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Forum Manager Member  |
I once said that I was afriad to post because of not being able to defend myself b y typing though I cpould and would defend my self face to fsace. Thanks Gummy for steping in.
So on with the thread I hope. Fulham. Do you consider the missing link to be how you interpret form. I look at it in simply factual terms by applying all that can be read and then loaded into tables and then each item of form is sorted. hence my percentages etc. If you had say 7 items of form that you regarded as important what would they be? Also I asked you about your method of staking. I see that you like e/w. Do you use VDW point per bet staking but e/w? ANother question. When looking at the paper RP you can see the total winnings a horse has acheived from this we get the abiltity rating. On the RP website I have noticed that you only get the value of the race that was won and notn the actual winners prize money. Does this mater? PLease can you help. |
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Growler Member  |
Nessie,
Missing link..............lol |
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Forum Manager Member |
Thnaks for yet another imformative reply three legs.
DONCASTER 13 Sep 2003 4:45 Trilogy Nightclub Doncaster Nursery (Class D) (2yo 0-85) Winner £7 436.00 7f GOOD , 22 Runners Handicap Overdrawn,,..................................Form 4*¬1 ¬2* (7) sp lto 11/2, wgt 9-10, ln 4* Av = 11k** , Ab = 5.5k Score=6+3 100% 94B 8f 2*/¾L 16rs Gd Don 14K (2 days)(g)(c) (Chk Dist PLACED **) ***DOWN in class from 14K to 7.4K, CHK for improv (9-10,) 49% 82C 6f 1 /shd 14rs GF Yor 8K (6 days) (Chk Dist + WIN **) 63% 76C 6f 4*/4 11rs GF Yor 11K (25 days) (Chk Dist Unpl) .................................. (100%) Go Bananas,,..................................Form 1 Mdn ¬3 ¬5 (9) sp lto 9/2, wgt 8-3, ln 6 Av = 8k** , Ab = 4k Score=5+3 72% 73B 6f 5 /3 10rs GF Nmk 13K (21 days) (Chk Dist Unpl) ***DOWN in class from 13K to 7.4K IMPROVING *** (8-3, ) 40% 77D 7f 3 /3 11rs GF Nby 7K (41 days) (** DIST placed ?) 22% 74D 6f 1 Mdn /¾L 20rs GF Wdr 4K (68 days) (Chk Dist + WIN **) .................................. (62%) Lyca Ballerina,,..................................Form 4 Mdn ¬5 Mdn ¬6* (15) sp lto 9/2C, wgt 8-0, ln 20 Av = 8.7k** Ab = 0k Score=4+1 69% 65C 7f 6*/6 14rs Gd Goo 14K (42 days)(g) (** DIST Unpl) ***DOWN in class from 14K to 7.4K, CHK for improv (8-0, ) 18% 48D 6f 5 Mdn /10 12rs GF Hay 5K (99 days) (Chk Dist Unpl) 39% 75D 6f 4 Mdn /4 14rs Gd Nby 7K (119 days)(g) (Chk Dist Unpl) .................................. (60%) Russian Ruby,,..................................Form 9 ¬1 Mdn ¬8* (18) sp lto 15/2, wgt 9-3, ln 20 Av = 7.7k** , Ab = 4k Score=1+1 22% 60D 6f 8*/10 9rs GF Red 5K (49 days) (Chk Dist Unpl) UP in class from 5K to 7.4K, No improv (9-3, ) 21% 71D 6f 1 Mdn /1 10rs Fm Not 4K (63 days) (Chk Dist + WIN **) 67% 63A 6f 9 /11 9rs GF Nmk 14K (77 days) (Chk Dist Unpl) .................................. (51%) GOODWOOD 13 Sep 2003 3:30 Tote Select Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) (3yo+) Winner £29 750.00 (1m1f192y)1m2f GOOD , 5 Runners Kaieteur,,..................................Form 6 ¬3 ¬2 (11*) sp lto 14/1, wgt 9-0, ln 13* Av = 264k** , Ab = 30.5k** Score=7+4 100% 120x 10f 2 /¾L 13rs Gd Arl 375K (28 days)(g) (** DIST PLACED **) ***DOWN in class from 375K to 29.8K IMPROVING *** (9-0, ) 57% 121A 10f 3 /2 15rs GF San 214K (70 days) (** DIST placed ?) 48% 107A 10f 6 /11 10rs GF Asc 203K (87 days) (** DIST Unpl) .................................. (100%) Muqbil,,..................................Form 2 ¬1 ¬12 (13) sp lto 9/1, wgt 9-0, ln 6 Av = 83k** , Ab = 21k Score=5+2 41% 101A 8f 12 /7 20rs Gd Nmk 185K (133 days)(g) (UP in dist, Unpl) ***DOWN in class from 185K to 29.8K, CHK for improv (9-0, ) 7% 112A 7f 1 /1 8rs GF Nby 29K (154 days) (UP in dist, + WIN **) 8% 107A 7f 2 /½L 5rs** GF Nmk 35K (346 days) (UP in dist, PLACED **) .................................. (26%) |
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Growler Member |
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Fulham:
III All I was saying was that Dr Fulham Yes, I know exactly what you were saying. I don`t have a Phd but I`m not completely stupid. If it appears sometimes that I take the hook and the line, you`re pushing your luck to expect me to take the sinker as well  Now, shall we get back to a bit of mutual respect. I`m pleased to see you tapping the board again. By the way, you`ve got to give Nessie 10/10 for trying  |
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Long Shot Member  |
Nessie
glad to see you posting on the forum again i always look forward to Oldtimer and your posts they are more in depth than i can get and a good read correct spelling or not keep on posting have fun |
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Member |
Gummy I'm prepared to give it another go. I will say I don't think stopping people from posting is the way to go. It is the posting that should be delated if it is irrelevant to the thread. Constructive criticism should always be welcome. This is my posting to another forum. It is the discussion if any, after the race I find as important if not more so, than the thoughts before the race.
***************************** Hi, May just be me but I'm finding today very hard. Find a horse and the prices on offer seem very tight. In the Leger I am having trouble between being a punter and a racing fan. I would love to see Moments Of Joy win, and if I do decide to have a bet against her (very unlikely). In a tight finish with mine I would still be shouting her home. Daft as a brush or what? Don 2:20 I have this between 2 El Coto, top rated and Island Light. LI is outclassed on my figures, so the decision should be easy. Happy with the track, distance jockey, etc. Don't understand the last run, and there is just a nagging doubt. Will decide a bit later, may pop down the local (church) and ask for some divine inspiration. 2:50 Arcalis is the best horse, but the draw is of no help. Another big worry is Chantress I have her as out classed, but a better expression is unproven. Unproven because she has never been asked. The price about A nowhere near covers these doubts. 4:14 The favourite is the class horse your way and mine. He is not consistent, as I can find no reason to forgive his poor run in the Derby. For me there isn't another horse with the class I would be looking for in the race. Phoenix Reach comes out best on my figures but lacks the class. For the first time in many years I won't be having a bet in this race. Not even a fun bet on MOJ. 3:30 Good I make this very tight and the prices are to tight. The only thing I will say IF any of these beat Priors Lodge they will know they have been in a fight. The worry is how many hard races can he take? Even though he is a horse in his prime you can't keep going to the well, is 21 days enough time to get over his last race? The Irish Leger I think the course is wronr for Bollin Eric. That is working fro the book on courses I have. Has anyone been there who could explain what the course is like. My book says stiff, uphill finish. When you look at the top class horse that win there, horse I wouldn't expect to cope with the course win. Is that because they win on sheer class or is the description slightly misleading? Anyway Be Lucky if you play Just back from the church not a lot of luck there, but when I came out the sun was shining. That may have been the sign, so I'm having a go on El Coto. |
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Member |
Likewise, here's my thoughts, but not very detailed today as there isn't much that takes my fancy. Lets hope things will move forward from now on.
For me today there isn’t a great deal that I’m interested in. If it hadn’t been for the draw I would have backed Arcalis to win, but he has it all to do from the wide outside. Brian Boru may win the St Ledger, and yes he’s been running in better class, but only 2 wins from 7 starts, he’s not for me. The Irish St Ledger should go to Vinnie Roe, who’s been an absolute model of consistency in recent times. Good Luck today if you play. |
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Growler Member |
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Mtoto:
Gummy I'm prepared to give it another go. Gummy, Have you been deleting your own posts, I can`t find the one of you asking Moano to reconsider ? |
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Member |
3L,
May I ask what the point is in referring to Mtoto as Moano? Why are continually on a mission to wind him up? It’s pathetic. |
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Growler Member |
Chaz
It`s self explanitary. Besides which I`ve never complained at the (far worse) names he addresses me by. Have a look for yourself, then post to him if you still feel the same way. |
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Member |
Several people have opined that form is more reliable in larger fields and particularly over shorter distances, this I take it is based on the idea that the horses cant hang around and we get a so called true run race. On the other hand there is the effect of the draw (this is proportional to the size of the field) which as an unquantifiable makes the assessment of the value of previous runs in large fields problematic. There was a case on the 80% thread where the three people who offered a selection for the race all chose Texas Gold, Lochridge had better previous than Texas Gold but had been well beaten by it on it's last run. The RP suggested that this could have been a consequence of the draw, I dont think we even need to conjecture about that, the previous race had been in a field of twice that of the one under consideration so why would anyone consider the form to be relevent? The main point of posting the mean figures throughout the 80% thread was to try to show that it is easier to find the winner if the field is smaller and if the distance is further, was it a waste of time keeping track, working out and posting those figures? Is it still the general conviction that higher "class" of race is what's most important for solubility?
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| <Fulham>
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Nessie
The replies to your four questions are: 1). I believe that the term "missing link", used I think for the first time in VDW's article of 13/4/85, was used in respect of how he assessed "in-formness" for the purpose of identifying "form" and "class/form" horses as per that article, the previous one (26/1/85), the subsequent one (18/1/86) and, more speculatively, ALL VDW's selections prior to those articles, and most of those subsequent to them. (The only exceptions I make are the twelve selections he found by his "Handicap Hurdles" and "Best Bet/Next Bet" methods, both of which he stated were different from what else he had shown us.) 2. IF my interpretation of how VDW assessed in-formness is right (and it is fair to say that those who work this way, such as Guest, Chaz, Lee and I sometimes reach different conclusions, so what any of us says is only a personal interpretation), then it is not a matter of cumulating or considering factors in the way that I (perhaps incorrectly) understand your question to imply. Rather, it is a question of deducing "rules" from the examples VDW gave us and applying those rules to current races. It is hard to convey what I mean clearly, but the "rules" as I deduce them enable one to create what might be thought of as "form" or "not form" templates, against which one can assess a current horse, and as you'll know from VDW's Pegwell Bay example, these templates normally need only to take account of a horse's last three runs. 3) As to staking, I mainly back longer priced horses in handicaps and when so doing invariably back EW. Crudely, I divide my bets into two: "strong" (a solid c/f or other form horse with everything lined up) and "modest" (something I think has a decent chance and is a worthwhile bet at the available price, but which lacks something that deters me from a full stake). In practice I bet at level stakes in both types, but with (currently) a fivefold differential, ie I'll put five times as much on a "solid" bet than a "modest" one. I do not use progressive staking plans. 4) I almost always sort out ability ratings from the "Total win prize money" figures given in the paper version of the Racing Post. On rare occasions when I work on a race the previous evening, I use the "Total win prize money" figure in the latest "Racehorse Record", to which I add from the current Form Book the win prize money for any races won after the "Raceform Record" went to press. I thus rarely if ever use the on-line Post for this task, and when I do I add up the win value of each race won from the horse's record page. I've always assumed that this is merely a laborious way of getting the figure that will be available, already aggregated, in the following day's Post, but your post suggests that this may not be the case. If it isn't, it does matter. I am sure VDW got his ability ratings from the Sporting Life in a comparable way to how I get mine from the printed Post (the mistake he made over Bonny Gold is, to my mind, clear evidence for this presumption). |
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Member |
3L,
Like I say, in my view it’s pathetic particularly that Mtoto is obviously trying to give things another go. You obviously disagree and feel it just to continue to wind him up, which is your choice. That said, your actions are pointless and won’t help the thread resume. |
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Growler Member |
Chaz,
I refer you to my previous post which is a factual statement. The salutation Moano is positivley mild in comparison with the manner he continually refers to me. If Moano is a pal of yours and you wish to turn a blind eye to his invective whilst posting about me, I have no problem with that, but don`t expect me to take notice of your one sided post. |
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Member |
3L,
My relationship with Mtoto has nothing to do with it. After Gummy’s post, and then Mtoto’s latest post I felt that he'd made an effort to move things forward. But for some reason you cannot let it lie. If you felt the same and wanted things to move on from the sorry state we have recently witnessed then you’d act in a more civil manner, so I can only deduce from the above that you’re happy with things as they are? |
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Growler Member |
Chaz,
With respect, you can deduce what you like. Unless and until Moano refers to me personally in a more concilliatory manner (which currently he hasn`t) and of course he ceases his continual whinging...................... |
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Growler Member |
Dr Fulham,
I`m sure Nessie will be more than pleased with your post, I enjoyed it to. |
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The Vital Spark Member  |
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Growler Member |
My thoughts exactly..............but I was enjoying the game.
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The Vital Spark Member |
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