Investor - The book with Paco Venture/Old feathers would have worked out about 2/1 on, so I didn't feel too inclined to get involved. Parasol/Adiemus perhaps should have been taken, but on balance it won't make a real difference to me in the long run. I use VDW staking method modified so as not to get too hot and it recovers any losses in the end.

Epiglotis

Just read the words: I'm sure you'll get there in the end.

MuchofMuchness
I've no idea what you're talking about, as far as I recall I'm the party whose offers of help have continually been rejected.

I'm going to add my two penneth,Not that it means a great deal.I have found it very hard lately to get involved with discussions because it's involved horses that i can't get the form books for i.e prominent King and friends,So generally the thread has been quite boring.

just lately iv'e not been able to get around a great deal,And decided to bury my head in the books then on saturday i got my r/p which i get everyday had a good look the main race of the day was obviously the lincoln 24 runner handicap not really my cup of tea.The next day looked in on gummy(it might even have been sunday can't remember,Anyway) guest said he had made a book with pablo/Adiemus i din't agree with adiemus so i had a good look at pablo,There was something there in the horses form that made me pick the books up again.

Over the period this thread has been running,Iv'e noted an awful lot of selections,And tried to understand why they would be considered for example the bunny boiler, mistletoe,So i got notes out of the cupboard and i can now see where Guest is coming from (with recent selections)And i'm sure he isn't pulling the wool over anybody's eyes,It's the form part that is the hardest part to grasp,Or how vdw interpreted form it is logical but it's taken me over a year to find it.

Guest
Thanks for the reply,At least i'm looking at it in the correct way.Thankyou

Epiglotis

I think MoM (for whose kind words many thanks) was referring to the time I offered to help you get to grips with VDW's writings by offering to buy off you the full set of the relevant booklets if, after reading them, you did not regard them as worth keeping.

Given your almost total ignorance of VDW's work, there is no reality in you offering to help anyone in this regard, but I don't doubt your generosity in other spheres.

Investor - I'm glad you have spotted the process in form reading that I have been trying to convey. Can I ask, did you say to yourself upon spotting the trend/process "why didn't I see it before?" or "How on earth could I have missed it?". I know I did.

I remember get quite a lot of stick of Mistletoe, but I'm sure you now see why I selected it.

Guest,

The only remark in your posting that offended me as the idea I can't think for myself. It would be very easy not to go into print disagreeing with you. I have tried to answer any question directed at me, you do have a tendency to throw open questions, directed to the whole board.

You ask about the last run by PK. If I'm totally honest I would say that was the run of a horse out of form. If I was using the c/form method he would have been eliminated on the strength of it. I can see were your coming from with Drumgora but isn't that based on conventional form analyse? something VDW told us to forget? Without anything to confirm his run in the big race was good form what use is it? Then there's the problem, just because a horse has improved in one race, how does that reflect as a positive for a horse that finishes behind it? I would rather use the criteria VDW set down. Why do you think he took the last 3 runs to judge consistent form? It could be he didn't think 2 runs was a strong enough. If a horse can get placed 3 times even when conditions may be against it in some of the outings, it proves it is consistent. (In saying this I will include a horse that isn't place in 1 of the last 3 if there is a good reason, or it still finished close up.) I then used the criteria shown by VDW in the Roushayd method, as that was the method I had used successfully for the last 3 years. It made sense, eliminated BL (without the is he isn't he in form) as shown in the other ratings. Something the usual conventional ratings wouldn't have done.

My doubt about how you think it works is, it is far to complicated. How are people very going to agree on the selected horse? We can only guess how VDW really read form, and even then will we all make the same decisions come the crunch. I also think many will/have come to some wrong conclusions about VDW's reading of form. Trying to eliminate horses trying to make the c/form method work for all races.

Your answer to the every horse question, every horse in the race is assessed. Then a short list of the possibles/probables is scrutinised in detail, (every detail) then a final selection is made. As shown at Cheltenham. Although I must say even then, I can/will change my mind at the last minute if circumstances dictate i.e. Prices, going, withdrawn horse changing the shape of the race, etc.

Looking at the Roushayd example also shows me why I don't except the relatively idea. Don't think VDW used it in those examples.

Be Lucky

Guest
To be quite honest i was shocked at first,But yes i did think that,infact i meant to say as much in my last post but i didn't want to be too dramatic about the whole thing.Unfortunately i have been one of many on here who have dug my teeth into you in the past,Again i can only apologise how you have managed to post over the period you have,
without giving the certain points away is beyond me,No i'll re phrase that you have put the points across but in a very clever way.I hope that others will eventually share my view in the future.

Guest
to be quite honest with you i was shocked,And yes i did say that to myself i was going to say the same in my previous post,But didn't want to be too dramatic,How on earth you have posted for the length of time you have without passing these points on is beyond me (well you have given them,But in a clever way)Unfortunately i have dug my teeth into you on occasions for which i can only apologise.I just hope that eventually those who haven't yet found what there looking for do so,Then they might realise that you have been helping them right from the very start,I would never have got this far without your perseverence through a lot of hostility that i now know you didn't deserve.

Guest
R.e mistletoe,Yes i do see the horse was massively overpriced,I couldn't understand why a book wasn't made but weight is a great leveller.

I share your suspicions.

Hi all,
After reading the latest postings by Guest, Mtoto, Fulham and other members of the group I have formulated my own ideas of class based on the Roushayd method.
VDW takes great time to talk of class and how he sees it. He stresses that we must take note of THE COURSES WHERE THEY RAN. It is my belief that the easiest way to highlight this is to liken that to the Football League for easiness.
If you take the grade 1 tracks eg. Ascot, Newmarket, Newbury, York, Sandown and Goodwood and call them the Premier Division then the group 2 tracks would be Division 1 the group 3 tracks Division 2 etc.
We all know that the Premier Division is for top class teams and where all the attention is usually pointed.
Division 1 teams do not have what it takes usually to make it in the premiership as witnessed each year when teams are promoted and then regularly relegated as being just short of class.
The same can be said of the other divisions.
When a premiership team plays one of the lower division teams (usually in cup matches) the result is usually a foregone conclusion.
I think horses and class can be looked at in a similar way and find this an easy way to distinguish form.
Sorry if it sounds boring but it works for me and I am sure that some of the other members will be able to identify with what I am trying to say.
See you soon, Mike.

Mtoto - Obviously you have put a lot of time and effort in and the comment about thinking for ones self was not mean't offensively in your direction. The point I was making was that anyone could and has followed the Roushayd approach in a systematic approach. That is easy to do based on the bare text, but it is far from the answer. VDW was showing us a cog in the machine. There are a lot of cogs that won't work in isolation, but combined they do turn the wheel. The point I have tried to convey is that some cogs are very similiar to each other, but there are many of them.

I don't agree that Drumgora/PK was that conventional, though it was no surprise that Drumgora won getting so much weight after a very good 3rd in a top class handicap. Interesting to note they both had the same rating.

For others interest Investor is not the first person from this forum to find the extended areas of VDWs approach. Once found, all it takes is time, application and experience. There are plenty of knocks to take on the way, but most crafts are perfected by experience and evaluating VDWs way is no different.

Guest/Investor
Well done Investor,if you have found the answers as Guest,seems to indicate.

Have either of you,or anyone else for that matter, looked at Regal Holly's race at Uttoxeter on the Saturday after Cheltenham,incidentally it was the same race that Mistletoe won last year,I would be interested in your thoughts on it.

Pipedreamer
I'm not all of a sudden going to turn into an expert on the subject,The temperement aspect i'm still unsure about,From the way i see it the horse you mention looked to have the attributes of "a winner in the race" incidently there was a good thing that ran today at southwell.

Mickeddy
Very interesting! and im sure it does help if your horse has "shown" at a decent class of track.

Are you talking about Mister Sweets

Boozer
what was the trainer telling you,I'm not putting any money down for a few weeks.Cos iv'e still got a few things to put right,I couldn't quite make my mind up about xaipete.

For anybody that is interested here is a table of courses and there grouping.

Flat

Group 1

Ascot
Ayr
Doncaster
Epsom
Goodwood
Haydock
Kempton
Newbury
Newcastle
Newmarket
Sandown
York

Group 2

Brighton
Chester
Lingfield (Turf)
Redcar
Ripon
Salisbury
Thirsk

Group 3

Bath
Beverley
Chepstow
Hamilton
Leicester
Nottingham
Pontefract
Windsor
Yarmouth

Group 4

Carlisle
Catterick
Folkstone
Lingfield AW (May have changed since new surface introduced)
Musselburgh
Southwell AW
Warwick
Wolverhampton