cmho

dnip

Hi Guest.

I do agree the c/form horse is the horse with the proven class that is in form. The only thing we disagree on is how to judge class, and form. Which does surprise me as we have both read the same books, but if you ignore what was written I shouldn't be surprised.

Form is what they did, one performance relative to another, are you saying all wins are better than some placings or even runs down the field?
Class is where they performed, the level of ability of the runners.

If I find a race where the class horse is out of form, unless there is a horse of similar class (I do mean very close) I will not take it on. If I was convinced the way you operate was correct, there is no way I would expect a horse with a rating of 19 to win a 90+ race. This brings me on to form, a lot has been said about hidden form. Can I ask you a question? Would you consider BHL to be out of form after his run against WL? He was as you said a very short priced favourite, but running over the wrong course and distance. He was beaten, does that make him out of form? Or is it another case of to many have backed after to much hype, or not taken the hidden factors into account.

With the horses A and B I was trying to show if you followed vdw guide lines. Taking the highest ability (4) then the 3 lowest consistency ratings. It could be taking you away from horse A who could be the true class/form horse in the race. I am afraid I can't see the logic of using a rating that was introduced later and needs a lot of in death form study to sort it out. VDW arrived at PK without it, it couldn't have been one of the other ratings as they had PK top on one and joint on the other.

Investor.

I hope some of the above answers your question, and I have NEVER said at any time speed without form is enough.

Be Lucky

I think that the answer to the question about why would vdw not bet on roushayd FTO is answered in para 4, form -class- evaluation, roushayd ran eight times only reaching his peak after a number of runs.after winning a 641 then he would always be a form horse in context of all 4yr old races

Compare him to kings ride who was very consistent(performance wise) and was considered worthy of support FTO.

VDW was easily able to identify these trainers pecadillos.

Both,however, had been placed to win their respective races.

Hi Barney,


Thanks.

As I said in reply to Investor, the issue of why VDW would not have backed Roushayd fto as a 4yo was not the point I was seeking to raise. Nevertheless both responses have been very informative.

Mtoto - Firstly, I too am confused as to how you agree with some parts of VDWs method but not with the rest. Let me say that when I first became interested in VDW i did have successful periods using the basics of the Roushayd method without recourse to considering the bigger class/form picture. VDW was interested in horses capable of winning races for betting purposes, but also acknowledged that there are many types of horses who often run well without winning either due to being wrongly placed by their trainers or through lack of real resolution.

In Wayward Lads 85 KG race there were 3 form horses as outlined by VDW. Their form was established through evaluation of past class and form and then related to the race in hand. Then after establishing these form horses and being a level weights conditions race, it was simple to establish the class/form horse via the ability/class rating, just as with Prominent King which is another race you disagree with. If Beacon Light was in "form" then as the highest ability rated of the "form" horses he would surely have been the class/form horse ?

Just because VDW didn't reveal all straight away, it doesn't mean he was making it up as he went along. The ability/class factor is obvious really, if you want to know how good a horse roughly is then look at it's winning achievements. The 2 ratings he referred to were either those later used in example races such as Little Owl,etc and also to demonstrate another angle with The Old Fellar (quaintly renamed The Old Fellow by VDW) or perhaps another set based on class/form study?. One of those ratings used later in examples was almost certainly a weightless speed figure adjustment from Raceforms figures and the other was according to my own research based upon the Haig/Superform handicap figures that he mentioned once or twice. But it doesn't matter because for their purposes any good rating will do. It is the balance of class and form that wins the day not handicappers opinions however astute.

Have you ever considered just what Ile De Cyphre actually beat in his race at Ascot just prior to the Old Newton Cup?

Guest

Surely Mtoto's position is clear: he agrees with VDW that the essence of finding winners lies in the class/form nexus, but believes that (assisted by ever better information availability) he has found better ways of judging both "class" and "form". Whether or not he is right is, ultimately, partly an empirical matter, but not one readily open to testing, not least because the identification of the "class/form" horse (whether by VDW's methods or Mtotos) is far from the end of the story.

Guest.

I believe the fundamentals of vdw are 100% correct. I don't believe the ability rating as later explained, is the one vdw used. You ask if BL was in form would he be the c/form horse? For me no, I make PK the one. However for you to get to PK you need him (BL) to be out of form. If he was out of form, why didn't vdw say so? It would not have been anymore controversial than saying he made BL well out of it.

Why is only winning form the true guide to a horses ability? As PK proved you have to go a long way back to find the winning form. When you found it, was it really good enough to suggest he could win the Erin?

I don't think vdw made it up as he went along, but he did say he wouldn't explain his other ratings. I think the new ability rating was to try and help, when people tried to apply his work without a rating for ability. It is better than nothing, and many times gives the same horse as the other ratings.

Re the ONC I think Ile De Cyphre was a hype horse because of what happened at Ascot. I think Vouchsafe was a bigger danger judging by his run after Epsom.

I agree with Fulham finding the c/form horse isn't the end of the story, but it is hell of a good place to start. I would like to say that when I checked the early examples I used only information the would be readily available to vdw.

Be Lucky

eojq

Chuckling My Head Off at that too.

perhaps a new thread is in order.

Mtoto,

vouchsafe tried to bounce back up after collecting, a great big no no and this is indicative of bounce vdw style. If he could have won surely he would have gone straight there. Vouchsafes win would only have enhanced roushayds ratings.VDW style.

IT is interesting that the epsom race produced
produced a number of good things.

there is only, in my opinion, one reason for this. The trainer, who already knows he has a decent animal uses this courses peculiarity as a fitness improver, providing they dont get their legs tangled up of course.

Mtoto,

when one also looks at vouchsafe/first division in the class 50 race, where he was fit, but only class 78. Where as the other two were fto and their respective trainers possibly had other ambitions in mind .What had vouchsafe previously achieved?

mtoto,

in the next race he couldnt be in form he hadnt even beaten a class 78 down in class.

and on and on.

Hi Fulham,

Your post yesterday regarding Roushayd does pose some interesting problems when one tries to assess 'form' and it is a subject that I feel Guest is more qualified than I to answer.

It is clear (IMO) that we must evaluate handicap and pattern race form differently. However, the question of identifying the 'form' horses often leaves us trying to balance form between high value handicap races and lower value group races.

The question of whether Roushayd was a 'form' horse for his first race as a 4YO is further complicated by the fact that it was his first run of the season and as VDW rightly pointed out, he needed a race or two 'to come to the boil'.

Perhaps it would clarify the position further if we 'pretend' that Roushayd's last run as a 3YO was actually his first a 4YO, would we have classed him a 'form' horse for the race in question if that was the scenario. For me, the answer would still be NO, I wouldn't class him as a 'form' horse. Others may come to a different conclusion.

Cheers

surely the fact that he had just won a 641 and then last in 167 highlighted the fact that the trainer was only prepared to put the effort into the horse when he wanted to.

I dont even think it was as obscure as a relativly poor performance, at the end of a long tough season.

Mtoto - Both Prominent King and Beacon Light had excellent speed figures at some point in their careers. Beacon Light had a comparatively higher ability rating, but as VDW clearly said "he was well out of it". Once again, just because VDW didn't spell it all out by saying "he wasn't a form horse" it shouldn't be assumed that is not what he actually mean't as so often was the case with much of his writings. In fact I can only recall him saying 2 horses were not form horses namely BHL and Lucky Vane in the Welsh National.

The problem is, like so many, you don't like the ability rating because you don't actually know how to best utulise it. It had a lot more to it than noting the top 4 ratings coupled with the consistent horses, by some way too.

At the end of the day, there is little I am willing to say further to change your view. It is upto others as to which route they want to take. I would take contention though with the view put forward by Fulham that new ways to measure class/form in horse racing have magically emerged after so many years. In fact I would go as far as saying that the masses of extra ratings and info in the daily press and internet do no more than put too much wood in the picture. Class/Form is actually pretty simple and as always, the simplest ideas work best.

Guest,

it is impossible to change a view that is proven in its wielder's eyes.

VDW pointed this out.

Mtoto is trying to change your view of things!

but as maggsy pointed out there is more than one way to skin a cat.

and racing is made up of opinion

Barney.

A couple of questions.

Why do you say Vouchsafe bounced up? For me all of his last 3 races where the same class 110 110 115 (but the best horse was rated less than 110). How did his win enhance any rating of Roushayd?

You are asking me questions I don't understand, I assume the class 50 refers to the class of the race? What does 78 refer to? if it's someone's ability rating, who's? When I say Vouchsafe is a big danger to Roushayd, this is based on vow opinion. He said V had improved, his words not mine. He also said this win was after a drop in class, but if you look at the opponents was it a drop in class. He finished just behind R in the Epsom race, with the comment eased. He had reversed the form with horses that finished in front of both of them in his next race. Do you not think he would have been a danger?

If you really think a group race even if it is worth less than a hcp is a weaker race, I think you had better hang on to the day job. :-))

Be Lucky

Guest.

No matter what Barney says I would not even try to change your mind about vdw. I know this is strange, and very different from most of the discussions you must have about vdw. It must be easy to put down, or ignore the doubters, and/or explain it to people that will listen in awe.

I want to learn from you, but if I can see a flaw I will say so. I would have thought that would benefit both of us. I can't help but worry when things are assumed, and then taken as gospel. I don't want to be the reason you stop trying to help people, so I will stop posting my views. I do believe that everyone will benefit by using the basic methods, that is why I lay any success I may have at vdw's door.

Be Lucky

Mtoto - There is no reason to stop posting views, certainly not on my account. I have said before that I will only go so far in explainations concerning VDW for obvious reasons.

The flaw you think is there is only a flaw if viewed in isolation. When combined over multiple races, it is anything but a flawed idea.