MTOTO
Once again you have completely missed the point!
It is not a judgement on laying horses, nor on backing odds on shots.
It is, however, a very firm judgement on those who have peddled their endless tripe on this thread, and would still have us believe they have VDW in the palm of their hands, yet stil need to chase ha'pennies in this mannner.
The only fools on this thread are those who have swallowed their guff from the beginning, a prerequisite for joining the private thread I believe.

Johnd

For what it's worth I'm a member of the private thread. I've not 'swallowed their guff' and don't agree on every point, but I am interested in debating the method in a sensible manner, unlike some who post on this board.
I find it tiresome that you choose to split posters into two groups, namely 'VDW Zealots' and 'VDW Haters'. The majority of us are somewhere in the middle, finding VDW's methods and writings useful without thinking that it's a panacea for our punting ills.

Rob

quote:

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Originally posted by johnd:
FULHAM/MTOTO
VDW said "Most of the year has been spent in Cleethorpes, and at the time of writing I have just returned from Alton Towers.
A couple of days after my return I evaluated the Ascot Card, which resulted in the acquisition of funds for my previously arranged day out in Skeggy. I found three 4/1 shots which I thought couldn't win and laid them on Betfair at 1/5, with £100 on each.
Has a certain ring, doesn't it?

---

Hmmm I wonder if Mr Mick Taylor would feel insulted by that remark.

cheers IMP

quote:

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Originally posted by Mtoto:
Johnd,

I can only assume you have nothing to say that will bring the board to life. That's a pity but why do you insist on making yourself look an idiot?


Be Lucky

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I hope not cos idiot posts over on RSUK !

cheers IMP

quote:

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Originally posted by Determined:
Johnd,

Living just down the road from Cleethorpes, I just thought that I`d let you know that I shared a coffee with VDW in a small cafe on the seafront earlier in the week.

He`s looking well all things considered,

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Was that one of the establishments run by Mr Mick Taylor ?

cheers IMP

quote:

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Originally posted by Mtoto:


While I'm in favour of this community spirit I do wonder how far it will be taken. The end result could be interesting. You do all the hard work, you have the experience, I can't be bothered as you will do it all for me. Sounds good for some!!!

Be Lucky

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Come on someone SPELL IT ALL OUT for me I can't be arsed with all this hard work and I'll have to survive on a state pension soon !!!

cheers IMP

thanks for the posting ! - on re - reading it , I detect a very strong positive element in it - which I failed to catch ; first time around ! - hence - a slighty abrasive reply --

I apolOgise !!!

As I said - when first picking up fulams gauntlet , I would have to "Blow the Dust" off my VDW books ! -

I feel that this thread has "Lost its way" and needs "setting back" - "on course".

Honestly - that is what - I am trying to do - I ask you to help !!


Meanwhile - re -

A - "Starting point" for a Discusion - How about the bit that I highlighted in Bold in that post

Most importantly What a horse did in the last 2 furlongs of the race .

I think that "That" is one "element " which points towards a "likely" Horse !!



tc

i know its going back over previous issues but didnt c v baker have a very successful method printed in the racing forum page handicap book based on a platform, van der wheils methods, speed figures, ability,rating but he did not divulge his rating?....my copy is a bit torn otherwise i would have scanned the artical i think he had three letters printed,..one on barnbrook again...dallas...as a bet....and a letter covering part of the nh season..does any one have full copies of these letters..i think they could be useful

re - "text books" !

In my days at school, we had - No - "text books"-

The Teacher gave his lecture and chalked on the "Blackboard" the facts that we needed to "Note and Remember" - and we copied them down into our "Note Books"

I don't see why - the same concept can't be applied in this forum !!

If a member has "info" - then - for Gods Sake - "distribute it" - Ask yourself - Why else are you a Member


"Do as You Would be Done-By "-


and "God Willing", - Something will come back in return !!


tc

tc

In one of your posts today you refer to "What a horse did in the last 2 furlongs of the race", suggesting that it might point towards a "likely" horse.

In the hope of getting a discussion off the ground, why do you think that? Is it simply that it seems reasonable, or do you have evidence from the VDW examples to support the view? If the latter, are you prepared to furnish that evidence?

TC,

I have to say I am happy the thread hasn't lost it's way. The main problem is some don't read what is on the thread. If they read it they can't or won't take the time to try and understand it. There is more than enough on it to take anyone well into the methods if not solve them.

The main problem seems to be very few people can agree on how the finer points work. I think we all agree the class and form are the base. I think most agree that the c/form formula is important. VDW gave us various filters and x checks this is were the main conflict begins. How important are they, can some, or all of them be ignored? Are some more important than others?

Rather than try to work it out and check against the examples, some are trying to grasp on one article and use that to solve the problem. What the horse does in the last 2f, is just one part of a check list we were given. Why do you think this is not taken into account by most people? I think most serious people take it in to account automatically, either when they look at form, or in the capability. It is just one part of the equation, and they don't make a fuss about it.

You must remember we have no way of knowing what happened in the last 2f for a lot of the horses that ran in the first example. Roushayd didn't do much in this department in the race before the ONC. I look at his performance, and it shows to me he was outclassed. Ok, it can tell you a fair amount, but by it's self I don't think it is that important, it is just one cog in the wheel.

I do think Fulham is correct, and the way VDW read/understood form is very important. I just worry it is being made more complicated than it really is. If it's this complicated how are we ever going to come up with the same horse?

Be Lucky

Last two Furlongs

Just a few examples of the above

These little snippets are cherry picked from todays D Mail. Racemail Form.

York 2-35 Stretton appeals at each-way odds
after running on stoutly for a 3.5l 3rd
to Swift Tango. He did not get the best of
passages in a race that was not run to suit him. Won 10/1

York 3-05 Calcutta followed up a Bath (1m)
Win with a fast finishing 3rd to Master
Robbie here yesterday Won7/1

York 4-40Twice Upon a Time missed the kick but
stuck on under pressure to run 2l 2nd to
Smart Hostess at Redcar (5f) , with another slow
starter Chairman Bobby 2l adrift in 6th. Won 12/1,& 2nd.

If any of your probable 3 in a race have remarks like the
above, this will give added confidence in your final selection

Delboy

Typing at the same time

Mtoto

I think the answer to the last question in your post is, in principle, very straightforward - finding the right way, however simple or complicated it may prove to be. Or, in the language of one of VDW's illustrations, not "stopping half way through the project or thinking a part fare takes you the full journey".

The undeniable fact that, at times, even those who have researched the VDW examples and try to work the same way reach different conclusions over whether a horse is a form horse or not, let alone whether it should be a bet or not, seems to me merely to be evidence that not all have "arrived". Indeed, I think it is more than probable that no one is quite there - yet.

Thanks for both your replies - both positive - I hope to reply in a similar manner. -

When the effects of the "Medication" have worn off !!!


tc

You dont need many of those to show a profit do you !!


tc

Late at Night - I Know !! -


Whats your "Holy Grail" ???



Mine is to learn to find a Horse on which I am happy to stick my "House Mortgage" on --


Absolutely confident that it will "WIN"


Who has found a "System/Method" that will do that ???


(Apart from 111s !!)


TC

Delboy,

I think the examples you have given are fair enough. I don't think what the horse does in the last 2f is a starting point though. It may well be part of the finishing touches, after several more of the filters are also present. I made one of the horses a bet today BECAUSE it was backed up by other factors.

Fulham,

While I have to agree with you, I think of those that are nearly there, you will arrive. As I've said, I just think you are making it to complicated, and possibly reading too much into how VDW read form. I am convinced some of these horses you make out of form were never considered in the first place. I keep thinking about the statement 'when you find it you will wonder how you missed it.'

TC,

I think the holy grail you are looking for is even more elusive than trying to solve VDW. There never has been and never will be a horse I would put my mortgage on. There have been a few I couldn't see how they would lose, but some did. I can't go along with some of these short priced horses, I want a good return for my money. At the end of the day it is animals running up a field, anything can go wrong, and does. If I were you I would forget that one, buy some form books, and solve this puzzle. There is plenty of help on this thread.

Be Lucky

MTOTO
So, how a horse performs in the closing stages is 'just a filter'. I would suggest you read that sentence again, and VDW's subsequent remarks.
It is also wrong (IMO) to assume that most of the problems are with the 'fine tuning'.
Most, ( All? ), of the problems are caused by an assumption, in the very early stages, that there is a 'missing link', when VDW made it abundantly clear that there isn't. A misconception of that magnitude cannot be fine tuned, no matter how long you play with it.

"and most important how they performed in the later stages of each race."

Out of all the examples of actual bets
Anybody know how many gained ground or made headway in previous races?

Boozer,

While I agree many were running on at the end of their last race, it's not the place to start. The passage you quote comes at the end of a bigger passage that says these are the things to check AFTER the completing the initial picture. TO CHECK WHAT THE FIGURES SAY. Not a starting point for analyses. I do think it important to follow the sequence of the formula, Consistent form - Ability-etc.

Johnd,

I asked Mr Van der Wheil was there indeed, a missing link?

This is what he told me:

{It's true, not all my secrets were revealed, indeed far from it, but there is certainly enough in what I have written to enable anyone with a reasonable amount of grey matter to consistently find winners}.

{The last in capitals because it was all there although a vital factor, call it the missing link if you like was not deliberately pointed out. It is there for you to see and it was not covered up, but until you approach the problem in the right way the odds are it}

I don't think I mentioned the missing link. The fine tuning I mentioned is finding and using the part that has not been deliberately pointed out, and approaching the problem from the right angle. It may not be called the missing link, but there is little doubt there is a lot of thinking to do to find the answers and solve the puzzle.

Be Lucky