Determined the ability ratings for the erin were Beacon light 47, Prominent king 17, and Mr kildare 10, As re- Hors la loi tomorrow im not sure if he can do it on the course in relation to the opposition, a race for a book with jonjo`s or leave well alone, the choice is yours, best of luck determined whatever you decide to do .

Walter,

A big thank you for the ability ratings. Could I be cheeky and ask for the ratings for the whole field ( if possible ).

I`m presently trying to obtain the following formbooks if anybody can help,

1975/76 1976/77 1980/81 1981/82 NH.

1976 1977 Flat.


With regards the Xmas Hurdle - provided the going doesn`t go very soft I will be backing HLL tomorrow.

I.Falcon is a rapidly improving horse but as yet he hasn`t beaten a true class act like HLL ( in my opinion ).

Thanks again,

Determined the three probables are the only ability ratings i have m8 sorry, as for the christmas hurdle far be it from me to point out a form line but suggest you take a look at marble arch in relation to jonjo`s & the hors, not cast in iron i know but enough for doubts maybe .

Investor

No, the reason I couldn't eliminate Royal Auclair (and thought him a very possible winner) was that he was the clear c/f, had a very progressive profile and was miles ahead of Poliantas on the ability rating. Weight issues precluded backing RA, but RA's presence in the field precluded me from backing P.


Determined

In addition to those you've got: Ballymountain Girl 14, Banswara 7, Beparoejoe 5, Bugle Beads 0, Cooch Behar 22, Decent Fellow 38, Drumgora 13, Master Monday 39, Meladon 41, Monksfield 23, Multiple 16, Silvine 5 and Troyswood 14.

Fulham,

A big thank you for the ratings.


Walter,

I`ll have another look at the Marble Arch position in the morning as its past my bedtime.

Need my beauty sleep.

Cheers,

be positive.

It does not look as if investor is going to answer your question. I wonder why that is? Could it be that he is too modest? A few months ago on another thread he posted a list of bets he had made (after the event as usual), without the benefit of VDW, which showed his strike rate was 80% and he claimed that most months his bank doubled.
Now he claims that since he has mastered VDW his strike rate has improved and his bank is growing even more. In other words his strike rate is greater than the mythical 80% and his bank is going through the roof.
Look out Guest, and others, investor is doing far better than any of you.
And by the way John, my magic goose laid three golden eggs today.

vdw FAN NO.1
Hey everyone have I got a winner for you!!!!
vdw fan No2
Whats that then?
BARRACOUDA
It's won ten on trot! Beat that for consistensy rating!!!!!

All in very high class races, I havn't added them all up but obviously it's ability rating is MASSIVE.
Blimey that's the best vdw ratings I have ever seen. I want to put my house on it!(or my flat)
What price is it?
Well it is 4-11 so it MUST BE ABSOLUTELY NAILED (by the way it is the highest value race of the day exactly as good old VDW said).
What a stonking bet let's get on it!!

NON VDW FAN:
Wait a minute chaps, DEANOS BEANO has a speed figure of 176, whilst B has only 148. Careful now.

VDW FAN:
Speed figures don't count .

NON VDW FAN:
DEANOS BEANO has come second in this race 3 times.

VDW FAN:
Form doesn't count either.

NON VDW FAN:
Well no matter what VDW says it must be better taking a chance with a 14-1 with that form and figures. Let's face it, every one knows you can't win in long run backing 4-11 shots.

VDW FAN:
Don't be stupid, VDW is king, end of story.
Anyway Guest says so. What more do you need to know?
I have just drawn £55000 life savings out of my Building Society so i can make an easy £20000. By its a piece of p*** this game.

DEANOS BEANO WINS AT 14-1!

VDW FANS UNITED (after the event)
"Actually if we look at the race again with hindsight DEANOS BEANO was the class/form horse of the race after all and if you compare it to PROMINENT KING or one of those others we always go on about, its obvious it was the winner."

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA !

I love it me! You are creating enjoyment for myself, and no doubt many others, all over the world.
Merry Christmas
Swish

Walter,

Taking Marble Arch`s running against I.Falcon at Newcastle and then looking at MA running against `Hors` at Cheltenham does I agree put doubts in ones mind.

It is clear MA didn`t run his race at Newcastle ( compare his run there to that at Cheltenham last time using The French Furze )but that doesn`t take anything away from I.Falcon`s win that day.

Beaten 14 x lgths by IF and receiving weight compared to the 3 x lgths by `Hors` at levels does tend to favour IF.

Formlines aside, the acheivements of IF to date do not compare with those of `Hors` although I accept after tomorrow the picture maybe different.

IF whilst clearly marking his card last time is up in class today against the better horses and cannot be a bet for me.

Question is, do I consider IF enough of a danger to leave my money in my pocket.

Many may choose to leave the race alone but if 3/1 is availble and the going stays good/soft then I`ll still be playing on `Hors`.

*** will be interesting to see how close MA is to IF today = alot closer ***

Cheers,

I`ve just wasted my time posting all that rubbish, ie -

this racing game is easy

`Hors` has a best timefigure of 152 compared to I.Falcon`s 134.

No contest.

Any comments Swish !

Cheers,

I quite like you,
You havbe never pretended to be anything you aren,t. Bless you for it.

However you have fallen into Barney's trap of you can't be bothered to name the time and racecourse where the race is.

Why the hell should i bother answering you when you can't be bothered naming the race?

When you decide you can make the effort I shall make the effort to help you,
Yours
Swish

By the way you had better hurry up, because i have been up all night and I am going to bed within the next 30 minutes
Swish

Will always listen to what you have to say.

MA = Marble Arch
`Hors` = Hors La Loi 111
IF = Intersky Falcon

The race is the 1.45 Kempton today.

Cheers,

I always like to read what this man has to say.

I note today he has selected the 3 x class/form horse namely Le Sauvignon, Hors La Loi and Best Mate.

Fellow posters - have we found Guest`s true identity ?

Investor

I've always found that accentuating the negatives, and being ultra-cautious about value, mean I make more money. (And VDW himself told us that he backed only 20% of the horses he thought were likely to win.)

Thus, for example, I won't be backing c/fs Le Sauvignon or Best Mate in the 1.10 and 2.20 Kem. (the one because of accentuated negatives, the other because in my view there is no value in the price). If, as is probable, both win, I will of course be open to the "be positive" criticism, but I'll be no worse off financially, and ready to back what I regard as solid c/fs at better prices as opportunities arise (which they may well do today).

In this connection, and recognising that neither Le Sauvignon or Best Mate is likely to be odds on, Swish posted a piece on odds on horses on the general thread yesterday that you and others should read if you haven't done so. It precisely reflects my own view about the mountain faced by anyone backing very short-priced horses (which, at the Post forecast, and in the context of their respective races, I see LS and BM as being). By taking the "positive" attitude, plenty of such horses will be found by applying VDW's approach, and a good percentage will win. But enough to make a worthwhile long term profit? Not in my own experience, or on the evidence of this thread. (Unless one is prepared to use a recovery staking plan, for which I am far too cautious or, as you will no doubt think, negative.) But by confining one's attention to clear VDW selections available at better prices, it is encouraging to discover how profitable a strike rate in the 40 and 50 percents can be, even to what some might regard as modest stakes.

Does anybody know if EB runs at Wetherby.

Judging by the market move for Geos I suspect EB is a non runner.

Ceefax, etc at present do not seem to confirm one way or another.

I get geos c/f, even if he runs.

I have one definite bet so far today and that is Beaver Lodge in the 2.00 at Market Rasen.

The following few horses look interesting, does anyone have more thoughts on these:

2.10 Wetherby LITTLE SPORT 1st time in a h'cap, looks to be progressing nicely and likes a trip.

2.40 Wincanton TUCACAS looks clear c/f to me and has won a h'cap with this weight before.

2.00 Ayr STAR JACK looks an obvious one, but has no hurdle form in UK and is carrying more weight than he has ever won with. STORMY LORD will set a
good pace and may hold on for a place.

3.30 Kempton BARCELONA has an inflated ability rating for a weakly contested nov hdle win. Did quite well over CD on 26/10. Slow run race over 2m next time wouldn't of suited. Nowhere LTO after apprentice ridden with a record of 0 - 17.
Doesn't want ground any softer. Blinkers back on today ?

from a vdw point of view there are two higher ability horses in form

nosam 48
formal bid 43

besides these two, another avenue of exploration shows renzo to have a good chance.

I also had a very good look at tucacas, he has proven himself able to give weight away, but not to horses with the ability of young american or rum pointer.

sorry to be so negative.

[This message was edited by Barney on December 26, 2002 at 11:04 AM.]