YES!!,

111,

I failed to notice your post earlier, but as expected you didn’t let me down.

You remind me of a dog I used to have. Lovely little thing it was, but ever so stupid really. You know the type, I’d throw him a stick and of he’d trot to fetch it, time after time after time, without fail.

111, Fetch boy, fetch!!!!!

Guest,

I would like to congratulate you on today's results. True to form I would also like to ask a few more questions.

I agreed with most of your c/f horses, using my non vdw method. I did have trouble with L'epichuren, I couldn't find any class to put with the consistency. My real question is do you have another set of ratings, like vdw? I couldn't find an obvious way to make Dark And Sharp the second c/f horse.

I have spent a lot of time studying your posts, and think I understand how you are working. Even if I don't agree with the logic. As I don't use the ability rating as put forward by vdw, I may have made a mistake. I don't think so, I make other horses in that race with higher ability ratings and consistency ratings, that are in form your way. The other thing that surprised me is that you can forgive FP 2 bad races when he has won on the going, and at the course (Cheltenham) in that class. Of course I am not just taking the value of the race.

Operating the method my way, I would have made the same winning selections as you. The c/f horses that were rejected, may have been rejected for the same reasons as you. This we will never know, but for both of us they didn't stand up. I still don't understand why I am wrong, when we come up with very similar results. In many case the same c/f horses. I am still puzzled why, when you reject a c/f horse you don't take the 2nd c/f horse, if it stands up to scrutiny. When you have gone to the trouble to identify it.

Well done today, did I have the same sort of day? No, I was otherwise occupied, and didn't have the inclination to have a bet.

Regards

I couldn't disagree more with the sentiment that studying the past VDW examples is of more worth than paying attention to the material on this thread. The examples may well contain all the answers but, in my opinion, they are only beneficial to you if you have some inkling of what to look for, otherwise it's alot like looking for a needle in a haystack - a sentiment I'm sure those studying the examples presently would agree with. The text VDW wrote obviously points the way, but not many, if any, are expert at reading between the lines (smile Swish) to find everything that was hinted at.

The average person really hasn't got a cat in hells chance of solving all the relevant issues, without guidance such as that that has appeared on this thread. This is bourne out by the fact that all who have spoken with any degree of authority on this subject, have admitted needing some amount of help from a third party, along the line.

You certainly are one childish prat. Why don't you grow up? By the way, are you sure the dog didn't have you? It sounds like you're level.

Mtoto - Thanks for for the congratulations. I get the feeling from your second paragraph though, that you are taking a consistent horse as a form horse. Please correct me on this if I have got the wrong end of the stick. By class/form, I take that formula to be the class horse that is in form. This can mean overlooking class horses that are out of form including some who appear to be in form. A horse doesn't have to be consistent to be in form.

Turgeonev was a form horse. Totally outclassed last run and sent over the wrong trip,course previously after winning a valuable race at Ascot. Other factors showed him to have a lot on his plate though today, but he had to be respected as the class/form horse. Others with ability were NOT form horses in context of todays race and opposition. Dark N Sharp was a form horse and 2nd rated on class/form. Whilst he looked the most probable winner, there was a slight conflict in his 1st chase.

Florida Pearl was much more fancied in The Gold Cup of those runners today and didn't have a hard time of it unlike the 40/1 3rd SMB. FP also reportedly had a lung infection when scoped after the race. Previously below form on heavy ground in a gd1 contest (fav), but in great form under different conditions at Kempton before that. Todays race was by far the easiest opportunity he has had in his last 4 races (today incl).

It is not always the last run that tells the full story as I know you are aware,Mtoto. If you are finding consistent winners and making a profit then you are clearly not wrong in your approach. But I do maintain that your approach is mostly quite different to VDWs as I (and others) have interpretated it. Different is not necessarily wrong.

Aintree looks to hold some interesting action again tomorrow, but more of that then.

Bensam,
I did smile.

Guest,
In my view CLASSIFIED was simple to pick, BUT, FLORIDA PEARL was not, I certainly do not go on last race only, but even so I could not see how FLORIDA PEARL could win, but it did and (as I have said, I say things straight) well done for picking it AND having bottle to go on after your bad start,
Yours
Swish

Lee

It will come as no surprise to either yourself or your fellow VDW thread followers that I chose to reply to rather than ignore your latest facile post to me.

No one can be left in the slightest doubt where you stand, since you resolutely refused to refer to the subject matter of hypocrisy in your reply to my post.

I will pursue that matter no further, unless of course you insist.

Your strange analogy re your dog an myself would have been lost on most people, as it is on me. Since owners spend hours teaching their dogs to retrieve. And once success is acheived, they reward them, not call them stupid.

That said, and to change the subject, as you`ve declined to be my VDW mentor, do you think you could put in a good word for me to Guest.

111
.

111,

When I remarked regarding consistency of me congratulating people for their winner finding it was my intention that as soon as Guest threw up a couple of winners (which took longer than anticipated!), I would congratulate him. As I knew that you’d pick up on it and be in there straight away! And you didn’t let me down. I threw the stick, and you fetched it so to speak. That was all. By the way, I'll take back my remark about you being stupid, it was uncalled for.

Anyway, let’s put all of this behind us, and I’ll put in a good word for you with Guest. Nothing is certain though, and not everyone who applies is accepted. Dodgy handshakes and all that, and it only takes one black ball in the bag to be declined. I’ll do my best for you though!

Lee, Crock.
I didn't say that studying past examples was pointless did I?
I hope you pay more attention when reading vdw's missives!
regards,

Lee,

Your first paragraph is a classic backfit. Never-the-less I will accept your posting in the spirit in which I think it was sent. Peace has broken out.

Thankyou for aggreeing to speak with Guest on my behalf, be sure to tell him only my good points not the bad ones.

Good day to you.

111
.

111,

What bad points? Am I missing something here?

Carbury Cross and Westender look to have alot of plus`.

2nd day at Aintree and the principle race at 3.10 has Native Upmanship as the class/form horse. Also consistent and the form reads very well. He looks the most likely winner but there are one or two things that don't go entirely his way. No bet.

4.50 race has Barton as the class/form horse. Reportedly had a back ailment last time when down the field behind Moscow Flyer in the Arkle. Had been winning moderate races in his build up, but proven in top class hurdle races and has won at 2 previous Aintree festivals. Enough goes his way to make him a bet today.

2.00 shows Eau de Cologne the class/form with Carbury Cross 2nd on class/form. In depth study shows CC having the better form but there are other factors that don't go entirely his way. No bet.

2.35 The class/form horse is Westender and the form is very good in context. Hasn't been over raced recently and it will come as a surprise if he doesn't win. A good bet in my view.

3.45 Has Korakor c/f with Moor Lane 2nd c/f. Nothing really positive comes from an in depth study and it's a race to leave. No selection.

4.20 Shows Ballyamber as c/f but there are certain factors against. No selection.

5.25 Shows Ravenswood as c/f with Farinel 2nd c/f. Again though there are factors to deter any solid selection, but no surprise to see Ravenswood prevail. No bet.

So it's Westender and Barton for today. Good luck to anyone else having a bet.

Thanks for all that Guest, most interesting, some of it coincided with my lucky pin method.

I was hoping you might mention, well...... you know. Ah well never mind, maybe another time. Perhaps when I`ve been better behaved a bit longer.

Any way, good luck today,

111
.

I`m delighted to say that I have the same class/form horses as you and equally delighted that my decisions on investments just about agree with yours, ie -

Westender at odds against - a bet

Barton - a bet ( and my nap on the other thread )

Where we differ is Carbury Cross who I also feel is a bet.

I expect Ravenswood to improve at todays distance but the opposition today cannot allow him to be backed at the odds on offer.

Good luck,

Good result G, what was it 6.5 pts yesterday and another 2 today? Well done.

I see Guest has hit a rich vein of form recently and I would say Classified was a perfect example of the methodology in action, as good as any from "Spells it out" perhaps while Florida Pearl was a selection that showed a skilled practitioner at work as I think most of us would have left the race alone. However, I would question why Westender was a selection today. Class/form horse and a likely winner yes, but not in the top 3 for consistency taking the figures literally and more importantly ORs gave In Contrast the edge with a pull for the lengths beaten last time. The real clincher though is the evidence of our own eyes from the cheltenham race. The lengths lost by IC due to it searching out the inside running rail when the straight widened at cheltenham was more than enough to beat Westender even without the pull it was receiving today and there is no such significant widening at Aintree.

Guest,
I know you dont take much notice of ORs but I am wondering why you found no evidence of conflict.

Lee,
We are alike in that we both only tend to wager on "sitters". I am assuming you too found this one a no bet situation. Am I correct?

regards,

Statajack - As always i go back and re check every race evaluated after the event to help iron out any mistakes or points missed. Westenders only blip came with nigh on top weight in a very valuable handicap hurdle for which he was given a well deserved rest. He came back at Cheltenham making a real race of it with Like A Butterfly and of course In Contrast wasn't too far behind. However, In Contrasts winning form was nothing out of the ordinary and Westender certainly had the more likely credentials at Cheltenham. On the day today, Westender wasn't upto it, but on re checking I wouldn't have changed my decision.

Perhaps in Carbury Cross' race I did miss an opportunity as he clearly had the better form, but it was borderline on certain other factors. At least I corrected my mistake at Cheltenham with Japhet and confidently elimenated him today. Barton proved to be a very impressive winner just as he was last year in the big hurdle race on Saturday. In relation it is also worth noting Wahiba Sands and Fadalkos runs. Anyone know why?

Statajack,

Today was one of those days where I felt I knew what would win and what would lose but didn’t bet a penny. As it turned out I was right with my thoughts, however, there are just as many days where my conclusions are the same but things turn out to be totally the opposite, so it means nothing whatsoever.

I have to admit that Barton was the closest I came to betting today but I was deterred by the presence of Iznogoud. Westender was never close for me, purely down to the closeness of In Contrast, the eventual winner. Not so much on official ratings though.

Like I say it was a day where I didn’t play and so I claim nothing.

Classified yesterday was a sound bet in my eyes, and returned at a price that was far greater than his chances suggested. These bets come up often but not at that price

Today`s early thoughts – Aintree

Cordon Bleu Hcap
- my class/form horses are Benbyas and The Gatherer. Both consistent and expected to run well. That said top ability but inconsistent is Milligan who has ideal conditions for the first time since dotting up in the Swinton last year and of the 3 he is the selected however he is conceding masses of weight to 2 young and improving 5yo`s who I believe are far better than their present hcap marks.
- Conclusion – no bet but watch the race with an eye to future races at Ayr and Haydock.


Martell Novice Chase

- too much conflict for me, ie – any of the 3 principles namely Fondmont, Seebald or Armaturk could win today. For what it is worth I believe todays flat course will suit Armaturk far more than Seebald but other then that I can draw no firm conclusions.


Martell Aintree Hurdle

- my class/form horses are Billboa and Geos. Top on ability is Grimes, a horse I have great respect for but in my opinion close inspection of his form shows factors against. The 2 class/form horses are very closely matched on Champion Hurdle running however again close inspection of both in my opinion shows several factors against Geos today whereas Bilboa is getting a lot of plus points. Distance, a very important factor in top class events, has to be a worry but I take the view that at the price on offer this morning she is worth the `risk`.
- I expect a big run from Brother Joe, that said the form is not yet in the book.


Summary

One bet namely Bilboa.

Be left in no doubt I am still very much a novice with regards VDW methodology but I`m prepared to leave myself open to comment, etc on my evaluations before the race. Guest, as ever I would welcome your comments and if I`ve made `mistakes`tell me.

Come on Lee and Statajack tell me where I`m going wrong.

Good luck all,
-