Cheers GarstonF. Thanks for the feedback.

A few years ago I bought a copy of the Sporting Chronical with G Hall's selections in it.
One of the things they all had in common was that they were Speedplus horses.
I wrote to RFU quite a while ago and asked what Speedplus meant. (They still list horses under that term.)
I was fobbed off with statement that they were thinking of getting rid of the Speedplus label, however, I notice that they are still using it. I suspect that it implies that a horse has improved its speed figure and this fits in with what VDW wrote in Systematic Betting regarding Roushayd, Desert Orchid etc.

If you read the Desert Orchid analysis, VDW only had his betting boots on when a horse had improved improved its speed figure. Furthermore,
if the horse improved its speed figure in a lower class than its previous run, he would only consider a 'dutching' bet (prices permitting).

Jonto,

Nice to see a new face.

A couple of years ago a friend went to the newspaper library and looked at the Speed + selections for the first few examples for me. He did this because I was sure they were speed based. Although I don't think the Erin would have been highlighted as it was an Irish race. So I'm a little surprised when you say Mr Hall's selections were all Speed + selections.

I did have a cutting of how the Speed + selections were formulated, but can't find it at the moment. From memory it was/is a combination of Split Second and the Raceform handicap ratings, plus a couple of other things. I had thought these may have been part of VDW other ratings because they would not have included any of the forecast information as they were compiled days before the race.

I'm still convinced one of the other ratings is speed based, and I think this was Mr Hall's key. All four of the named selections have a good s/f and this includes the other 3 he mentions, but VDW doesn't confirm. They would all have been to the fore in split seconds ratings for their races but in some cases NOT top rated. I would be amazed if Prominent King was the Speed + horse for the Erin in front of Beacon Light. On my working of the Split Second figures for this race Monksfield would have been top rated followed by BL, with PK 3rd in at best.

Good to hear from someone who has gone to the trouble to find the material to research these races. It makes a change from the folk that say it doesn't/won't work and the most (at best) they have done is given the booklets a quick glance. For all I know you may have come to that conclusion, you have taken the time to look, and I would be more inclined to believe you, than the other group.

Be Lucky

In tending my thanks and appreciation to C.Van der Wheil, can I persuade him to further elaborate upon his system for use over the sticks. The 'key' does not seem to produce as many bets.

If speed plus was the Key I cant see why it would produce less bets over the jumps

Jonto
Desert Orchid could have been found using conventional class and form (speed is no use without form) admittedly the situation was helped by him showing improvement through speed,But we can't bet on that alone.

As regards the "key" it is all to do with odds and temperement and not to go against the odds,Which i found to my cost when backing Manoram today.Mistakes are there to be rectified and of course learnt from.

Boozer
You are right about Speedplus not preventing selections over the jumps. I'll have a think and another squint at the old Sporting Chronicle.

Investor

I looked at Monoram but left it alone as he was 16/1 last time out in a 93 race which is not greatly higher than today's.
However, please don't think I'm some kind of expert; just feeling my way along but a bit more optimistic these days and trying to acquire temperament, ha ha!

Boozer,

Q Love From Verona unfindable with speed.

The "ONLY" Good thing,

although Gaffer "qualified" CVDW suggested we could only support this "type" in conjunction with the "Staking Plan".

I have scoured these two for Hours and Hours trying to find a Difference.

speed is no use without form

a flawed view imho

P.K.Boy
I don't know if this will put your mind at rest a little,But i'm pretty sure The Gaffer was found using class and form and would have fell into the H/cap n/hcap method.The same traits are there that are evident in contradeal,Grannies pet,Misty spirit,Yacare etc.

Ectoo,

Another example of your help and insight, a big help. Would it be possible to give a reason for your thinking, then we could all benefit. I don't think that statement by itself is much use to anyone.

For once I'm not saying I disagree with you. I also think this statement has been taken a little out of context from the way VDW intended. He said speed was a good guide to the worth of a race. I think all he was saying was the need to have form to back up the s/f. A bare s/f proves little until you look to see what it was achieved against. I would just be interested in your reasoning.

Be Lucky

it's simple Mtoto

form is totally irrelevant to the speed figure..the speed figure IS the form.

Ectoo,

Ok, I'm still in agreement. A horse wins say a low grade (top OR of 70) race by 6/8 lengths would you expect that form to be good enough to win a good B grade race? Would you expect it to have a better chance if it had scored a s/f of say 108 (I have know idea of the range of your s/f) 108 is a good figure in a low class race with the s/f I use.

I wouldn't back the horse with your money. I think this is what VDW was saying bare s/f prove nothing.

Be Lucky

Ectoo

That cant be right

I can't comment on your example Mtoto but I will stand by my speed figures ..if a horse puts the figure in to beat class B horses I would bet it.

VDW is WRONG in stating bare SF prove nothing..it's FACT that a slow horse cannot record a fast speed figure..although I do believe in placed horses getting dragged along to record a time they may only be able to produce in future if suitably dragged again.

There have been quite a few people on other forums say..how can Horse A be X figure ..that means that the horse it beat is Y figure which it has never produced before.

I strongly believe that the WINNER of a race records a figure it is capable of recording again..whereas placed horses in the same race may not produce them in future..simply due to the "drag along" factor.

Not many have expressed this view which I think is where many people ignore a good figure for a winner because the 2nd and 3rd horses come out and lose.

There is so much worth in accurate speed figures..I mean proper ones..not the shite they print in the RP..Topspeed is thoroughly flawed in many areas..mainly in the poor stab at standard times.

Drag factor is so not taken in to account..it's important imho

Ectoo,

Would you except a horse with a s/f from the top of your range but achieved in a lower class race. To beat a horse with the same figure achieved in a top class race. All other things being equal are these horse of the same standard?

I can see what you mean about the drag, and it is something I do try to take into account.

Be Lucky

If I see a genuine big figure in a lower class race I will bet the horse against supposedly higher class horses..yes...I have done on the AW a few times and posted them beforehand

It is not going to happen very often from very low class races on turf as they just won't be able to go fast enough early.. I think it would be a maiden winner possibly rather than any other race type winner..like RAMRUMA ..that would be a good example of a horse producing a big figure in a race that showed clearly she was Group 1 material.

Boozer,

Why is that wrong?

Form is a performance, a s/f is the numerical measure of a performance, so where's the difference? I know a race can be run in a slow time giving a low s/f but how trust worthy is that form? I would rather forget it, and trust in the form run in a good time.

If think the lack of VDW NH selections may have had a lot to do with the weather, meetings abandoned, gallops waterlogged or frozen. Also the quality races are few and far between.

Be Lucky

Mtoto/Ectoo

I have never been too impressed with Speed figures
If all races were run on tarmac, undercover,over 5 6 furlongs then yes
Or like American racing where they race on flat tracks and go full belt from the gate on dirt

Going allowances, standard times, class allowance
all prone to potential errors when calculating Speed figures and

Just because a horse wins a race in a slow time doesnt mean to say it cant run any faster which is why I cant do with this VDW upturn downturn Bollox

Heres a Bit from VDW which I find I would agree in a general sense

Ratings are also part of a mechanical procedure and should be regarded as a guide and not the be-all and end-all. A top-rated horse on a time basis is not much good if Form does not support it. Also ask the question, which is the better performance?, a winner at Redcar with a figure of 86 or a fourth at Epsom beaten three lengths in similar conditions with a figure of 79.

ECTOO,

Posted November 11, 2004 08:55 PM

"I can't comment on your example Mtoto but I will stand by my speed figures ..if a horse puts the figure in to beat class B horses I would bet it."


What a fantastic comment, I totally agree, Especially in all age sprints. I had Frizzante at 51/1 2yr ago, and Two Step Kid this year at 28/1. We certainly have a lot in common ECtoo. Whwther you appreciate it or not, your methods certainly have a lot in common with CVDW's methods.

Do you get up every morning and re-invent the wheel and re-invent the tyre before you ride to the stables?

BOOZER,

Dont forget RAIN, I spent years looking through the form books and then cross checking the weather reports to see if the course reports were correct and if it was Forcast rain or not. There was a 29.4% discrepency in,some horses, Mean SF and the actual times if it was, either A) Forcast to rain, or, B) Actually raining