great post swish,
barney i will not be backing in the 2-00 mr
but how can nosam be in form he has not won a hdl race for 5 years?

pushed for time today so may be unable to post on them races,but will make sure i will post up in the next few days a few,but will try today.

Tucacas looked to have all the requirements for a bet today but like Barney I have my concerns with regards both Young American and Rum Pointer.

The latter especially is one I`m keeping a close eye on with the future in mind.



The 2.10 Wetherby is a race I haven`t looked at in any great detail unlike the 1.35 where I have expect Europa to be beaten on 2 counts, ie - the ground and better opposition.

£14k is a prize worth winning and I expect one of the top 3 on ability to win, ie - Extra Jack, Red Striker or Goguenard.

E.Jack will go in the ground, will carry the weight and in my opinion has been readied for this judging by his 2 runs this season.

Red Striker, one has to say looks to be well out of form but his 2 runs this year are better than his form figures suggest. Last year he won the valuable Haydock race coming off similar form figures and I expect an improved performance today.

Another I`m very keen on is the debutant Hirapour in the last at Mkt.Rasen. Not VDW but his flat form will see him win the day.

Cheers,

Barney

Nosam has never won a h'cap hurdle

Do you include the Irish flat form in the ability of Beaver lodge ? if so he has a higher rating.

Formal Bids jockey booking does not inspire confidence (Fehily has ridden this horse also, but has links with CJ Mann so not going to read too much into this)

Looked at Renzo but his last win was a tactical affair and am always a bit wary of these.

Thanks for the reply by the way.

Hors La Loi 111 - a bet subject to the going after I`ve seen the early races.

Extra Jack - a bet

Hirapour - a bet subject to price.


Best Mate and Geos look good but not at the likely prices.

Good luck,

I used the ability ratings as determined from the racing post.

AS you point out they are different.

Just for info, here are some class/form horses running today.

Kempton

1.10 Le Sauvignon
1.45 Hors La Loi III
2.20 Best Mate
2.55 Needwood Lion

Ayr
12.55 The Bajan Bandit
2.00 Zamat

Wetherby
2.45 Edredon Bleu

Wincanton
2.40 Tucacas

Hereford
2.00 Keep Smiling

Leopardstown
1.30 Golden Cross
2.40 Le Coudray

Limerick
1.45 Barrow Drive

For me there are 4 horses worth backing that look like going off at reasonable prices. These are Le Sauvignon, Best Mate, Tucacas and Golden Cross.

Swish - Whilst I clearly said that Baracouda was a class/form only worth backing at better than 4/7 you seem to assume it was a losing bet for me. Congrats though on your confident selection Deanos Beano. Despite being beaten on every ocassion he has met Baracouda he did indeed look a certainty and he has been in tremendous form recently. Surely you must be rich beyond your dreams finding horses like that all the time. Perhaps you could use some of the money to pay someone to read some of the posts on this thread for you and they could point out your misquotes and misunderstanding of what is actually being written by people.

Actually, you could ask JIB, he seems to have plenty of time for literacy and zero for finding winners or even researching a way of doing so.

Besides, I thought you said you "arent" telling us again.

Sorry for the sarcasim, but I really wish people would get their facts straight.

Tucacas is puzzling me, as there are two ways of looking at her past performances, i say she is not proven to give weight away you seem to say she hasnt been beaten unless by horses of higher ability. I will definatly look at this result with some interest later.

I must say I agree 100% with Fulham, and Swish about the prices that some people are prepared to except.

Today, I couldn't except the price offered about Best Mate, and Le Sauvignon. Without trying too hard I can find major doubts about BM, is the course right? Twice I have seen this horse found wanting for a turn of speed. I think he needs a hill to stop the speed merchants in this class. If I'm wrong I don't feel at the price, I have lost anything. I don't make him the c/form horse, and nothing would persude me to back any of Guest's first 3 selections at Kempton.

I haven't found a bet today, but I'm not worried there's always tomorrow (or the next day).

Mr e d are you going to answer my doubt's about Mr Kildare? I would be very interested in your reply. Especially as Guest thinks you have a good knowledge of VDW. Is that because it is very similar to his, possibly even from the same school? As a matter of interest does he agree with you on this.

Be Lucky

No problem greg whenever you have time is fine

EPI

“**** off and die”
Hardly the words of literary genius, in fact quite distasteful and unnecessary
I seem to remember a similar outburst against another member
You appear to have another side to your character EPI that is shall we say unappealing

Having been pulled up myself a couple of times for using the word bullshit
And been told to choose my words carefully after making a trivial sarcastic comment
How strange then that the above has only attracted passing light hearted comments from 2 people

Seems it depends who you are on here doesn’t it?

Guest.

I would like to say my post wasn't meant to be in any way derisory to your understanding of VDW. I know how hard it can be to give selections before the race, and all factors are known. In fact, if I had known the going was soft I may have changed my mind about Best Mate. The only thing that stops the speed horse faster than an uphill finish, is soft going. The price however would have stopped me taking a financial interest, as it would on some of other VDW selections.

JIB.

Even if a posting is sincere. it doesn't excuse abusive language. It is unnecessary, and no excuse is expectable. If Epi doesn't like the VDW thread, he doesn't have to read it, does he?

Be Lucky

Andrew,

Job well done with Beaver Lodge.



My day eventually resulted in no bets primarily due to ground conditions and not obtaining the right prices.


Cheers,

I have to agree with Boozer that there is a definite double standard on this thread and some others on the Gummy Board. It seems that posters such as Epiglotis, Jimmy and certain others are excused their bad manners by some people on the board. Interesting that many of these same excusers also have selective memories about what is actually posted on this VDW thread.

JIB - Yes, I don't know how you approach winner finding, but from the few horses you have selected in between your many overblown essays, I'm sure it has nothing to do with VDW.
My basic point towards Swish was that I have never said speed is useless, but I have echoed VDWs view that speed is no good without form. If that last statement is too difficult to understand or comprehend then I give up.

To put the speed factor in context and at a basic level that Swish continues to think along the lines of, why hasn't this speed figure caused Deanos Beano to beat Baracouda under similiar conditions before?

All in all I think I have imparted enough of my thoughts on VDWs methods. I have shown winners before the race at all manner of prices upto 20/1 and also made mistakes along the way. Ironing out the mistakes is the learning part, but these mistakes are always highlighted by facts in the form book before the event. The trick is being very thorough and methodical and not to ignore the warning signs. For example, Le Sauvignon had only won a small race after a very long layoff. Fine, if he had been racing last season and winning or running well, but he hadn't. The same thing went against Looks Like Trouble in last years Gold Cup, a point I should have been more on the ball with. That is my fault though and not the methods. Similiar amateurish mistakes were made with a once raced juvenile (terrible risk to take on 1 run only) and a horse with topweight against better oposition in a series qualifier. Qualifiers are a nightmare in the main chocked full with horses only there for one purpose - to qualify for the final.

2 horses I should have taken today were Edredon Bleu and The Bajan Bandit, but again that is my mistake and not the methods.

Mtoto - In respect of Best Mate and VDW, Florida Pearl was not a form horse today. Best Mate was and had the highest class rating. He was super consistent and had the best form including on the track against Florida Pearl when that horse was the class/form runner and BM was making it's first attempt beyond 2m 4f. No one can say he did anything but improve to then win the Gold Cup over even further. He has won on all types of tracks and even after reviewing the pre race facts again (as I always do win or lose), he still rated as a genuine odds on shot. My other bets did not and the odds were bucked by me, badly in the case of Tucacas and Golden cross.

I don't know your full approach Mtoto, but I am puzzled as to how you or Swish measure class. VDW told us how to roughly gauge a horses class and the class of race. Anyone having a really good logical think about it should be able to see how further use of these tools could be made in order to gauge form. VDW never said they were foolproof, but used correctly they are very good. However, because of the many factors involved, it is easy to come to conclusions without checking everything properly and this always spells doom.

As I say, I have gone as far as I am willing to go on the explaination front. This is no snub to those who are genuinely interested in finding out more about VDWs methods. However, I have grown bored, to be blunt, with arguing the case for VDW with the same doubters for well over a year now. Those who think there is something in the methods will find the answers if they put their minds to it and do the research. Those who are not interested hold no real interest to me personally and I have no need to justify anything to them.

Good luck to all in any event though, because there is no bad feeling intended. It is time for me to call it a day, but I will look in to see if those researching are making any progress.

Enjoy the rest of Christmas and have a prosperous New Year.

Guest,

I'm sure I won't be the only one who is sorry to see your calling it a day.I think you've been surprisingly patient,tolerant and generous on this thread.

I might have a long way to go to reach a full understanding of VDW's methods,but there's no question that your thoughts have been a big help to me.I think your right that for learners like myself the answers are in doing more of our own research.

I wish the best of luck for you in the future.

Guest

"Qualifiers are a nightmare in the main chocked full with horses only there for one purpose - to qualify for the final."

Good point, but looking at it another way it can give good betting opportunities as a lot of runners can somtimes be eliminated leaving just the "form" horses.

In case you don't post again, all the very best - you have helped me a lot.