there is a difference between trainer intent and trainer hope..a lot of trainers enter horses and hope for a win..especially in big races.

Ectoo,

Agreed but how does one sort out the intent from the hope? If the form book can be thrown away as some seem to be suggesting how do you do it? All I'm saying is the HORSE must be capable of for filling the intent, intent by its self isn't enough. In today's race I narrowed the race down to 3. All 3 trainers had won the race in the past, of the 3 I would have thought Johnson was the most likely. Someone pointed out he could have also been using the same tactic of compressing the weights, a fair point. Fallon has a good strike rate with Elision another fact to consider. A fact to consider a plus but again not a good enough reason by its self. Balding won the race last year with this horse, and this was his farewell. 3 trainers with every reason to have the intent. It comes down to the horse, and only one had all the required factors.

You say 'i only deal in before the race stuff Mtoto'. So do I, that's why that e-mail was written at 2:30am yesterday. As I've said before I have written enough on here that if you were interested you can work out well before the race my probable selections. If you can't and want help e-mail me I'm more than happy to explain anything you want to know. You are very unlikely to do that as you are sure it doesn't work, and it would be a serious eye opener.

Sorry to hear you have been having a tough time lately, never mind how you have found VDW maybe your fortunes will change. You must remember though even VDW doesn't win all the time. Like you I backed Ouija Board for the Arc.

Be Lucky

In the 3.10 AYR, Paperprohet looks the likely winner. The stable also has the topweight in The French Furze who is probably using this as a warm up for the fighting Fifth, but conveniently compresses the weights.

Bc
I doubt that I have the wrong Alan. The one I am thinking of was a former member of this forum but rarely contributed, whereas the other one contributed all too much.
Incidentally, I have read letter 13 more times than I care to remember, and the more I read it, the more convinced I am that G Hall had indeed found something of great value, which VDW did not expand upon until much later.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

Sorry to hear you have been having a tough time lately, never mind how you have found VDW maybe your fortunes will change

I "found" VDW about 25 years ago Mtoto, it's basic racing data, I've moved on.

Yes I haven't been doing well lately but most people know my selections before a race so I can't pretend I have wiiners afterwards.

I've still been doing better than any VDWer I've seen that posts before a race.

I had a good day yesterday and I think only on a VDW thread can someone post BEFORE a race and still be viewed as a lesser mortal by those that aftertime.

Sending emails has little to with what we are talking about here and more to do with you trying to convince me how good VDW is.

I know VDW is not profitable Mtoto and many of the "clan" have proved that in the past when asked to show a profit.

I don't understand why it is so important to show VDW is the holy grail when it patently isn't before races are run, only afterwards.

You say I can work out your selections..here's an easy way BEFORE a race to make that clear..just say that X is the winner. It's simple..not a load of " mentions" that can be twisted afterwards..clearly select a horse and say it will win.

The level of patronising by VDW students must be to an olympic standard by the way..is it part of being a follower?

coming round to the compression idea then John or are jumping on an already moving bandwagon?

I'll be having a go on PAPERPROHET without doubt and also a go on STRONG MAGIC in the 2.00 at Southwell for different reasons.

This must be a bit odd having CLEAR selections posted before a race on a VDW board.

ectoo.can you please explain the compresion idea? is it a drop in weights to a previous winning or good place mark? is it like a drop in class. I like to see progressive form and then a drop in weights. is this what you mean?

no it's simpler than that although you could get picky about the selected horse and check out it's actual form..which would mean you missing 100/1 winners

Basically it works better in big races where there is an incentive to win the prize.

The trainer basically puts a horse in the race with the intention of getting a decent "physical weight" for his other runner further down the weights.

The 3.10 at Ayr is a similar example to the race yesterday where Rigmarole was used to compress the weights for Perouse..in this race The French Furze is entered by Richards So that Paperprophet can carry 11.04. Of course Richards wouldn't have known for sure that St Mathew was going to take part which would have also helped Paperprophet even without TFF being there.

Now just ignoring OHR for a minute and concentrating on the actual weight carried it's clear that Paperprophet has previously carried 11-06 in a decent race at Ascot and beaten all bar one opponent..today his physical burden is less in what is a weaker race.

The trainer is basically framing the weights for another of his charges.

The apprentice takes another 10lbs off Paperprophet who seems a secure jumper thus a 'safe' ride for a 10lb claimer.

Interestingly in the RP form quotes the trainer expresses a sentiment (28-02-04) about how much weight the horse would be set to carry in its next race.

So would you dutch St Matthew and Paperprophet?

well done ectoo - with Strong Magic.

was that the 10lb allowance ??

no Nessie

St Matthew isn't part of it..it's the stable favoured Paperprophet the race has been geared for by Richards.

STRONG MAGIC wins easily so a nice weekend continues

A bit risky this thread, Last time these sentiments where aired, principally with one of PIPES(dearest ever jump horse) he was hauled in and fined 2k.

TC

I just thought it had the least against it, I didn't fancy Tyndarius off that mark and it's record after winning has been poor in the past..the rest just didn't look good enough considering SM had come back to form and was well in (had given weight and a good beating to a 95 horse in Adalie when it last won)

why is it risky???

it's a legitimate ploy for a trainer to run two in a race.

and did that stop him ??

PK BOY

talking about ideas for getting winners before a race has to better than talking about Beacon Light again doesn't it?

Ectoo,

I know I'm not the sharpest knife in the draw, but could you explain what exactly can be learnt from backing Strong Magic?

If the point in giving selections is not for the folk to back them and/or send you (or the poster) hearty congratulations when you win. There should be something to take from the selection that can be used in the future. Reading your post the main claim to fame seems to be he beat a 95!!! rated horse, there were 5 horses rated over that in this race. The biggest plus with this horse you haven't mentioned, but as it was something mentioned by VDW I can understand that.

You then say it is better to talk/think about this race rather than the Erin. If people decided to look at this race in 25 days time rather than 25 years what can they learn? The short answer is nothing. Wouldn't be of more use to go over yesterday's race in detail and learn from that? Agreed the compression of weights has been touched on, but is that the only reason for backing it? Didn't it have far more going for it than your selection today that was selected for that same reason?

Be Lucky

I know I'm not the sharpest knife in the draw, but could you explain what exactly can be learnt from backing Strong Magic?

First thing learnt, it's nice to have a winner

There should be something to take from the selection that can be used in the future.

Well, there was a magic ingredient in this race that only myself and the racing cult that I'm in know about, so I can only smugly say that you must look to find it..I know what it is and you must find out what it is..does this sound familiar?

Reading your post the main claim to fame seems to be he beat a 95!!! rated horse, there were 5 horses rated over that in this race

Yes Mtoto but you fail to grasp that when SM beat the 95 rated horse it was GIVING that rival 3 lbs and 15 length thrashing. Today, even though one opponent was rated 115... SM was, after allowances, receiving 2.5 stones from it.

Also that rival (Tyndarus)didn't figure for me as stated in the original post.

The biggest plus with this horse you haven't mentioned, but as it was something mentioned by VDW I can understand that.

Don't give me that aftertiming shite Mtoto, it's wearing a bit thin as is your sour attitude to someone posting winners not based on an imaginery Dutchman.

You then say it is better to talk/think about this race rather than the Erin. If people decided to look at this race in 25 days time rather than 25 years what can they learn? The short answer is nothing.

I learned a lot form it, your fixation with 25 year old races is worrying though..move on.

This VDW thing..it's a bit like saying that Janet & John books are the most important books ever written..see where I am going with that?

Come on Mtoto..sharpen it up a bit

I've been lucky

Ectoo,

It depends.

If one wants to understand CVDW, then its far more pertinent to understand the Erin as spelled out.

If you need to practically explore the application of VDW's methods, then a group of like-minded people, who understand CVDW's methods, either wholly or partly, then pre race discussion and analysis can be a big help, not from the viewpoint of following selections but from abandoning the race apart from putting the various viewpoints to the Test. Of course, this then leads to the conundrum of what to do with the information Gleaned from discussion? Blunder on regardless, or use that next time. Alternatively one can go back to the Erin and other examples to see if it’s relevant in his thinking.

Gives me cold shivers just thinking about all that hard work.

i don't want to take a retrograde step and bother with VDW though because all that stuff went in the artillery many years ago

like I said before..if I was reading War & Peace and someone said "read Janet & John instead as it has all the basics you will need" I might smile a bit.

I learn from every situation I get in with racing, so should everyone here. Forget races from 25 years ago..there's plenty every day to learn from.

Don't forget that Colin Davey bases his selections on VDW..now how has he made his money?..oh yes from selling those poor selections to unsuspecting newbies.

Says everything you need to know about VDW..move on to War & Peace..you might develop a little more you know

i don't want to take a retrograde step and bother with VDW though because all that stuff went in the artillery many years ago


well why do you want to discuss races?