Investor,

If you want to give a bottle go ahead, i like to smack em in the mouth a bit to wake em up. My intent is no less than yours. One thing I have noted in this approach, and i am sure others have, is that the red mist clouds the eyes. LOL.

barmy,
could you please direct me to your last winning horse you posted up,in fairness though,it must have been hard for you cheering your last winner home,wasnt it hard to spot the colours in black and white

tc,nice one

Greg,

gave up a long time ago, its all bent.

barmy,
on a more serious note,what about little edward at sandown,small field specialist,4/6 small field 5f?

it has negatives in its own right that preclude a bet. secondly it wasnt it wasnt in the first two races i looked at on that card.

Oh - good - Which were the first two races that you looked at ??

and - WHY ??

and - Wat did you "Conclude" ???

if - "ANYTHING" ???

Greg - Makes no difference - some will always argue - that - "Black is White" - !!!

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Barney:
Garstonf,
"A mutitude of problems there, some are easily solvable, some not so. experience will however prevent you from backing apparrent good things like Rakti and Attraction, both were only supportable on their debut's".

Forgive me if I misinterpreted the above, but the clear implication is that Attraction was a good thing on her debut?

Epi
As you and I both know, wisdom after the race is a futile pursuit.
However, it is reasonable to point out that Milllenary was the clear class horse, (Whichever way you look at it), had run a reasonable race considering his absence,( His form reads, " Smooth headway 3 out, chall over 1f out, ev chance until ridden and one pace inside final furl), and was likely to improve from that race.
A case could also be made for his co dead heater, but I will leave that to the Fulhams of this world
That does not detract from the fact that Millenary was the class horse in the race, and had also been placed to win. Whether that constitutes a bet is a moot point, but to ignore the signposts could be a mistake.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

Johnd: Thanks for the reply but it still doesn't address the question of how many of the runners had been "placed to win". I've looked through Millenary's career record and find no significant connection between the amount of time it spends off the track and the ocassions on which it wins, it wouldn't have been possible to find it's previous win by looking at the pattern leading up to the win before that. The same can be said of every horse in that race, none of them show a pattern that predicts when they'll win. It seems to me that none of the horses had any valid claim for a bet and I suggest that this is borne out by the co-winner's previous win record.

Well, Friday morning, and time to give the best of three a go. I'm doing it here bc I welcome criticism.

335 Doncaster £19.5K, Listed A1 .

Top 3 in betting forecast (RP).

Distinction 15/8
Compton Bolter 7/2
Delsarte 4/1

Top 3 in Best RPR.
Compton Bolter 130
Distinction 127
Delsarte 125

Top 3 in Prize Money won per race (not strictly VDW).
Delsarte £9.6K
Franklins Gardens £8.8K
Compton Bolter £5.7K

Top 3 Massey ratings
Swift Tango
Compton Bolter
Distinction

Top 3 turfspeed figures
Distinction
Franklins Gardens
Swift Tango

Latest Topspeed
Distinction 110
Compton Bolter 101
Swift Tango 99

Postdata Delsarte
RPR Compton Bolter.

So what do you reckon?

I'd go for a place with Delsarte and Compton (7 runners at the moment), unless available prices are really crap.
Then I could go Franlins ew.

Btw, I haven't been able to work out the "consistency" issue, but I guess Swift Tango comes nearest with "3,1,2".

1.50 don
The one that i wilbe watching closly i his one i Yoshka.Right down the bottom of the weights,But again a 3 y old taking on older horses.

3.00 don Iceman Top 3 cons Top ability Top race class lto.

Started out at Bath over 5f class 45 finished 2nd btn 2.5 lgs with a s/f of 66

15th may Newbury Raised slightly in class 51 over 6f and winning by 2 lgs with a s/f of 86

15th june Ascot Whacked right up in class 406 over 6f and again winning by 0.5 lgs with a whopping s/f of 101.

This is clearly a progressive horse,Has shown improvement everytime when raised in class which can be clearly seen through the s/f's 66,86 and 101.The horse is bread to stay 1 mile 4 f and the ground won't be a problem.Iv'e been scratching my head over this all morning.

So to sum the horse up,He's bread to stay 1 mile 4 f,Progressive,Has good consistent form,Ability,And is clearly capable.But today the horse is enterinthe unknown And he's got to give 5lb to every other horse in the race.Lto the racing comments were "Driven over 1f out stayed on strongly to lead last 75 yds" Like i say he's bread to stay 1 mile 4 and judging by the comments 7 f shouldn't be a problem.But giving 5lb away is a problem."no element of doubt should creep in " a shame but i'll only be watching but i hope you get the gist of the post.Good luck to all who play today.

Thanks investor

Investor,

VDW told us that the best horses come out later in the year over 7f or a mile at one of the top ten tracks. He further went on to explain that it was these early season "sprinters" were "mainly" the ones that disappointed at three as they were unable to get beyond the minimum distance, not relevant today but I thought I would mention it.

The last race was particularly weak relative to todays runners and he was entitled to be fav, he is not today. Oratorio was the best horse in that race and even he was unfancied, probably because he was coming down in trip after showing that he wants further.

Here's betbetter:


10/09/2004 - Doncaster - 3.35,"orderIT-online.com Troy Stakes (Listed Race) (Class A) (3yo+) (1m 4f) (7 Runners)"
Delsarte,52
Distinction,52
Swift Tango,51
Starry Lodge,49
Compton Bolter,46
Franklins Gardens,34
Private Charter,8

And the betbetter top four, in Investor's race:

10/09/2004 - Doncaster - 1.50 - totepool Mallard Stakes (Handicap) (Class B) - (3yo+,0-110) (1m 6f 132yds) (15 Runners)
Fantastic Love 55
High Action 55
Yoshka 50
Sergeant Cecil 45

After saying all that, back in 1967 RED RUM came out over five furlongs in may, and won.

Barney
It was basically an example of the type of things that need to be looked for when evaluating an horses chances,Many many horses have the traits of Iceman,You know that aswell as i do but when they all line up it's betting boots time,Gosden is adamant that the horse needs 7f so don't be too suprised if he wins,I won't be.Basically an example of a good consistent horse that posseses a lot of the factors that are seen in vdw good things.Vdw sd "i like to judge horseflesh by what it has achieved in public and by no other means" it has achieved quite a lot in it's young life as i'm sure you,ll agree And a speed figure of 101 round ascot on the 15th aug over 6f Should tell anybody that this is no donkey.

Barney
How do you see the race panning out.

I,ll let you know about june next year, that is probably when I will be evaluating it.