Mtoto/Mimas - Wintertide was dropped a long way in race class when meeting the 3yo Scotts View. Just as with Failiq versus Billet, the card was marked in more ways than one. To my mind, it is far better to take VDWs advice and make a positive approach to form analysis. Wintertide may have bounced, who knows, but I take such situations as a positive guide rule. I also keep as much as possible to what actually happened. Wintertide ran the best race of his life in a top class handicap and was then dropped in class looking for that first flat win. He came up against an improving 3yo who got the better of him. Which is the better point to take from that race, that Wintertide disappointed or that Scotts View was likely to be winning again ? And it's the same story with Daraism and friends.

Barney mentions the Haydock race that I gave my analysis conclusions on and I'm sure one or two will be wondering how I could have failed to mention the short priced fav and more importantly why did Muwassi have the best balance of class and form ? Consider the above and apply the theory to the race/races.

Chaz/JIB - VDW did mention why he purchased the old handicap book/RFM and it was for the races to come section. That was in the days of longer declaration periods, but it is still a good exercise to study entries for horses that have marked their card. VDW said that the decision to run could prove very interesting and if it tied up with the best balance of class/form then all should be well. The decision not to run though could be just as interesting. The same principles apply today.

Port Morseby in the 5.50 Newmarket,a case of a vdw good thing that was overturned?

Guest, thank you.

Guest.

Does this mean Wintertide was a Roushayd horse for this race at Beverely? Another thing that leaves me puzzled is you say Wintertide's last run gives credence to SV being in form and/or improving. Yet the run does nothing for Wintertide's own ability rating.

Be Lucky

by my calculations this horse is as good if not better than FSF under these circumstances and is far to high price at 10/1 when judged in context of todays race. In my opinion.

Barney, you ll have to take your theodolite back to Ascot.

sometimes you have to wait a while,but they come eventually..sorry barney after the event i know but to my mind,this was a good thing.remember the later the better

Hi Guest,
Fair point I can see what you mean now by Billet being the same as Scotts View with Failiq having similarities to Wintertide. There certainly was a lot in the Roushayd example. Thanks for the pointers much appreciated.
cheers Mimas

good evening...r.e scotts view/muwassi on reading your previous posts,would i be right in thinking that UMISTIM 7.50 san 7aug would have been considered out of form or relatively he was worthy of support.

Mtoto - If you are referring to the improved sfs when raised in class prior to Beverley for Wintertide, then this situation clearly shows why there was more to Roushayd than just improved sfs when raised in class.

The similarities stop at the basics. Yes both Wintertide and Roushayd were next dropped in class, but for starters Roushayd was carrying virtually the same weight as when beaten under 10 lengths giving 9lbs to Billet at Epsom. Roushayd had been consistently a form horse and most important of all Roushayd was the class/form horse come the day both through ability ratings and class evaluation.

What Wintertide did provide was a measuring stick for future reference. The facts are/were that whilst he hadn't won a race on the flat, he had shown a decent level of form without winning in a high class staying race. The ability rating is used to guide us towards those horses that have that extra will to win relative to others concerned.

good afternoon..i get the picture,i,ll not bother you again i wish you good luck for the future

sights of gold,is proving a bit of thorn in the side for chancellor,but did,nt posess the class/ability..

Guest.

Your reply about Wintertide was much as expected. I still can't see how you can take the form from the higher class race, and think it is not good enough to win a 70 E. Then use it to suggest the horse is capable of better by using it as a yard stick.

You say the ability rating is used to judge the will to win, if this is right can you explain the following example.

Horse A wins 4 out of 6 races and gets a rating of 60
Horse B wins 1 out of 20 and can recieve a rating of 100
They have both won a 100 race

I except the rating is only a guide, but I can't see it is very useful when applied. Doesn't it fail if these two horses are running against each other? and/or when you try to use it to gauge the strength of different races.

I have re read the Roushayd method and can again see why so much importance is attached to s/f. It was used in an example to gauge the ABILITY of a horse. When looking at the Old Newton Cup do you agree Vouchsafe doesn't pose a threat to Roushayd? He certainly wasn't the same horse as the one that ran at Epsom.

Be Lucky

Investor

Perhaps another U turn might be in order !

LOL

111
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hello there..at least your talking to me,so that,s not so bad.you know i,m not strictly vdw but the methods are worth pursuing,iv,e got my fingers in many other pies,so there,s no problem on that score,the problem i do have is my mode of communicating,i can,t get into a lot of the threads,because the site is too big for interactive,that,s why i gave up 365 it would have meant starting a new thread after every first page,pain in the a..e anyway enough of my waffle.max,s new thread looks good,anyway gotta go chap,be good if you can,t be good be careful..

Mtoto - The way VDW used the various elements in his method is vital to ensuring that simplistic situations, such as the horse A/B example you outlined, are not taken literally. It would depend entirely on all the other factors combining to tell us which horse would win. The horse rated 100 could be totally out of form or been running against other out of form or low class horses. The permutations are endless and each situation is unique. That is why the method cannot be systemised.

Can I ask, do you disagree that Roushayd was a form horse and also that he was the class/form horse and rated top on ability ? Do you not think it more significant than speed which in my view was used as a guide to fitness and improvement and not just ability/merit ?

Investor - Sorry, I wasn't deliberatley ignoring your question. Umistim was one of the form horses and his recent form was good in context. But Masterful had to be feared with the better form from last year. I didn't bet in the race as they were both dropped in class for one reason.

thanks for the reply,it,s good to communicate with you again.

Guest.

Yes I make Roushayd the class/form horse, I don't see how a horse can have that mantle without being the top on ablility. For me the speed is tied up with the ability, so I use it for ALL the factors, fitness (although I can't see why a s/f guarantees fitness) improvement + class.

Both A and B horses are in form, and consistent. If you take vdw's advice and start with the highest ability you are going to be in trouble as horse A form figures are 114 (the 4th being in a £20,000 race). Horse B form figures are 221.

As vdw said what is form, if not one performance against another, and class is where it happens. Why use a rating that ignores both these elements?

Be Lucky

Mtoto, that last paragraph was a good punch.

Guest/Investor

LOL