Hi TC

I repent.

BlackCat

Wednesday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.


B 2:10 e 060- L not in 1st 5 betting
B 2:40 d 555- W
B 3:10 d 432- W
B 3:40 e 103- L
B 4:10 e 006- L
B 4:40 d 777- W - 4 runners
B 5:10 f 412- W
S 2:30 d 033- W
S 3:00 e 875- W
S 3:30 a 122- W - 3 runners
S 4:00 a 145- W
S 4:30 e 883- L
S 5:00 d 221- W
Y 2:20 d 466- W
Y 2:50 e 127- W
Y 3:20 g 928- L - 4 runners
Y 3:50 d 612- W
Y 4:20 d 222- W
Y 4:50 f 643_ W
Y 5:20 f 001- L
S 5:40 e 666- W - 6 runners
S 6:10 d 222- W
S 6:40 c 711- W - 4 runners
S 7:15 c 114- W
S 7:45 d 021- W
S 8:15 d 144- W
H 5:55 e 111- W
H 6:25 d 211- W
H 6:55 d 222- W
H 7:30 c 858- L
H 8:00 d 090- W
H 8:30 d 513- W - 4 runners

much better day - 25 wins from 32 races - 70 ish %

only 1 not in 1st 5 in betting

lot of small entry races tho !

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Tuppenycat: Your members of the top three that were also in the betting have been doing very well so I'm going to look at them in conjunction with another "lazy" man's way of assessing abilty. As the main point of VDW is to "narrow the field" I'll only be considering races of at least 10 runners, I'll also only be considering D class handicaps as their mediocrity gives a convenient fulcrum. Today the system(!) throws up two selections:
Sn 4:35 Aurelia
Ch 7:15 The Gaikwar

T C
Have you looked at the strike rate of horses that had not finished out of the first four in the last three races must be over 80% just in the ones you have been putting up with Consistency

have fun

Thursday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.


S 2:00 e 822- W
S 2:30 e 000- L
S 3:00 d 933- W
S 3:40 d 900- L not in 1st 5 in betting
S 4:15 a 044- W
S 4:50 e 650- L
S 5:20 e 809- L not in 1st 5
s 2:20 d 247- W
S 2:50 d 077- L not in 1st 5
S 3:25 c 530- L
S 4:00 d 244- W
S 4:35 d 227- W
S 5:10 d 262- W
H 6:00 f 066- L not in 1st 5
H 6:30 e 172- W
H 7:00 c 232- W
H 7:30 d 472- W
H 8:00 d 433- W
H 8:30 e 012- W
C 5:45 g 307- W
C 6:15 f 333- W
C 6:45 e 211- W
C 7:15 d 017- W
C 7:45 f 463- W
C 8:15 f 446- W

a much better day !!

18 winners from 25 races ! 80% ish

4 not in 1st 5 in the betting

michael - Yeah - But !!


What we havn't yet looked at, - are the races which lost - yet contained horses with a "Similar" strike rate - which "Might" - have been expected to win !!

My "Waters" say that we should first - eliminate a few catagories of races !! but it is as yet too early to think about drawing any conclusions !!

Lets let it run - for a bit, then - lets have a look at the stats !

I've done a lot of Statistical analysis in Industry - and I am very wary of small "samples" !!


Thanx for the "Input" - the more - the "Better" !!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

epi -

You at least have - "Grasped the Point" -

All of VDW's early Letters - were concerned with "Narrowing the Field" !!

- Nothing Else !! - !!! -


Anyone who wants to "Piss Around" speculating as to why - he finaly selected a horse from these early suggestions - is wasting his time !!

You have to look at his later postings to find his actual - "Methods" !!

I am now going - to shelter "Under the Sofa" from the expected "Shower of Bricks" !!

Friday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.


F 1:50 f 040- L
F 2:20 d 000- L
F 2;50 d 722- W
F 3:25 e 427- W
F 4:00 f 053- L
F 4:30 c 280- L
F 5:00 f 280- L not in 1st 5
F 5:35 f 578- L only 5 runners
N 1:40 d 000- no form figs to go on
N 2:10 f 534- W
N 2:40 d 000- no form figs to go on
N 3:15 c 312- W
N 3:50 a 102- W
N 4:20 d 032- W
N 4:50 d 555- W
N 5:25 e 943- W
N 5:45 e 734- W
N 6:15 d 122- W
N 6:45 d 000- no form figs to go on
N 7:15 c 671- L
N 7:45 e 000- L
N 8:15 c 231- W
C 6:00 f 352- L not in 1st 5
C 6:30 g 637- L
C 7:00 d 312- W
C 7:30 f 003- L
C 8:00 e 873- L
C 8:30 d 303- W only 5 runners

I think the future analysis will highlight a few points from today ! - still- make no conclusions as yet !

28 races - in total, but 3 did not qualify, as there were no form figures to use !! - so -

13 winners from 25 races !

2 not in 1st 5 in the betting

It turns out that I cant be bothered thinking about "ability" so the experiment was short-lived even by my standards, instead I'm going to look at "true odds" in line with the mootably key phrase "it's all about odds and temperament". I will be looking at all races of class C or higher and working down from the favourite, if there's no bet within VDW's advised first five in the forecast the race will be discarded. Today we get:
B 3:30 Flying Spirit
B 4:00 Flowerdrum
P 2:40 Sahem
P 3:40 Nyramba
P 4:10 Choir Leader
S 4:20 Selvas

I've realised the absurdity of this as all I was doing was looking for "value" in the traditional sense, a concept that I regard as nonsense, so I've further VDWed things by looking at consistency. Only Flying Spirit, Nyramba and Selvas are in the bracket, of these Flying Spirit is the one that least convinces me.

Saturday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.


N 1:00 c 302- W
N 1:40 d 000- no form figs
N 2:15 a 111- L not in 1st 5 in betting
N 2:50 a 673- L
N 3:25 a 111- W only 4 runners
N 4:00 d 333- ? no form figures
N 4:35 d 502- L not in 1st 5
N 5:05 d 632- W
N 2:05 b 412- W
N 2:35 d 352- W
N 3:10 c 548- L not in 1st 5
N 3:40 d 666- W
N 4:15 d 429- L not in 1st 5
N 4:45 b 546- L
N 5:15 d 207- L not in 1st 5
R 2:10 c 282- L
R 2:45 d 444- W
R 3:15 b 001- L
R 3:50 d 624- L
R 4:25 e 333- W
R 4:55 c 581- W only 3 runners - the least consistent of the 3
G 5:20 e 205- L
G 5:50 c 211- W
G 6:20 d 730- L
G 6:55 e 233- W
G 7:30 d 077- L not in 1st 5
G 8:00 e 333- W
B 2:25 f 115- W
B 2:55 e 422- W
B 3:30 e 240- L
B 4:05 d 312- W
B 4:40 e 356- L not in 1st 5
B 5:10 e 336- L
M 5:35 g 677- L
M 6:05 e 522- W
M 6:35 d 184- W only 4 runners
M 7:10 e 352- W only 5 runners
M 7:45 e 321- W only 3 runners
M 8:15 e 186- W

39 races in total but 2 did not qualify due to lack of form figures ! so -

20 winners from 37 races !

7 not in 1st 5 in the betting

Sunday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.


B 2:30 f 233- W
B 3:00 e 912- W
B 3:30 c 192- L not in 1st 5 - (ladies handicap)
B 4:00 a 446- W
B 4:30 e 052- W
B 5:00 d 222- W
P 2:10 d 222- W
P 2:40 c 622- W
P 3:10 e 411- W
P 3:40 a 054- L
P 4:10 c 711- W
P 4:40 d 555- W
P 5:10 f 331- W
S 2:20 f 342- W
S 2:50 e 733- L
S 3:20 d 611- W
S 3:50 d 612- W
S 4:20 c 233- W
S 4:50 e 281- W

Barney will love this !!!

16 Winners from 19 races - and !

only 1 out of the 1st 5 in the betting !!

Ok - so far we have looked at a small sample of 206 races - in statistical terms - that is not a lot !! - but - there is a danger that a very large sample would be too large for the brain to "take in" all in one go !!

I propose to continue for one more week - by which time we should have around 400 results - and then hopefully - start "Messing around" with them !

Anyone else who wants to "Have a go" with the same data - Will be ever so welcome to do so !!

On another - "Subject" - I claim the Honour of "Posting " - the - 15,000th Post - on this Thread !!!



tc

Hi TC

Nearly 85% today

I wont have time to help you analyse the results but i would be interested in what you come up with,

Good luck

Tuppenycat: When you say not in the betting do you mean the winner or that none of the three consistency qualifiers was in the betting? Are you just taking the most consistent from the betting fraction or the most consistent regardless of forecast position? Apologies if you've covered this, it's only in the last couple of days that it's been unsweltering enough to think.
Continuing my own upperclassconsistentintheforecasttrueoddstemperamentalthingy, today there're: N 3:15 First Order and W 7:10 Munaawashat.

epi

Just to recap - I am looking at letter 8 only.

VDW suggests that

1. the first 5/6 in the betting forecast produce a high percentage of winners (86%)

2. consistent horses win a high percentage of races.

He suggests that - if we take the three most consistent horses from the 1st 5/6 in the forcast - then we will have a numerical picture which shows (subject to other considerations) -the good betting propositions.

He says that leaving out sellers and novice handicaps - the method often traps the winner in all races on the card !

so - when I say "not in the betting" - I mean that the Winner did not feature in the 1st 5/6 horses in the betting forcast.

a simple "L" means that the winner came from the 1st 5/6, but was not one of the 3 most consistent of those horses.

a "W" means that the VDW formula succeeded !

Letter 13 appears to argue that consistency qualifiers can lie outside the forcast 5/6 range - but just for now - lets just look at the first proposal - without complicating matters !

JIB,
sometimes when I read this forum,I get bogged down in the serious stuff that goes on,but I laughed and laughed at your post,because it is indeed true.

However I was at Roscommon this evening,and I will give one horse to all forumites to take note of for the future,it is called
EYE ON THE BALL

I have never seen a better looking N.H. horse and it won as it liked.There will be many many pay days from this horse in the future.

PD,

Thank you for not only sharing my sense of humour but also for sharing this horse with us. I have duly placed it, with your notes, on my remind me service.