless they are taken in to account, how else can one understand a horses' form?
Just one of the reasons that the in form/out of form approach is such a joke!

TC
2 nice winners for you & Massey. Hope you were on.
Jagger for the Ebor?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

JIB,

Not sure what you mean by skiing display? I suppose I should have given you the simple answer - which was NO!

JohnD,

Today, Byron was a good thing along with Mephisto. Impeller and Maraahel came close, but lacked consistency.