Bream
Bless you and long may you continue to get fat.

lll
you old scallywag,That must be the reason why you keep coming back.LOL

Epiglotis,

I can only speak for myself, but I do wonder how many back the horses they put up in the tipping competition. I can see it is meant to be a bit of fun, but after the hard work has been put in, how many just have a bet because of that. Personal I have had 10 bets since the start of the year. Could you imagine the reaction if Fulham had won with only 1 or 2 bets over the sequence. I think most of the VDW followers are far more selective, and have fewer bets.

Investor,

I don't quite understand why you are so vitriolic about Johnd. He has explained the tipping competition is just a bit of fun to him. I don't see you having a go at Max, he hasn't a very good record in the competition that doesn't make him any less an achiever. Also why do you keep on about a 80% strike rate? I thought profit was the goal we are looking for. If you think the way to win is the Ajax way good luck. Remember it's not for everyone. I would much prefer to back my selections for place only than go down that route. This is not to say I have anything against Ajax's method, I just think the price's are too short. I like a better return on investment.

Be Lucky

Lee,

Thanks for your reply. You say if the going had been different there would have not been a bet. I don't quite understand that. With PB eliminated because of conditions why wouldn't a horse that could act on the conditions with the other factors in it's favour been selected? If I understand you, it wasn't that ST was out of form, it was the conditions. How many other horses were bypassed because of the conditions? How many hours have people spent looking for other reasons why horse weren't in form, when the reason was the conditions? How many false interruptions of how VDW read the form book to make sense of the examples?

Be Lucky

Mtoto
the reason i am so vitriolic (your words) is for the reason i have said,Johnd BOASTED 10/12 on this thread AFTER THE EVENT,And over the past few months He's slammed into Fulham because he hasn't put selections up on this thread before the off.Like i said in a previous post that to me is hypocritical,I know we all have our own interpretation of the methods and iv'e said before we all think they are right in our own minds.

The point about the tipping challenge is exactly that,It's a challenge if johnd's interpretation of vdw's method is so good that he once boasted 10/12 then why has it dropped so alarmingly,if i enter any kind of comp i want to win,And anybody who says they don't or say it's a bit of fun isn't being truthful with themselves.

You mention Max,For whom i still have a great deal of respect.Although i wish he would come back on the board,To my mind he is by far the most important contributor on any thread i have seen,I don't think to many people will be annoyed with me for saying that.

you also mention ajax's thread,Fair comment you make aswell,The thing is mtoto there are that many different threads on this board making substantial profits that it's very hard to dismiss them,Delboy for instance has taken one of the systems out of systematic betting,And using 5% of his bank doubled it in 2 months,By using the expander plan it's close on 7 grand,How much do you earn at work,You'd be pushed to make 3.5k in a month.

I never thought i would say this,But this thread bores me now iv'e learnt so much from it in the past but now it has become so repetitive that it no longer serves me any purpose,The contributors are very knowlegable people but it's the same stuff over and over again,You must have mentioned Prominent King about 20 times,I wish you and everyone else the very best of luck,But for me the days when i used to look at this thread before any other have long gone.

Investor lost on his WAR HORSE thread today but he found his balls. I`d say he`s had a pretty good day.

lll
I would like to correct you my friend,Iv'e had a pretty good month,And iv'e had balls since birth.be lucky

Investor,

No need to correct me, I never mentioned anything about a month. As for the balls, perhaps you have had them since birth, lets just say today they dropped.

LOL

111
.

INVESTOR
I can't remember rattling you cage recently.
You are, of course, entitled to your opinion, just as I am free to ignore it.
Fulham is perfectly capable of looking after himself, and given that I may have poked a few sticks at him, he usually replies in a balanced and reasoned manner, words which are obviously unfamiliar to you.
Perhaps you are just trying to ingratiate yourself to earn some free sessions on his couch?

Determined

A while ago you put up the list of the top seven, in terms of ability ratings, in Saturday's big chase and asked how many were form horses.

In between times I've had a look at them using the Racing Post website (though, however good the site is, it is a poor substitute for having access to one's own records).

In my view, there is one clear form horse (Mini Sensation), and no less than three for whom cases can be made:

Stormez - for me an unusual case, where a horse which has won its last three races is probably appropriately regarded as out of form, given the class of this race and his rivals;

Iris Bleu - everything depends on how one interprets his last run. I'm inclined to play safe and treat him as form horse;

Shotgun Willy - until recently, I'd have treated him as a form horse, despite the layoff. But in the matter of Copeland, in the race won by Spirit Leader, it has been put to me that there is a difference between months off the track between seasons and not having run for months on end during a season. I suspect, therefore, that SW is best treated as not a form horse.

The other three (Bindaree, Katarino and Supreme Glory), in this race and against the other four runners, I would not see as form horses.

You'll see that I find this race unusually problematic. And as things stand there are clear question marks even about Mini Sensation (including going and weight). So currently this does not look to be a betting race for me, but conditions on the day (especially if the going became heavy), non-runners etc may change that.

Fulham,

Some intersting points there.


remember this time last year when a lot of people thought extra jack a good thing carrying 12-00 in a class b and we were gutted when he was caught over the last. Oh what a difference a year makes

That nichols looks to have a carefully constructed plan for ivanoph,

firstly he puts in a good horse at the wrong trip- ivanoph would be carrying 11-12 but for him, then he runs the horse over hurdles after what he must have though to have been a poor performance against bleu superb and logician when joint 2nd fav.

Barney

Herewith my post on the "Extra Jack" race (pre the off) last year, from another board. I might have drawn the right conclusion, but the tools were much less certain then. You, at least, will appreciate the debt I owe Guest for his posts over the last year!

"Message 598 of 1229

From: "Fulham"
Date: Sat Mar 2, 2002 11:30 am
Subject: 3.00 Doncaster


Hi,

In my view, there are only three horses in the race with the proven, or demonstrated potential, ability to win this 0-140 Handicap Chase:

Extra Jack - won 0-150;

Flying Instructor - won Grade 2; 2 x 0-145;

Red Ark - won 0-150; 0-145.

If any of these runs to their best form, any other runner will have to run substantially its best ever race to win.


Comparing the three ability horses numerically:

Extra Jack con. = 6; ability (all wins) = 90; ability (chase wins only) = 99;

Flying Inst. con. = 14, ability (all wins) = 89; ability (chase wins only) = 105;

Red Ark con. = 10; ability (all wins) = 72; ability (chase wins only) = 92.


Both Extra Jack (whose last run 4th can to an extent be excused - effectively in a 0-154, over a trip probably too sharp), and red Ark are in form. The two ran against each other on 26/4/01, when EJ won by 24l, getting 9lb, though with RA easing down. Today EJ gives 4lb. The two should be much closer, but Extra Jack should confirm the form, especially as the distance today may suit him more than Red Ark.

Both EJ and RA are trying to win off 5lb more OR than either has previously. This contrasts with Flying Instructor, who has won off 15lb more OR (admittedly 3 years ago) and off 10lb more OR less than a year ago. Is FI out of form, or coming into form?

On his penultimate run, FI was probably out-classed by being placed in a Grade A handicap; last time out he was beaten 35l. in what was effectively a 0-134, but was "close up until weakening from 4 out" carrying 11.12. Today he carries 11.4.

Conclusions: no absolutely clear-cut "class/form" horse. Extra Jack should beat Red Ark; Flying Instructor could beat both, if he returns to peak form, but that is a big "if"."

Fulham,

you are not on your own there, he should be given a medal for putting up with us lot, for so long.

FULHAM
Interesting that we broadly agree on the form horses from Determined's list, (Stormez now a non runner).
In the case of Shotgun Willy, he has always been lightly raced, and run well fto, which possibly suggests that he is a horse that loses condition with racing.
Given his trainers statement, after the Scottish Grand National that "We now know what he needs, and we will plan his programme accordingly", it is reasonable to surmise that he has been put away with the Grand National in mind, which would make him a form horse.
His last run was his best performance, from the point of view of prize money and Post Mark rating, and as he would incur no penalty for the National by winning this, he may well be up for it. Not something I would bet on, but by no means a horse to discard lightly.
Has anybody else taken a view on this race?

fulham,johnd,mtoto,statajack,determined,lee,all, not as au fait with the form horse analysis,at present any pointers?....looking at tomorrows race,,,hugo de grez,seems well weighted,,,grundy

JohnD,
Re the 2.10 at Haydock I also agree with you and Fulham re the form horses although I puzzled over Shotgun Willy but came down on the side of not being in form. His form comment for his first run last season over 3F shorter was "outpaced 11th (of 18) 4th and one paced when slightly hampered 3 out". The point you make is a good one although I have noted him entered in races since late January.
Has anyone looked at any other races? In the 1.40 at Haydock I make Goguenard and Red Striker 1st/2nd class form horses and in the 2.40 at Donny I have Red Striker/Toms Prize 1st and 2nd.
It will be interesting to see where he runs Red Striker because I think the easier task is at Donny!

Good Luck All Tomorrow

Graham

Fulham / Johnd / Graham,

Your comments on the form horses in the 2.10 Haydock tomorrow are very much appreciated.

I feel we all agree that Mini Sensation is a form horse.

The same conclusion appears to be the case with Iris Bleu. I must admit to having an element of doubt here, ie - a drop in race class value last time and therefore a downturn the clinical VDW way ? I have taken the view that his running against the class/form See More Business off level weights in a grade A contest was the best race of his career (without been given a hard time) last time and he is therefore a form horse.

Shotgun Willy - without doubt, as Johnd has pointed out runs well fresh and has clearly been trained with the National in mind. That said, there is a massive bonus for a horse who wins both tomorrows race and the National. That added to the fact that the winner tomorrow doesn`t receive a penalty (SOMETHING I DID NOT KNOW) for the National plus he`s been receiving entries since January tells me the trainers intentions are very clear tomorrow. The horse must be out to win. I therefore would be reluctant to leave him out of the equation.

**** clearly a very difficult race already ****

Grundy,

Although I`ve been very active on this thread for sometime now I still haven`t had the time to give the old VDW examples the time they deserve therefore any comments I make with regards IN FORMNESS ETC shouldn`t be taken too seriously.

That said, I will offer a view on Hugo de Grez. Yes he is well weighted if you are referring to the fact that he is carrying much less actual weight in comparison to his last run but so he should given that he is taking a massive step up in class tomorrow.

In short, his form does not stand up in comparison to the opposition he faces tomorrow.

I`m not suggestion he will not win but he`ll have to improve out of all recognition to trouble the in form higher rated ability horses.

Hope I have helped in some way.

Cheers,

Mtoto,

Good evening to you.

I`d be interested in your views on both Gunner Welburn and Keltic Bard tomorrow.

At this early stage both will be probable bets for me.

Cheers,