In my View the Roushayd or a variation of same is the best approach
Allthough the so called consistancy method may prove effective over the jumps

Swish

I agree with you that the Roushayd example is one of VDW's most important, from which there is much to be learned.

30 points profit over 4 weeks is clearly very worthwhile, and I hope it continues for you. But I hope you won't take it the wrong way if I observe that, while it clearly provides the ground for hope, it is perhaps too short a period on which to become confident you've found the approach to make your fortune.

Boozer

I think it's a question of how one defines things.

VDW, I think, saw a system as a set of fixed rules which, if we all understood them and followed them correctly, we'd all get exactly the same selection, which was then backed.

Although VDW did indeed make a remark not a million miles from that - ie that once we understood his approach we'd all get the same horses as him - to me the evidence is such that he meant something somewhat less rigid.

If we take VDW's four terms before "Hard Work":

Ability: is, I think, objective;

Form: it is quite clear than there are significant differences of interpretation among those who think they understand how VDW assessed in-formness, and as far as I can see no practicable way of knowing which, if indeed any, of us is right. I therefore comment only in relation to my own understanding, and that is that VDW's means of assessment was substantially objective, in the sense of rule-bound, BUT with an element of subjectivity in exceptional cases. For example, as is well known, VDW occasionally "excused" a seemingly poor run (Gaye Chance being the most obvious). Mostly, these "excusals" also follow discernible "rules", but one or two suggest to me that VDW made (appropriate) one-off judgements to suit particular, indeed idiosyncratic, circumstances;

Capability: as we know that VDW did not insist that certain objective criteria were met, eg that a horse had won (or even run) over the distance of the race under consideration, I cannot see that this term was handled other than subjectively;

Probability: I haven't a confident enough idea of what VDW meant here to offer more than a tentative opinion, which is that to me "probability" (other than in relation to strictly controlled situations, such as coin tossing) connotes subjectivity.

Thus with, in my view, two of the four terms certainly involving subjectivity, and only one clearly based wholly on the objective, VDW was right to speak of his approach as a methodical one rather than as a system in the sense in which I've indicated I think he used that term.

Fair comment Fulham.
I agree 30 points is exceptional and I don't seriously think it will happen many times. Even so 10 a month would do fine.
To be fair it has took me a long time to try and discover when and where this approach works.In fact you can't really have exact rules. A lot of thought and common sense is needed.
Note that there are never many selections atall in 'A' races, because, of course, its not easy to find horses dropped in prize money, by their very nature.
Swish

Any chance of having a look at some of your winners?

Swish

I suspect your "10 [points] a month would do fine" may be the first statement on this thread to which everyone would agree!

I seem to have missed all the excitement. However, I'd have thought the Gummy board was about the only one Joan in brasil could be a member of without the site being subject to FBI scrutiny. Hmm.

Nessie
Yes I shall list some of the winners for you.
Would you like some of the losers as well?
WINNERS
13/9/03
THYOLO 1.55 GOODWOOD
FULL MINTY 4.30 BANGOR
12/9/03
DVINSKY 2.0 GOODWOOD
PHILDARI 2.10 SOUTHWELL
11/9/03
GLENCOYLE 3.50 CHEPSTOW

LOSERS
12/9/03
FAR LANE 1.45 DONCASTER
MILLSTREET 3.30 DONCASTER
11/9/03
DANGER OVER 3.10 EPSOM
9/9/03
FOX COVERT 2.20 CATTERICK
Have a look at those. If you wish I shall give you some more
Swish

BOOZER
I think I have just adressed my answer to Nessie. Of course I can't check because now my post is in a queue, I can't view it.
Apologies either way
Cheers
Swish

Hello VDW'ers

I'm completely new to VDW, but have an avid interest, so I hope you'll be patient with me.

I've started reading this thread from the beginning - but will obviously have to do it in snatches.

I'm obviously eager to start practising the VDW methodology - despite knowing very very little.

As there is a Class A race today - Yarmouth 4.20 - I thought I would have a practise. Please forgive the clumsiness of a novice, but I am hoping someone would be kind enough to let me know if I am on the right lines.

I see the horse with the highest Ability as DAWNUS.
The consistent Form horse is BENEVENTA, but this horse is going up in prize money, whereas DAWNUS is dropping down.

At this early stage, should I therefore discount this race as having no clear winner?

My crude analysis has rather favoured DAWNUS. Won LTO over distance at higher prize money at a higher weight. Proven on Going and is progressive.

The dark horse is the German BAYADERE - only raced once in this Country.

Would VDW'ers dismiss this race - am I being influenced by my own form-study methods rather than VDW when siding with DAWNUS?

I would appreciate your comments - and constructive criticsm of course

Best wishes

This thread is now back to normal but any disruptions and the messages will be put in a moderation queue again.

Trojan your avatar is on the blink this is because if you hot link a picture direct from a website and it goes down the picture goes with it and I think the German website with all the smileys on etc has gone bust.

This is what it says on the site
Smiley-Bomb.de ist vorübergehend geschlossen

Gummy

Thanks Gummy - I didn't know what was wrong!

Trojan

On my interpretation of VDW's approach, I agree with you that Dawnus and Beneventa both have excellent chances today. In VDW's terms they are, respectively, the class/form horse (c/f) and 2nd c/f.

Personally, I can't find a logical basis for separating them clearly enough to home in on one of them with confidence for a bet, but others probably can. Backing both, for an even money return at the forecast prices, would be one answer, but I see others as not without realistic chances, too (Vicereine being perhaps the most likely of these), so it is a no bet race for me.

Hi all
First just like to say it's good to see constructive posts back,rather than the distructive one's of late.

A couple of general question if anyone would like to answer?

1) What is the minimum value (class) of race we should be looking at,and to add to that is there a maximum number of runners.
2) In general how many bets per week (month) does the method select.

Thanks in advance

P.S.
It's also good to see that my interpretation of
the Yarmouth 4.20 is the same as Fulhams, on the form aspect of the race would the more knowledgeable VDWers agree that Beneventa's previous form is slightly better than Dawnus,especially it's last race.
Cheers Paul

Now this i s interesting. I would be very interested in waht happens in this race.

 YARMOUTH 17 Sep 2003 4:20 Royal Bank of Scotland John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Class A) (Listed Race) (3yo+) Winner £13 000.00 (1m2f21y)1m2f GD-FM , 9 Runners 

 Silence Is Golden,,..................................Form 2h*¬2h*¬3h*  (7)  sp lto 9/1, wgt 8-11, ln 2 Av = 25k**  Ab = 0k  Score=6+4
 70%  100B 10f 3h*/1 9rs**  GF Yor  18K    (28 days)(g)   (** DIST  placed ?)    ***DOWN in class from 18K to 13K, BUT chk figures (8-11,)
 158%  101B 10f 2h*/1 13rs  GF Hay  40K    (39 days)(g)   (** DIST  placed ?)
 64%  97B 10f 2h*/¾L 11rs  Gd Asc  17K    (53 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
   .................................. (100%)
 Echoes In Eternity,,..................................Form 8 ¬3 ¬8   (19)  sp lto 11/2, wgt 8-8, ln 27 Av = 26k** , Ab = 5k  Score=6+1
 55%  78A 8f 8 /10 9rs**  GS San  18K    (18 days)   (UP in dist, Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 18K to 13K,  No improv (8-8, )
 98%  97A 9f 3 /2 5rs  GF Sal  26K    (35 days)(g)      (Chk Dist placed ?)
 104%  78A 10f 8 /15 8rs**  GF Yor  34K    (127 days)(g)   (** DIST  Unpl)
   .................................. (87%)
 Quiet Storm,,..................................Form 1 ¬3h*¬2   (6)  sp lto 16/1, wgt 8-5, ln 3 Av = 15k** , Ab = 6.5k  Score=5+3
 100%  98A 9f 2 /½L 5rs  GF Sal  26K    (35 days)(g)     (Chk Dist PLACED **)    ***DOWN in class from 26K to 13K,  CHK for improv (8-5, )
 31%  90C 12f 3h*/3 8rs**  GF Asc  9K    (68 days)(g)  (Down in dist placed ?)
 34%  88C 9f 1 /½L 5rs  GF Sal  10K    (99 days)(g)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
   .................................. (56%)
 Dawnus,,..................................Form 1 ¬4 ¬1h*  (6)  sp lto 7/1, wgt 9-1, ln 4 Av = 14.3k** , Ab = 9.3k  Score=8+5
 73%  99A 9f 1h*/hd 8rs**  Fm Bri  19K    (21 days)     (Chk Dist  + WIN **)    ***DOWN in class from 19K to 13K  IMPROVING *** (9-1, )
 69%  93A 12f 4 /7 5rs  GF Nmk  19K    (60 days)(g)  (Down in dist Unpl)
 18%  92D 10f 1 /3 8rs**  Gd Pon  5K    (71 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (54%)
 Irtahal,,..................................Form 4 ¬1 Mdn ¬6   (11)  sp lto 13/2, wgt 8-5, ln -1 Av = 14.3k** , Ab = 5k  Score=4+1
 48%  69A 8f 6 /17 11rs  Gd Asc  18K    (54 days)   (UP in dist, Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 18K to 13K,  No improv (8-5, )
 19%  100D 8f 1 Mdn /20 3rs  GF Asc  5K    (67 days)(g)   (UP in dist,  + WIN **)
 78%  100A 8f 4 /2 7rs  GF Goo  20K    (118 days)(g)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
   .................................. (49%)
 Ribbons And Bows,,..................................Form 9 ¬7h*¬5   (21*)  sp lto 25/1, wgt 8-8, ln 30* Av = 12.7k, Ab = 3k  Score=5+1
 18%  79C 10f 5 /7 8rs**  Gd Eps  6K    (7 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)    UP in class from 6K to 13K,  No improv (8-8, )
 22%  72C 8f 7h*/11 8rs**  Gd Wdr  8K    (30 days)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
 72%  77A 8f 9 /12 9rs**  GF Don  24K    (370 days)(g)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
   .................................. (38%)
 Beneventa,,..................................Form 1h*¬1h*¬1   (3)  sp lto 5/6F, wgt 9-1, ln -6 Av = 8k, Ab = 7.2k  Score=5+9
 41%  105C 10f 1 /2 3rs  GF Yar  10K    (24 days)(g)(c)    ** DIST + WIN **    UP in class from 10K to 13K  IMPROVING *** (9-1, )
 36%  102C 10f 1h*/2 6rs  GF Nmk  9K    (40 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **
 18%  96D 10f 1h*/2 4rs  Gd Asc  5K    (54 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (31%)
 Vicereine,,..................................Form 5 Mdn ¬1 Mdn ¬5   (11)  sp lto 8/1, wgt 8-9, ln 7 Av = 8.7k, Ab = 3k  Score=5+3
 64%  91A 10f 5 /1 9rs**  GF Nby  18K    (97 days)(g)   (** DIST  Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 18K to 13K,  CHK for improv (8-9, )
 8%  69E 8f 1 Mdn /nk 8rs**  Fm Bat  3K    (105 days)   (UP in dist,  + WIN **)
 14%  72D 9f 5 Mdn /6 14rs  GF Goo  5K    (118 days)(g)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
   .................................. (28%)
 Bayadere,,..................................Form 1 Mdn ¬2 ¬3   (6)  sp lto 16/1, wgt 8-1, ln 7 Av = 8.7k, Ab = 1k  Score=1+2
 32%  91C 10f 3 /2 6rs  Gd Don  9K    (102 days)   (** DIST  placed ?)    UP in class from 9K to 13K,  CHK for improv (8-1, )
 0%  01x 8f 2 /6 3rs  Sft Hnv  16K    (318 days)   (UP in dist, placed ?)
 0%  01x 7f 1 Mdn /1 3rs  Gd Bre  1K    (410 days)   (UP in dist,  + WIN **)
   .................................. (10%)
 

I am still learning but will be dutching / hedging these for small stakes.

BEVERLEY 17 Sep 2003 5:35 Saffie Joseph And Sons Maiden Auction Stakes (Class E) (2yo) Winner £2 493.40 (7f100y)7½f GD-FM , 12 Runners 

 Barton Flower,,..................................Form 11 Mdn   (30)  sp lto 50/1, wgt 8-8, ln 9 Av = 6k**  Ab = 0k  Score=5+1
 100%  47E 7f 11 Mdn /9 19rs  GF Yor  6K    (14 days)(g)   (** DIST  Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 6K to 2.5K  IMPROVING *** (8-8, )
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
   .................................. (100%)
 Kythia,,..................................Form 3 Mdn   (9)  sp lto 100/30, wgt 8-8, ln 3 Av = 4k**  Ab = 0k  Score=6+1
 83%  59E 7f 3 Mdn /3 9rs  GF War  4K    (23 days)(g)   (** DIST  placed ?)    ***DOWN in class from 4K to 2.5K  IMPROVING *** (8-8, )
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
   .................................. (83%)
 Danish Monarch,,..................................Form 2 Mdn ¬6 Mdn ¬2 Mdn   (10)  sp lto 10/1, wgt 9-0, ln 13* Av = 4k**  Ab = 0k  Score=4+2
 49%  70F 7f 2 Mdn /¼L 8rs  GF Fol  2K    (16 days)(g)   (** DIST  PLACED **)    Same class 2K,  No improv (9-0, )
 70%  40D 6f 6 Mdn /11 6rs  GF Hay  5K    (60 days)(g)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
 122%  69D 6f 2 Mdn /2 9rs  GF Sal  5K    (75 days)(g)      (Chk Dist placed ?)
   .................................. (80%)
SANDOWN 17 Sep 2003 4:40 Ford Magic E B F Maiden Stakes (Class D) (2yo) Winner £4 134.00 (1m14y)1m GOOD , 11 Runners 

 Fahlawi,,..................................Form 4 Mdn   (12)  sp lto 16/1, wgt 9-0, ln 4 Av = 7k**  Ab = 0k  Score=4+0
 100%  74D 7f 4 Mdn /4 11rs**  GF Nby  7K    (32 days)     (Chk Dist Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 7K to 4.1K,  CHK for improv (9-0, )
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
   .................................. (100%)
 Duke Of Venice,,..................................Form 3 Mdn   (9)  sp lto 11/2, wgt 9-0, ln 4 Av = 5k**  Ab = 0k  Score=4+0
 69%  72D 6f 3 Mdn /4 12rs**  GF Hay  5K    (103 days)   (UP in dist, placed ?)    ***DOWN in class from 5K to 4.1K, BUT chk figures (9-0, )
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
   .................................. (69%)
 Dhehdaah,,..................................Form 6 Mdn   (18)  sp lto 25/1, wgt 9-0, ln 10 Av = 4k Ab = 0k  Score=0+1
 42%  55D 8f 6 Mdn /10 8rs  GF Nmk  4K    (33 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)    Same class 4K,  No improv (9-0, )
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
   .................................. (42%)
YARMOUTH 17 Sep 2003 2:10 European Breeders Fund Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class D) (2yo) Winner £4 153.50 (6f3y)6f GD-FM , 11 Runners 

 Coqueteria,,..................................Form 7 Mdn   (21)  sp lto 20/1, wgt 8-11, ln 6 Av = 8k**  Ab = 0k  Score=5+1
 100%  63D 6f 7 Mdn /6 12rs**  GF Nmk  8K    (69 days)(g)   (** DIST  Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 8K to 4.2K  IMPROVING *** (8-11,)
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
   .................................. (100%)
 Go Between,,..................................Form 4 Mdn ¬3 Mdn ¬2 Mdn   (9*)  sp lto 5/1, wgt 8-9, ln 5* Av = 6k**  Ab = 0k  Score=4+2
 62%  79E 7f 2 Mdn /½L 6rs  GF Eps  4K    (23 days)(g)     (Chk Dist PLACED **)    Same class 4K,  No improv (8-9, )
 46%  58D 5f 3 Mdn /4 8rs  GF Hay  4K    (40 days)(g)      (Chk Dist placed ?)
 160%  81D 6f 4 Mdn /1 6rs  GS Goo  10K    (49 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)
   .................................. (89%)
 Doohulla,,..................................Form 3 Mdn   (9)  sp lto 14/1, wgt 8-11, ln 2 Av = 4k Ab = 0k  Score=4+1
 61%  77D 6f 3 Mdn /2 8rs  GF Goo  4K    (24 days)(g)   (** DIST  placed ?)    Same class 4K  IMPROVING *** (8-11,)
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
   .................................. (61%)  

PJCK,

VDW subscribed to evaluating the most valuable race on the card, and suggested that we consider the next most valuable race from the same card. Also to evaluate the most valuable races from the remaining cards.

It is impossible to give an answer to your second question, as it is dependent on how well versed one is with VDW.

In the 4.20 I’m pretty confident that it would have been a race that VDW would leave alone. The class/form horse, Dawnus, improved last time but has a question mark in terms of the tracks that she’s won on – will this faster track suit her? From the forecast, Quiet Storm also improved last time out when upped in class, and is coming from the highest class race. But then there’s also Beneventa, a course winner, who is highly consistent in lower class, and it’s impossible to know if there will be any improvement in this higher-class race. So in my opinion it’s definitely a race to leave alone.

Forecast prices. 1st 5 non hand and 1st 6 handicaps as vdw said. Do we not always look at the fc to see if the compliers have made a mistake? how often do we study the form pick a horse and then see that the price is too short? in vdws day I think prices were a lot better than now. and dutching opportunitites easier.What I have foundis that the odds compliers dont get it wrong very often, you generally get the wiiner from the 1st 3 in the market. The strength of the formness is not given by the shortness of the price but the weak prices of the others.
if a fav is fc at 4/1 it is no fav(25%) A FAV AT 6/4 (40%>30%) is fair. But a 6/4 fav followed by a 7/4 or 9/4 is no good either.I read some where that the winner comes from the fc odds less than number of runners. so 8 runners and winner will be 8/1 or less. (bloody obvious i suppose) but heres a funny thing. Multiply the fav odds by 3. and the winner is found in the horses of within that price band. so a 2/1 fav means that the winner comes at 6/1 or less.
if that odds band only covers max 3 horses then the winner will be found over 75% of the time. so a 2/1 fav 2nd fav5/2 3rd fav 4/1 4th fav 7/1 then the winner will be one of the 1st 3 in fc 75% of the time. This is something that I think VDW hinted at by saying study the forecasts which these days compiled by computer from stats.

food for thought?

Thanks Chaz
Regarding the second question,if i was well
versed in VDW what would have been some of the recent selections,and could (would) anyone name a few so they can be researched.
Cheers in anticipation

Paul

Thanks Fulham, I left the race alone.

Well done Nessie - you got the Reverse Forecast - are those your own ratings?