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Apr 2, 2010, 8:52pm

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mark eaton racing site. :: Main :: Van Der Wheil :: What Is the Second Numerical picture
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Pitmatic
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #270 on Feb 8, 2009, 12:58pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
GeorgeJohns

I'm very interested in the notion of VDW's probables figures. I have to say that I was happy to take it that the figures quoted in the Prominent King example were related to consistency and were therefore "misprints".

Could I ask you some questions in relation to what you have identified?

a) What is the lowest probable figure that can be achieved - is it 3?

b) Would a probable figure of 3 be a "maximum" rating in that sense?

c) Does the probable probable figure have any real value in terms of the numerical value (as opposed to reducing the consistent horses down to 3, where needed) i.e. If a runner has a probable figure of 3 (and this is the maximum rating) would it mean anything in terms race analysis, in comparison to 2 other probables who have figures of say 5 & 6)?

Hope you feel able to answer these questions, as I would find it very helpful.
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georgejohns
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #271 on Feb 8, 2009, 1:35pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Pitmatic

The probables figures are like the consistency ones - they have no intrinsic value except as part of the elimination process. In that elimination process lowest is best and 2 is the lowest under normal circumstances.
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Pitmatic
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #272 on Feb 8, 2009, 2:02pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
GJ

Many thanks for that - your answer is much appreciated. The form books will be out this week!!!
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ec
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #273 on Feb 8, 2009, 3:02pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

Feb 8, 2009, 12:58pm, Pitmatic wrote:
GeorgeJohns

I'm very interested in the notion of VDW's probables figures. I have to say that I was happy to take it that the figures quoted in the Prominent King example were related to consistency and were therefore "misprints".

Could I ask you some questions in relation to what you have identified?

a) What is the lowest probable figure that can be achieved - is it 3?

b) Would a probable figure of 3 be a "maximum" rating in that sense?

c) Does the probable probable figure have any real value in terms of the numerical value (as opposed to reducing the consistent horses down to 3, where needed) i.e. If a runner has a probable figure of 3 (and this is the maximum rating) would it mean anything in terms race analysis, in comparison to 2 other probables who have figures of say 5 & 6)?

Hope you feel able to answer these questions, as I would find it very helpful.


I was going alright there til I hit the double probable bit, its all too hard for me is this ???


you guys must geniuses to follow all this
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georgejohns
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #274 on Feb 8, 2009, 3:51pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
EC

I think the double probable was probably a mistake. My response was based on that assumption. If it wasn't, I have probably mis-understood what Pitmatic was asking.
« Last Edit: Feb 8, 2009, 3:52pm by georgejohns »Link to Post - Back to Top  IP: 82.69.9.100
Pitmatic
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #275 on Feb 8, 2009, 7:28pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
EC

The probability of me having unintentionally inserted another probable, is probably very high. In all probability I probably meant to only say probable and not probable probable - unless my subconscious took over for a split second.

I'll probably get the form books out later in the week to begin to get to grips with these probables.

Hope this has cleared things up.

:D
« Last Edit: Feb 8, 2009, 7:29pm by Pitmatic »Link to Post - Back to Top  IP: 92.13.149.243
Arkle55
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #276 on Feb 8, 2009, 7:40pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
PROBABLY
The best form books in the world.
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #277 on Feb 8, 2009, 7:43pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

Feb 8, 2009, 7:28pm, Pitmatic wrote:
Hope this has cleared things up.


Probably. :-X
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ec
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #278 on Feb 8, 2009, 8:53pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

Feb 8, 2009, 7:28pm, Pitmatic wrote:
EC

The probability of me having unintentionally inserted another probable, is probably very high. In all probability I probably meant to only say probable and not probable probable - unless my subconscious took over for a split second.

I'll probably get the form books out later in the week to begin to get to grips with these probables.

Hope this has cleared things up.

:D


much clearer thanks ;D
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monster
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #279 on Feb 8, 2009, 10:53pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

Feb 8, 2009, 8:53pm, ec wrote:

Feb 8, 2009, 7:28pm, Pitmatic wrote:
EC

The probability of me having unintentionally inserted another probable, is probably very high. In all probability I probably meant to only say probable and not probable probable - unless my subconscious took over for a split second.

I'll probably get the form books out later in the week to begin to get to grips with these probables.

Hope this has cleared things up.

:D


much clearer thanks ;D


We may have to run it through the Probability Device to make sure that it comforms to the numerical picture of other probables. ::)

Good Luck

Monster
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ec
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #280 on Feb 8, 2009, 11:04pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
probably won't
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deano
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #281 on Feb 8, 2009, 11:22pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

Now Me thinks some of you are probable taking the urine .
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ec
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #282 on Feb 8, 2009, 11:37pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
aye you probably right

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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #283 on Feb 9, 2009, 12:28am »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Do trainers use any of this stuff?.
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[image] 2009 Tipping Challenge Winner 11,449.71 pts profit.... 10 months played.
Arkle55
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #284 on Feb 9, 2009, 1:04am »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
WALTER
You guessed it, PROBABLY
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #285 on Feb 9, 2009, 1:55pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

Feb 9, 2009, 1:04am, Arkle55 wrote:
WALTER
You guessed it, PROBABLY


[image]

I thought you'd probably say that Arkle!! ;D
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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #286 on Feb 9, 2009, 2:23pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Seriously though trainers or someone employed to do it for them have to have tools at hand to see where they stand once targets are sorted and race day approaches.
If they worked it themselves you would imagine it would need to be fairly straight forward as they are generally very busy.
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monster
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #287 on Feb 9, 2009, 4:07pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]

Feb 9, 2009, 2:23pm, Walter Pidgeon wrote:
Seriously though trainers or someone employed to do it for them have to have tools at hand to see where they stand once targets are sorted and race day approaches.
If they worked it themselves you would imagine it would need to be fairly straight forward as they are generally very busy.


Roy Hawkins worked for Martin Pipe as a Form advisor [i]" Backing or running horses in their own class, or preferably below it, dramiticlly reduces the odds against defeat."[/i

Good Luck

Monster
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Arkle55
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #288 on Feb 9, 2009, 6:04pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Another booklet.
The Gambler And Sensible Betting By Roy Hawkins, Edited By Tony Peach .Is this booklet any good/ worth a read.
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jennings
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #289 on Feb 22, 2009, 5:36pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
Arkle I have a copy of the book and quite honestly I would not consider it a good read. If you would like to borrow mine I will gladly post it to you
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Arkle55
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Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #290 on Feb 22, 2009, 9:42pm »		[Quote] [Modify] [Delete]
JENNINGS
Thanks for the offer, but i have read a copy now.
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