I didn`t bet in the race so I`m not claiming a winning bet after the event.

Atavus was not a form horse - agreed.

Gateman - ability rating in my opinion couldn`t be taken at face value. Also, his Group 3 win in Ireland doesn`t stand up in comparison.

Desert Alchemy - on the upgrade but to date form not in he book; that said, had to be respected given her place in the market.

Reel Buddy - very consistent early season then given nice break after York. Reached too high in last 2 runs but the Goodwood run when trying to concede 8 lbs to a multiple Group 1 winner. Also, what price would the runner up that day namely Noverre be in todays race ?
The most probable winner for me.

Steenberg - his 2nd at R.Ascot was an improved run and in my opinion he was the one most likely to give RB most to do.

Summary - Reel Buddy looked reasonable good to me but I had stronger opinions in other races hence no bet.



For the record FAYR JAG stood out to me and was my biggest bet of the day.

Also, in my opinion VDW would have highlighted both Takes Tutu and Inchdura as the most likely winners of the 3.35 Newbury.

Any comments.


Anybody have a view on the Geoffrey Freer Stakes, ie - who were the class / form horses ?

Mubtaker has certainly marked his card for the future !

Cheers,

determined,

I had daliapour as the c/f horse but on inspection of the form it didn't do anything for me.

I could not split High pitched and mubtaker because i had him as a good thing in his last race of last season and he turned him over.

good point with RB.how can any horse give weight to ROG surely it should be the other way round?

Swish,

i shall just balls it up!

RB is a 7f horse he was a 7f horse at the end of last year as well, why would he be entered in a group one at 6f and then a group one at 8f then dropped significantly to group three at his ideal distance.

A good 7f horse can be good enough to win a weak 6f race (see kempton) but hardly a group one.

i know that now i would take him at a mile against pretty much anything as well, but would like to see him warm up over 9 or 10 first.

Although Dailiapour had the highest ability rating ( a horse never looses its ability ?) I took the the view that his best days were behind him, ie - he was in my opinion a `form` horse only.

2nd on ability namely P.Punch - distance all wrong.

Murghem - not in the 1st 4 in the f.c. Not a form horse any way in comparison.

Mubtaker - seasonal debut was a `class` run making him first on class/form.

H.Pitched - 2nd on class / form.

*** we agree on the class / form horses and the decision not to bet in my opinion was spot on.

Why ?

Mubtaker was trying a new distance. That alone made his starting price no value whatsoever.

High Pitched - the going had to be a worry which proved accurate.

A watching race that told us plenty.

Cheers,

I do not want to stir up anything but the OR`s came to the fore yesterday, ie -

both Reel Buddy and Mubtaker were clear on the ratings.

both were top on Topspeed also so I believe.

Cheers,

Guest

We'll just have to agree to differ on the Carved Opal/Beau Ranger race: as indeed re Fayr Jag.


Determined

You were doubly unlucky with Fayr Jag. Apart from his mishap in the stalls (part of the intrinsic risk in racing), the race should have been declared void, as the winner was given a flyer by the early opening of his stall gate. A triumph of expediency over adhering to the rules by those in authority. (And not a case of talking through my pocket, as the race cost me nothing.) Hard luck.

Dear all,

Something I have been pondering about for soem time is teh number of horses whose ability figure is hiked by wins in days gone by. I've now come to the conclusion that the best way to counteract this is to ignore any wins from more than 2 yrs ago and concentrate only on the ones since then (last 6 maximum). Similarly I don't include AW wins when talking about Turf races and vice versa. Does this make any sense?

Oldtimer

there will always be overlap, although saying that, this new speed figure guy is far more in line with my thinking than the last one was.

I think the handicapper was bang on in mubtakers race he got the one two.

Sounds a bit like rolling out the red carpet that.LOL

yes it does.

vdw said ability never fades but recent form is better.

sometimes ability does not transfer from sand to turf but ability is ability, its checking the respective form and class in comparison to the other runners that sorts this problem out. If you end up with doubts then why bother?

Fulham,

I was also on Smart Predator at Epsom last year.
That said, racing has a way of levelling itself out.

Take Inchdura yesterday, he never looked like getting a run but he got there in the end which put me in profit.

Budelli would have made it a good day but nearly is not good enough.

Those close finishes have cost me big time this year.



Oldtimer,

A very good point which makes alot of sense but I`ll let the experts comment further.


Barney,

Our old friend Kyllachy appears this week. I see he`s been made the early favourite.


Cheers,

I`ve not evaluated any of todays racing in great detail but Far Lane at Ponty` looks a `probable`.


Got to go as my lady wife is waiting. Day out.

Still, I`ve got the rest of the week all to myself for York.

Have a good day,

have a nice day!!

hello headlines, do you like vdw?

Barney


Did you manage to trace that bit you recalled about maintaining lists of horses to be followed after handicap wins?

On the issue of ability "fading", VDW did indeed comment that F Chester's statement that "a horse's ability fades in due course" was "completely wrong". But either VDW was using the term ability very precisely (in which case he was wrong in his response to Chester, because there is no reason to suppose he (Chester) was using the term in the same way as VDW) or, frankly, he was talking rubbish.

Of course a horse's ability, in terms of its record of wins, cannot fade - and if that was all VDW meant (as implied in his comment "ability cannot eventually fade, this is tantermount [his spelling, not mine] to saying a horse's victory will in due course be regarded as a second and so on down until eventually it will be established as never to have been in the race at all"), no problem.

But a horse's ability in the sense of its capacity to run as fast as it could at its prime will fade with age, as does that of any athlete. Fortunately, most decent Flat horses are either retired, or switch codes, before this becomes unduly evident, but one or two follow the same path as some ageing Premiership footballers, and end up playing in the lower leagues, mere shadows of their former selves.

On the NH, one sometimes finds old chasers, with distinguished win records in years gone by, returning for the odd race and having very high ability ratings compared to their younger competitors. However, whether or not their ability rating should "count" for assessment purposes is usually readily resolved through the "form" element of the "class/form" nexus.

i,m very sorry about fayr jag,really unfortunate that one,i think the evluation was correct especially with the 2nd class form winning the race,no doubt the better versed would have left the hungerford, i could,nt see past reel buddy/steenberg o.k barney and swish have both pointed out something i had already spotted,but like i say there was a factor regarding S i could,nt ignore irrespective of the price,hence a book....mubtaker in my opinion was overpriced at 11/8 i would have gone 4/5 8/11,after looking at the race for some considerable time,the numerical picture finally made my mind up,the full numerical picture that is maybe i lacked temperement but this time i was fortunate and got it right

am i right in assuming you did,nt consider fayr jag c/f just out of interest what did you consider c/f

look before you leap, letter 19

i use that in conjunction with what he told peach in 1995 in racing in my system, page 6.

although i dont have a list as such, well not this year.

particularly para 6,

he (reel buddy) had beaten Continent twice at 6f, he was no mug.

Oldtimer/Fulham - The ability rating only counts for anything if the horse is actually in form. A classic example of a high rated horse, who appeared to be in form, but wasn't in actual fact was Daliapour. Don't let a win fool you into thinking this means a horse is in form. The class/form horse was of course Mubtaker and his form was very good. It was borderline for me and I wouldn't have put anyone off, but I left it alone.

Reel Buddy certainly looked the most likely winner given his level of form, but again it wasn't quite for me. I was perfectly happy with my bet on Fayr Jag right up until the stalls opened and the result only confounded any disappointment as Fayr Jag had given weight and a beating to both horses on the same course before. To be honest I never expected the race to be void as the stewards have a habit of covering up mistakes or faults through some strange reading of the rule book, as witnessed at Epsom last year and at Doncaster when a sprint was clearly run over a wrong distance and allowed to stand. Just some reasons why 100% will never ever happen. Still that was yesterday, roll on York.