So why don't you give us your selections that are clearly "good things" for today ?

Pazuzu

The straightforward answer to your question is that it is unlikely that anyone who has put a great deal of time into trying to understand, and become competent with, quite a complex set of methodologies will want to give the fruits of his or her efforts to a free-loader like you.

Its as likely as a genuine professional punter putting up his or her bets on a board like this for the world to capitalise upon. Get real.

Hello All

Swish - Thanks for the kind words.

All - Had time today and before checking the results I did yesterdays races and thought Manx Magic a good thing. Result? It was royally trounced! Whats even more annoying is that it was beaten by a horse that hadn't won at the distance. It hadn't even been placed at the distance!

This may be something you can help me with. For handicaps generally, I think, running a horse at a distance it's not won at is a bad sign. It's probably a prep race of some kind. However this logic doesn't seem to carry over to non handicaps. Are there any signs that a horse will improve at a new distance?

All the best
hedgehog

Hello Hedgehog

If you look at Barney's thread for the race in question, it goes without saying that I followed you and I think with good reason.

When I saw the race, I wondered what McCoy was about but gave him the benefit of the doubt and presumed he was working to trainer's instructions.
Run the others into the ground, but he run himself into the ground. I am sure they, even the best, make mistakes as often as we do!

regards
Marchwood

Hello Marchwood,

I was unaware of the other thread but I'm glad I failed in such good company.

Looking at the form, maybe we all missed the obvious? Isn't Manx Magic like Beacon Light though in a lesser sense? Too hard, too soon?

I still would not have got Valley Henry though.

All the best
hedgehog

In reply to Fulham re Rifle Brigade. As you know the event at Beverley was an early season 3yo only handicap over 1m 4f. None of the 5 runners had run at that distance , the bottom 3 for reasons which should be obvious. Only the top weight and King Pearl had run that season , both showing very little. Remember because 2yo and 3yo flat horses are usually lightly raced we need to use an additional measure of ability or merit. VDW suggested that speed figures were a good companion to the ability ratings. The initial numerical process highlights Rifle Brigade , Alaskan Prince and Deep Profile as the possibles using that method. The form has to be studied though to determine which one if any rates a decent prospect. To be frank , when you become clear as to what constitutes form there can only be one horse worth looking at in this particular race and it would have been the same had the distance been 1 mile or 10 furlongs. Everything is relative and the question of fitness could have been aimed at the favourite or the bottom weight also.

Another factor to consider which stands out like a sore thumb in Rifle Brigades case relates to the market place. For instance , for some strange reason there was an apparent nationwide gamble on Batswing at Newbury on Friday down for 7/2 early to a skinny 7/4fav. By what criteria could that horse have become favourite ? If you also then consider the following race you will see a genuine favourite with the right credentials and the new distance was almost inconsequential when you evaluate the opposition.

Two cases then but less than a point separated them price wise. Before anyone accuses me of being wise after the event , I ask that you look hard at the 2 Newbury examples and Rifle Brigade and judge for yourself. Everything is there to see in the factual evidence.

Sticking to the facts leads me to Hedgehogs trainer tale which makes some good points , but factually bears many errors with regard to Prominent King winning the Erins Food Champion hurdle at Leopardstown in 1978.

1. Prominent King was not a maiden having won 2 races in 1976 namely a maiden hurdle worth 1,041 pounds at Naas in January followed by the 2,497 Scalp Hurdle at Leopardstown the following month. This gives a rating of 17 or 18 rounded up if you prefer. His other run that season was a fast finishing 3rd in the 9,591 Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham when favourite.
2. His best run the following season was his last when 4th in the 1977 Erins Food Chamion Hurdle over the same course , etc.
3. His high handicap mark was due to his best runs and achievments prior to his 1978 seasonal debut over 2m 4f.
4. Finishing 2nd to Credit Card first time out in 78 was not enough to suggest great things were forthcoming. The presence of the 3rd horse was encouraging though.
5. Of even more interest was his next run in a handicap with 12-7. It was a big ask against Drumgora on those terms but he came out of the race with a lot of merit.
6. All this has to balance though with all the relevant factors(facts) and it is only after considering the other 2 possibles Beacon Light and Mr Kildare does the full picture emerge.
As I say , Hedgehog does hit upon some good points and at least he is trying to unravel the various methods trainers use to bring their horses on.

Marchwood I gather is writing his own analysis and it will be interesting to see what else has been noticed.

Going back to Friday , I notice Manx Magic was put up on another thread as the VDW selection for the 2.30 Novice Chase. Personally I didn’t bet , but the winner was the class/form horse and I am at a loss as to how it was overlooked by those trying to give the method a go. It was one to let run , but the fact remains it was the class/form horse.

Again today (Saturday) there were some good prospects and as requested I can point anyone interested to the Newcastle card where every race went to a form horse and 4 races to the class/form horse.

Hi Guest

Thanks for your helpful comments re Rifle Brigade. There is no doubt in my mind that the 1977 form made him the clear class/form horse at a mile plus, and his positions in the market in the last three races of that year speak volumes.

I agree that the issue of fitness was applicable to others, and there MAY have been a further relevant factor in VDW's mind in thinking he'd be fit enough, namely the trainer's record with first time out 3yos. I say MAY because thus far I've only got info. about Hindley in his last two years as a trainer, but then he had a relatively high strike rate with first time out 3yos - nearly 32% compared with the notional average trainer's 8.5%. I'll need to do more research before I know whether that relatively high rate was unusual, or whether Hindley was, in the late 1970s, known as a handler who was well able to get horses ready to win first time out. If so, the selection becomes more understandable by the minute.

As regards Prominent King, I would value any comment you felt able to make on one of my speculations about his history. As I read it, I believe the trainer was trying to do with Prominent King in the Sweeps Handicap Hurdle on 28 December 1976 exactly what was achieved in the 1978 Erin. Having shown his class in the 1976 Triumph, I think he was given two "prep" races late November/early December 1976 - the first over the wrong distance, the second over the right distance carrying a lot of weight, for neither of which he was "expected" (judging by the market). Then, hopefully fully fit, and certainly fancied, he was intended to win the 1976 Sweeps. On this line of thinking, connections were perhaps unsure why he ran relatively poorly, so tried him again (without backing him) in the 1977 Erin, and were reassured by a decent performance then. They then had the patience to wait another year, get the "prep" races in even more effectively (the first over an even more wrong distance, and the second - over the right distance - carrying even more weight, than in 1976). They then popped him into the 1978 Erin, carrying 7lb less actual weight than a year earlier, knowing that he had an outstanding chance. I've still got some more research to do - to find out what seems to have gone wrong in the 1976 Sweeps - but perhaps I'm reading more into the facts already known than they warrant.

As to Batswing, I am told by normally reliable colleagues that the owner, the tipster Ashley Carr, and at least two other well known tipsters (Melvyn Collier and Mark Daly) gave it as a confident selection, so presumably many would have backed it on that account.

1:40 3/13; 2:15 6/17; 2:50 8/21

But 2:20 8/18. Purely coincidence.

Hedgehog

I feel sure that if you had studied the 2-30 Newbury race in detail, you to would have decided against backing him. The figures are ONLY a guide, you then have to do the hard bit. When this was done, the figures where an illusion, yes he had won a very poor race. Would he have done so if the main danger had stood up? The race was run in a poor time and he only had one to beat. The prize money and grade of the race inflated his ratings. I thought McCoy did the only thing possible, and tried to gallop them into the ground. To test the favourites stamina, and try to kill the finishing kick.
You say you would not have found the winner, but should the fitness rule apply to a horse the has shown it runs well fresh? As for distance why not trust the trainer when a horse is trying a distance for the first time. We trust them when they are targeting a race, some times that is the main reason we back a particular horse in a race.

Happy to see Guest is going into some detail with Prominent King and Rifle Brigade.

Hopefully Marchwood will have put the finishing touches to the analysis in his article. I do hope Guest and Hedgehog haven't spoilt for him by giving to much away before hand.

Regards

Hello All

Guest, Fulham and Mtoto - I think each of you has produced an excellent post. I've printed them off and will read and re-read them. Thank you.

Mtoto - your spot on about my being a bit stuck on recency. I do need to allow for horses that perform best when rested. Thanks.

Guest, Fulham - each of you have opened my eyes. As a person who doesn't have the form books, I'm gratefully you each shared your hard work with the forum. Thanks again.

All - could I ask a favour of anyone with RSB? Could you see how well horses do that have "driven out" or "all out" or "hard ridden" in their form comment and return in 14 days or less? I'd like to know why Beacon Light failed.
I've done a quick count on my small sample and these horses seem to be at a disadvantage.

All the best
hedgehog

Hi Hedgehog

I think that if you look at Beacon Light's last three runs before the Erin, taking particular note of the class of the races and the speed figures achieved, you will see that he was at his peak on Boxing Day (winning a class 74 race "comfortably"), and by 4 February was well and truly "off the boil", taking second place after being "hard driven" in a lower class event (class 39). After that performance, on "heavy", it was very hard to see him coming back a fortnight later and winning the Erin (class 90). Also of some revelance, I think, was the extent to which Beacon Light had been raced that season. The Erin was his sixth race, whereas it was Prominent King's third. Some horses seem to need more racing than others, but in Beacon Light's case I think it was a question of too much racing over too short a period, whereas (if the theorising is right) in Prominent King's it was a careful build up to deliver the horse at his peak for a given target.

Fulham - smells like bullsh*t to me, do you people ever actually back horses or do you just talk about races from 20 years ago ?

By the way, I take exception to being called a freeloader, I've numerous ways of picking winners profitably, none of which have anything to do with a fictional Dutchman.

I take your inability to come up with anything more than twenty years after the race in question as an admission of ineptitude.

Pazuzu

Freeloader = someone who wants something without indicating any intention to contribute. That still seems apposite.

i look forward to reading such well informed posts and heres my tuppence worth

from observation

cosily, easily, cleverly has won and can win again

hard ridden, all out, driven out are at peak fitness and can boil over.

kept on, kept on well, stayed on same pace are approaching peak fitness and can win soon.


prominent and ridden 4 out,hard ridden 3out, challenged strongly 2 out are coming to peak and looking for shorter.

Hello All

Fulham, Barney - Thanks for the help.

Fulham - As I wrote I don't have the relevant form books. I'll have to try and acquire them. Thanks again for your post, your theorising makes good sense to me.

Barney - thanks for your reading of form comments. I'll keep them in mind in future.

The reason I asked about RSB was because I thought riding a horse hard( hard ridden, driven out, all out) and then returning to soon to the racecourse may shown a general pattern of poor performance.

I've still got a bee in my bonnet about Manx Magic. It seemed to me that there was a similarity with Beacon Light. Both having been ridden hard and returning to the course in 14 days.

I haven't re-checked the form yet but I'm sure previous posts are right about Valley Henry.

Thanks again for your help
All the best
hedgehog

Fulham

Not prepared to put up BEFORE the event though, are you ????

Why ???

I think you know.

Dear Pazuzu,
Whoever VDW was, it might have been a pseudonym, SOMEONE wrote all that info and letters to Racing Handicap Book. Personally, I have now posted a few up, the way I see it.
WHATS UP BOYS and NOSHINNAKIN, although, admittedly, NOSHINNAKIN was two races early. I shall put others up when I think they have an outstanding chance. They ain't all going to win, though. There are three ways of learning about racing, basically, hard and long experience, talking to other punters, and looking through old races. However good your ideas are, you can only find out if those ideas have always worked by looking at past races. Having said that the reasons why some of the races are won by certain horses is unsolvable even when you know the result,
Yours
Swish

Pazuru

Yes I know, as I have fully explained in my previous post.

There are other forums, specifically focusing on VDW methodology, some of which have been referred to by others earlier on this thread, where some explore live races. But those are only open to those who can contribute meaningfully as well as take.

Marchwood

I have just read your article on Prominent King.

Unfortunately for me anyway it raises more questions than answers. If we accept that Beacon Light had gone over the top, Why are you, and importantly the trainer so convinced PK is capable of beating an out of form BL or even Decent Fellow. Decent Fellow went into his last race in Ireland with exactly the same profile, a poor run. When there are only 3 runners in a race it's not that hard to finish last if it was a prep race, so how much importance could be put on that result? As you say BL had been dropped in class in his last 2 runs but so was PK. Your article seems to suggest the PK 2nd run was a better result than the BL run, I can't see that. Many trainers target horses for specific races and fail. I would suggest there would have to be a reason the trainer thought Prominent King would beat Beacon Light, even if Beacon Light was at his BEST.

Hedgehog

The sooner the actual weight's of the horses are published the better. While I agree a hard race can take it out of a horse I think that is where the similarity ends with Beacon Light and Manx Magic. Beacon Light had proved it, MM's figures where an illusion.

Pazuza

I now know why you can't get to grips with vdw. If you have trouble reading and understanding Fulham's post. What chance of understanding vdw!!!

Regards