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Jul 29, 2010, 2:02am

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THE ORIGINAL & OFFICIAL KIMMYPOPSRACING. Est. 2006. :: THE ORIGINAL & OFFICIAL KIMMYPOPSRACING. Est. 2006. :: Archive. :: Green Lights
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #30 on Apr 21, 2010, 11:01pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

Apr 21, 2010, 8:40pm, Larry wrote:
In the GC i reckoned 3 horses could beat Denman, they were Kauto Star, Imperial Commander & Cooldine, 1 fell,1 did, 1 didnt, as for Denman being finished may have been an over reaction but i honestly dont think Denman will ever beat Kauto Star, Imperial Commander or Cooldine, & Carruthers, Planet of Sound, Joncol will also give him a fight & in top class chases he will always meet 1 of these. He was a great champion & many a horse went on too long look how tragically Best Mates career ended, in all honesty i'd kill for the prize money Denman will get for finishing 2nd or 3rd in top class chases, but do Paul Barber & Harry Findlay need that money all the while risking making Denman another tragic statistic. Remember BC he was being touted for the Grand & Scottish Nationals which although both are loved by the nation are really top class handicaps. WoA is 11 & was retired(gloriously) today, no one gave him a chance in any grade 1 races this year against the younger guns, when Denman next competes in grade 1's he will be 11, he will also be better off plodding round in long distance top class hcps looking after his "dodgy" heart.
After writing this piece i sincerely hope i'm proved wrong but i dont think i will be.


Hi Larry,

Good piece. I find myself agreeing with you. Although I think Denman is, still, one of the top chasers, at 10 we have to be thinking about putting him out in a field with a barrel of apples and a nice mare or two shortly. Mind you, as he's been gelded, he will have forgotten what to do with them. The mares that is. Not the apples. I do hope they retire him now. And Kauto Star. 9 or 10 is enough.


Apr 21, 2010, 8:40pm, Larry wrote:
BC please please please keep up the good work you are 1 of the few people on the net that i sit up & take notice of, & i am glad that i dont always agree with you but i do always respect your opinion.
all the best
Larry


I turned around just then to see if there was someone called 'BC' standing behind me! I think you are getting me confused with EC. Or KP. Or JIB. Or Monster. Thanks for the compliment, but there are plenty smarter than me. Actually, I'm trying to think of someone who isn't.

There is a contributor to this forum who you'd do well to talk form with, and that's Walter Pidgeon. You'll find him lurking in the Performances topic. He is seriously good. I recon there's a few others on here too who'd be great to learn things from if they would be so inclined, (e.g. KP and NFP).

And Larry - from what I've read, I'd say you know your vdwonions!

BC :)
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #31 on Apr 23, 2010, 12:20pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Banger,535,Tri Nations £63 @ 11/10
& Dr Valentine £25 @ 4/1
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #32 on Apr 23, 2010, 9:51pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Banger,535,Tri Nations £63 @ 11/10 W +44.30
& Dr Valentine £25 @ 4/1 2nd



Summary:
Races 19, Wins 13, SR 68%, Bank £930.91
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #33 on Apr 24, 2010, 4:21pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Haydock,805,Deauville Post £93 @ 2/5
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #34 on Apr 24, 2010, 4:25pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Hiya M8 was expecting you to put up PACO BOY
btw 68% in my book is excellent best of luck with Deauville Post
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #35 on Apr 24, 2010, 4:36pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

Apr 24, 2010, 4:25pm, Larry wrote:
Hiya M8 was expecting you to put up PACO BOY
btw 68% in my book is excellent best of luck with Deauville Post
Larry


Did think about it. On the whole, I like them to have had a recent run (although I do break that from time-to-time).

BC :)
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"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #36 on Apr 24, 2010, 8:15pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Haydock,805,Deauville Post £93 @ 2/5 W 4/9 best odds paid +41.33

To be honest, I regretted putting this one up. Got away with it today. :)



Summary:
Races 20, Wins 14, SR 70%, Bank £972.24
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"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #37 on Apr 25, 2010, 1:36pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Gowran Park,215,Baglioni £97 @ 8/15

I was hoping for another one today, Ludlow,200,Marodima, but now Slip has been with drawn, the price is 1/8. even I have my limits !! :)
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"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #38 on Apr 25, 2010, 3:26pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Gowran Park,215,Baglioni £97 @ 8/15 L

It's one step forward, one step backwards at the moment. I shall be reviewing this at the end of June and the end of August. If it isn't making progress at these points, I shall call it a day.



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Races 21, Wins 14, SR 67%, Bank £875.24
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #39 on Apr 25, 2010, 3:49pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
I've had a quick tot up, and since I started this in September (not backed until 1st Jan) I have had 31 win from 44, which is 70%.

Disappointingly, this would only be roughly breaking even. But it was going so well. Two sets of 8/10 and a run of 13 consecutive winners doesn't come easily. However, since Dunguib lost at Cheltenham, the wheels, whilst not coming off, have certainly come loose.

From 1st Jan yp to Dunguib, I had 9/11 - 82% and in profit.
Since and including Dunguib, I've had 5/10 - 50% and a loss.

So am I doing anything different? Did I get overly confident? (i.e old big 'ed syndrome). I don't think so. If I look at the 5 horse list that have let me down, it is an impressive bunch:

Dunguib
Master Minded
Kauto Star
Denman
and today's hot pot, Baglioni.

So perhaps this post is an over-reaction, and normal service will soon be resumed.
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #40 on Apr 25, 2010, 4:00pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Why are they "Green Lights"?

As a little reminder to myself:


  • I am looking for horses that can't lose - I can discard each rival when compared to the selection.
  • I am looking for horses that are going down in class (even if they don't always look like they are).
  • There are no potential lions lurking in the bushes (that is, higher class horses apparently not in form, or unexposed horses that could be anything)
  • I have checked distance, going, course, weights, jockey, trainer.


Strictly speaking, today's horse did fail on point 3, with unexposed horses in the field, although I did consider the point beforehand, and felt that the selection had shown enough.

BC :)
« Last Edit: Apr 26, 2010, 2:10am by BC »Report to Mod - Link to Post - Back to Top  IP: 86.148.168.109
Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #41 on May 15, 2010, 2:01pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Still on sabbatical, but just looked at the one race and agree with Larry. It has to be done!

Newbury,305,Paco Boy £62.50 @ 5/6 and Zacinto £25.50 @ 7/2
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"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #42 on May 15, 2010, 2:55pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
best of luck m8 was away this week so aftertiming but Sariska would have been a big positive for me
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #43 on May 15, 2010, 3:08pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
never in doubt pity i sat on the fence
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #44 on May 16, 2010, 12:49am »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
No Larry, we did the right thing. It's always easy after the race. :D

Newbury,305,Paco Boy W +26.59



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Races 22, Wins 15, SR 68%, Bank £901.83
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Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #45 on May 22, 2010, 2:42pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Just to keep my hand in, I had a quick look and...

Newbury,740,Strictly Dancing £90 @10/11
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Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #46 on May 22, 2010, 4:07pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Have this one myself we obviously sing from the same hymnsheet
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #47 on May 22, 2010, 5:49pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

May 22, 2010, 4:07pm, Larry wrote:
Have this one myself we obviously sing from the same hymnsheet


Ready Larry? Here we go...

"Blue is the colour... "



LOL ;D
« Last Edit: May 22, 2010, 5:50pm by BC »Report to Mod - Link to Post - Back to Top  IP: 217.43.169.48
Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #48 on May 22, 2010, 8:01pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Newbury,740,Strictly Dancing W +81.82



Summary:
Races 23, Wins 16, SR 70%, Bank £983.65
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Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #49 on May 22, 2010, 8:45pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
If i ever get caught singing that song somebody please shoot me
well done m8
all the best
Larry
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #50 on May 27, 2010, 6:33pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
My attention has been drawn to...
Sandown,635,Cape Rio £66 @1/1 and Dinkum Diamond £32 @ 5/2 (preference for the former)
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Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #51 on May 27, 2010, 9:33pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Sandown,635,Cape Rio £66 @1/1 3rd
and Dinkum Diamond £32 @ 5/2 W +14.00 net



Summary:
Races 24, Wins 17, SR 71%, Bank £997.65



I calculated the stakes on DD at 3/1 and didn't have time to re-adjust, especially as I expected CTR to win. In the end, it was hardly worth the risk!

Even after all this time, I really am not very good at this betting lark! ;D
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Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #52 on Jun 15, 2010, 9:29am »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Out of hibernation for just the one race.

Ascot,230,Goldikova £50 @ 7/4, Rip Van Winkle £27 @ 4/1
(and although I don't think he's quite in the class of these two, I really like the horse, so have taken a cover on Paco Boy £24 @ 10/3)

The total of the above is £101 at approximate odds of 1/3. But to me, 1/3 rates a good deal considering the make-up of the race.
« Last Edit: Jun 15, 2010, 9:32am by BC »Report to Mod - Link to Post - Back to Top  IP: 86.148.168.215
Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
BC
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #53 on Jun 15, 2010, 3:14pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Goldikova W, Rip Van Winle L, Paco Boy 2
Seems I had 23 on Paco Boy, not 24. So net profit was £37.50

If there was a race like this each week, we'd have a 99% SR and a big smile. :)



Summary:
Races 25, Wins 18, SR 72%, Bank £1,035.15
Report to Mod - Link to Post - Back to Top  IP: 86.148.168.215
Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
BC
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #54 on Jun 17, 2010, 8:29pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Back in credit for the first time since Cheltenham!

So I thought I'd celebrate by posting a green light on the green lights thread! (found by Banger :D )

[image]

I know how to live eh? ;D
« Last Edit: Jun 17, 2010, 8:29pm by BC »Report to Mod - Link to Post - Back to Top  IP: 86.148.168.215
Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
"Some stick out like a SORE THUMB and it is these which should have support"
"We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" cd
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20
Larry
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Re: Green Lights
« Reply #55 on Jun 17, 2010, 10:06pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Well done m8 fingers crossed for more success
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